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As has been discussed on previous occasions, the pool is not always efficient in setting the odds of horses. This was the case again in the 1st race at Tampa today, an $8K claiming race 1 40y on the dirt for three-year-old fillies and mares with the program’s second selection, #5 Lady’s Chant at 13-1. The horse had a 25.90% total win probability, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. Lady Chant projected first in final speed—thanks to its last race when it recorded a SPD of 70—with a win estimate of 42.2% (7-5 equivalent strength in odds) while having the highest win percentage in the field at 20.7% (4-1 equivalent strength in terms of money finishes). Though Lady’s Chant’s risk was a little high with a Coefficient of Variance of 11.82%, it was acceptable considering the potential return with the 13-1 odds. In the race, Lady’s Chant went wire to wire, with the win paying $29.40.

Here are the projections for today’s $250K Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay, a Kentucky Derby prep race, which is run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The program has #7 Poster as its first selection with a total win probability of 22.99%, converting to odds of 3-1. The horse projects second in SPD with a win estimate of 29.2% while having the highest LP value in the field at 59.6% and the second highest win percentage at 20.7%, only behind the M/L favorite, Owen’s, at 21.4%.

Having one of its best results ever, the Turf Program had the tri-fecta horses in the 10th at Santa Anita today, a $61K allowance race on the downhill turf for four-year-olds, with its first three selections of #10 Chrome Flash at 3-1 (3-1 theoretical odds), #2 Ghostly Act at 15-1 (7-2 theoretical odds) and #11 Piper’s Causeway at 9-2 (6-1 theoretical odds). The actual win order was 2-11-10. What you’ll notice about Ghostly Act is that he had a 52% win percentage, equating to less than 1-1 odds strength in terms of money finishes. Hence, Ghostly Act was a second selection because of the 0.4% weighting of win percentage in the main algorithm. Only with this program would you see Ghostly Act’s wins from his race history properly factored in, who won a $50K maiden race before stepping up to win this $61K allowance race. The $2 exacta paid $239.60 and the $1 tri-fecta box paid $474.00. This race shows that if you don’t use the Handicap Wizard, you are missing a lot of the picture in race analysis.

As has always been said about the Pro-Handicap Wizard method, the way to consistent profitability is to find heavily discounted horses, which can be seen in positive expected ROI calculations of the program. Postive ROI values of 100% or more are generally good candidates for selection. In the sixth race at Santa Anita, a $16K claiming race at 1 mi on the dirt for four-year-olds, #9 Travel the Map and #2 Damazio at 13-1 had the highest expected ROIs with values of 331% and 87%. Damazio was undervalued in having a 14% win percentage (6-1 equivalent strength) and a 35.4% COMP value (2-1 equivalent strength) strength while the horse had relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.84%. The COMP value shows the relative strength of a horses components in the simulation in the aggregate against those of the other horses. In the race, Damazio raced mid pack through the opening quarter and half-mile and then saved ground running along the rail until the stretch when he made a move to the center of the track and accelerated to run down the favorite #8 Smokem EZ at 6-5. Damazio paid $29.80 for the win. An actual positive result for this race is shown below.

The Grey Program had a nice result today in the 4th at Tampa, a $5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up, with its first two selections of #6 Supreme Dominance at 5-2 and #4 Breadman at 5-1. That was the exacta order. In the race, Breadman led through much of the way but was caught late by #6 Supreme Dominance down the stretch. The $1 ex. paid $19.50.