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The upcoming Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn that was originally scheduled for Saturday has been postponed a week to the following Saturday. A Track-IQ report will be made available for Oaklawn when the races are rescheduled next week.

https://paulickreport.com/news/horseplayers-category/oaklawn-park-postpones-southwest-stakes-to-next-friday-due-to-inclement-weather

The other Kentucky Derby prep race originally scheduled for Saturday, the $275K G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream, will be held as normal. The weather forecast is partly cloudy skies with a high of 65 degrees.

Entries: Holy Bull S. (G3)

Gulfstream Park, Saturday, January 31, 2026, Race 12

• Grade III
• 1 1/16m
• Dirt 
• $275,000
• 3 yo
• 5:45 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1 Incredibolt (KY)	Jaime A. Torres	124	Riley Mott	9/2
2	2 Roger That Dana (FL)	Renzo Rojas	118	Luis M. Ramirez	20/1
3	3Project Ace (KY)	Corey J. Lanerie	118	Dale L. Romans	20/1
4	4 Global Aviator (KY)	Joe Bravo	118	Rohan G. Crichton	5/1
5	5 Cannoneer (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	118	Brad H. Cox	2/1
98	6 Buetane (KY)	SCRATCHED	0	UNKNOWN	–
7	7 Nearly (FL)	John R. Velazquez	120	Todd A. Pletcher	9/5
8	8 Bravaro (NY)	Tyler Gaffalione	120	Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.	8/1
9	9 Game for It (KY)	Junior Alvarado	118	Chad Summers	30/1

An unspoken truth of horse racing is that it pays to be lucky. Such was the case in the 8th race today at the Fair Grounds, a $12,500 OClm at 1 mi. on the turf, with #1 Coffee County pulling off a huge upset at 24-1. Coffee County made a charge from the outside late at the wire to get up before the favorite, #6 Wicked as Haggart at 3-2 and #8 Southscape at 5-1. In the Track-IQ report for the Fair Grounds, #1 Coffee Country was the tertiary selection with theoretical odds of 6-1, making the horse an overlay four times over. Notable in the race notes on Coffee Country is the mentioning of its breeding match for the mile distance: Coffee Country is a son of New Years Day, who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile in 2013 at 1 1/16 mi (and then was retired). Besides getting a clean trip on the far outside down the stretch, Coffee Country benefited from his projected field-best SPDadj (final speed adjusted for the route distance) and his late pace strength with a LP win probability of 22% (4-1 in equivalent odds). The horse was also fresh after a more than two month lay-off. Coffee Country paid $50 for the win. Placing half-sized win bets on these type of horses with the aim of diversifying can be enormously profitable, like in this race. To see the below images in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner. Scroll down slightly and click on the full-size link in the bottom-left center.

The AI-enabled and Fair Grounds customized program had excellent results today, having the winning horse with its P/S/T selections in eight of the nine races covered, including 6 with the Primary selection (66%). Here is the Track-IQ report for FGX, the results and breakdown of the results.

Click to access fgx0122_trackiq_ironclad_full.pdf

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/FG012226USA-EQB.html

FGX — P/S/T WINS BY RACE (WITH WIN PAYOFF)

Race	Winner	P/S/T Slot	Win Payoff

Race 1

#3 Half Way There

Primary

$3.60

Race 2

#1 Tough Love Torres

Primary

$3.20

Race 4

#6 Boitano

Primary

$5.40

Race 5

#1 Original Sin

Primary

$9.00

Race 6

#3 Remember Mamba

Primary

$3.20

Race 7

#5 A. P.’s Girl

Tertiary

$20.60

Race 8

#11 Lady Iva

Primary

$7.60

Race 9

#6 Island Cabana

Secondary

$5.00

✅ Correct FGX Summary

• P/S/T winners: 8 of 9
• Primary wins: 6
• Secondary wins: 1
• Tertiary wins: 1
• Excluded: Race 3 (winner outside P/S/T)

Ahead of the Pegasus World Cup weekend at Gulfstream, the AI-enabled and Gulfstream customized program had excellent results today in the Track-IQ report. The program had the winner in eight out of the ten races (80%) analyzed with its P/S/T selections, including having the winner in four races with the primary selection (40%). Here is the PDF, race results and breakdown of the results.

Click to access gpx0122_trackiq_ironclad.pdf

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/GP012226USA-EQB.html

✅ GPX — RACES WITH P/S/T WINNER

Race	Winner	P/S/T Slot	Win Payoff
Race 2	#7 Toasttothestones	Secondary	$12.40
Race 3	#4 Silicium (FR)	Tertiary	$9.60
Race 5	#4 Amelia	Secondary	$3.80
Race 6	#8 Running On Time	Primary	$3.20
Race 7	#8 Chloe’s Toy	Primary	$5.20
Race 8	#7 Mish	Primary	$6.40
Race 9	#6 Lynn’s Milky Way	Primary	$6.00
Race 10	#9 Starship Elation	Secondary	$9.80

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📊 SUMMARY

• P/S/T winners: 8 of 10 races
• Primary wins: 4
• Secondary wins: 3
• Tertiary wins: 1
• Best price inside P/S/T: $12.40 (Race 2)

✅ GPX — EXACTA WINS INSIDE P/S/T

Race	Exacta	P/S/T Roles	Exacta Payoff
Race 3	4 – 1	Tertiary → Primary	$17.80
Race 5	4 – 5	Secondary → Tertiary	$8.70
Race 7	8 – 6	Primary → Tertiary	$7.40
Race 8	7 – 4	Primary → Tertiary	$14.50
Race 9	6 – 3	Primary → Secondary	$4.30

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📊 SUMMARY

• Total P/S/T Exacta Hits: 5 races
• Primary-led exactas: 3
• Secondary/Tertiary-led exactas: 2
• Best P/S/T exacta payoff: Race 3 – $17.80
• Cleanest signal: Race 9 (P → S, low chaos, textbook)

For those wondering how the Image-IQ Report can be used to spot value in horses other than with the obvious Model Odds values, there is a section below the Primary, Secondary and Tertiary selections called Value Picks, in which the user can see how specific metrics of the horse like SPD, E1, E2, LP, COMP and WP% are valued in terms of odds, which are converted from their win probabilities and historical win percentage. Ideally, the user is looking for horses that do not have just one metric, whose conversion to odds is below the live odds of the horse but multiple metrics below. Such a situation appeared in the 5th at the Fair Grounds yesterday, a $30K Clm at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt with a projected hot pace, with the #2 horse, Great Escape at 9-1. The horse had three metrics with odds conversions not just below its live odds of 9-1 but also below its M/L of 9-2, including “LP 3.9-1, COMP 1.6-1, WP% 4.4-1”. What this means is that the horse’s late speed, COMP as the sum of its E1, E2 and LP probabilities from the simulation and historical win percentage, adjusted for stakes, had values that were below the M/L price. At 9-1, the market was treating Great Escape as a horse with 10% winning chances rather than a horse who has won 18-20% historically against this level of competition. Its COMP value of 1.6-1 indicated better than 2-1 strength for the horse on a speed component level in the aggregate.

In the race, Great Escape led from start to finish, winning by several lengths. The Primary selection in the Track-IQ report, #8 Yellow Brick, finished second. Great Escape paid $21 for the win and the $1 ex. paid $48.30. This result shows how a quick analysis of the value metrics of the horses can be used to spot a significantly undervalued horse. Pairing this type of discounted horse with the Primary selection is a reasonable exacta strategy that can be very profitable when the heavily discounted horse performs according to his projections and quantitative strength. This race is being mentioned because #2 Great Escape was actually taken in the race and is a real-life example.

Equibase Notes on race 5 at FGX

Click to access FG011926USA5.pdf