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The program had a good result today in the $200K Temperance Hill Stakes in race 10 at Oaklawn (1 1/2 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up), having the winner with its first selection of #11 Lambeth at 2-1. The horse had a total win probability of 22.50%, translating to odds of 3-1. In the race, Lambeth led early on through the first mile before being challenged by #6 Game Warden coming out of the far turn. Lambeth dug in in the one path down the stretch to win by two lengths. Lambeth paid $6.00 for the win. In some interations of the simulations of this race, the program had Game Warden as the second selection and the exacta order correct, 11-6. The $1 ex. paid $17.00.

The program had a nice result today in race 3 at Gulfstream, a $20K OC at 5f on the dirt four four-year-olds, with its second selection, #5 Whirlwind Ride at 9-1. The horse had a total win probability of 19.26%, converting to theoretical odds of about 4-1. Besides projecting early speed with E1 and E2 estimates of 15.5% and 17.3%, Whirlwind Ride had the highest COMP value at 43.2% (7-5 relative strength on a component level in the aggregate) and win percentage at 28.6% (5-2 equivalent). In the race, Whirlwind Ride led through the opening quarter and held on to win by a length. The horse paid $21.60 for the win.

Today at the Fairgrounds is the $1 mil. G2 Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features the undefeated Sam F. Davis winner, #1 John Hancock at 7-2 on the M/L, Lecomte runner-up and Risen Star Stakes show finisher, #6 Built at 4-1, Sunland Derby runner-up, #5 Caldera, and Risen Star Stakes runner-up, #2 Chuck of Gold. The program is favoring #1 John Hancock as its first selection, who has a total win probability of 20.76%, converting to odds of 7-2. That is exactly were he is on the M/L. The horse projects second in final speed with a 28.6% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 16.5%. The second selection is #6 Built with a total win probability of 16.22%, translating to odds of 5-1. Built projects third in final speed with a 20.5% win estimate and has early speed with E1 and E2 estimates of 21.2% and 35.5%. Third is #5 Caldera with a total win probability of 15.35%, converting to theoretical odds of 6-1. Fourth is #3 Tiztastic, who has a total win probability 12.16% but has the highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 27.2% (equating to 3-1 strength). Tiztastic placed 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill in Nov. as a two-year-old and 3rd again in the Southwest at the end of Jan. In the final analysis, this race is wide up with no horse having shorter odds than John Hancock at 7-2. The final speed projections of John Hancock, Built and Caldera are all believable due to their horses having relatively low risk, as indicated by their Coefficient of Variances below 7%. John Hancock has recorded the highest final speed figure in the field at 97 and that was in winning the Sam F. Davis at 1 1/6 mi. Next is Caldera, who recorded a 96 in the 1 1/16 mi. Sunland Derby in finishing second, a race which he lost by only a nose. Both horses finished their last races in duels with other horses with John Hancock digging in to beat Owen Almighty by a length. This is in contrast to Built, who finished 3rd and 10 lenghths behind the winner in the Risen Star, Magnitude. The Brad Cox horse, #9 Instant Replay, is worth mentioning for winning his last race, a $100K OC at 1 1/16 mi. in the Fairgrounds in Feb. Instant Replay projects the highest LP with a 38.2% win estimate, which may prove decisive in this longer, 1 3/16 mi. race. The selections are #1 John Hancock, #6 Built, #5 Caldera and #3 Tiztastic.

The program did well in the 1st races at Tampa Bay and Gulfstream today, having the winners in both with its first selectoins. At Tampa, #7 Indo Maria at 8-5 was the first selection with a total probabilities of 29.49%, converting to theoretical odds of 2-1. The second selection was #5 Smart Joker at 5-2, who had a total win probability of 25.64%, which converted to theoretical odds of 5-2. That was the order of finish (7-5), with #7 Indo Maria holding off Smart Joker late for the win. Not only did the program have the exacta, it hit the tri-fecta cold with #6 Point Liam being the third selection. Indo Maria paid $5.20 for the win.

At Gulfstream, the program had the winner with its first selection of #1 Come Dream with me at 5-2. The horse had a total win probability of 30.58%, converting to odds of 2-1. Come Dream projected strong late speed with a LP win estimate of 42.3%, which he showed in the race down the stretch, as well as a high COMP value at 52.9% (4-5 equivalent strength on a component level in the simulation). Come Dream paid $7.40 for the win.