The Track-IQ reports for the Fair Grounds and Santa Anita Park will be available today on the Purchase page. Check after 12:00 p.m. CST for the report for Santa Anita.
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Here’s the explanation for why Golden Tempo won the LeComte yesterday over the horses that had been identified as Primary/Secondary/Tertiary in the Track-IQ framework.
Golden Tempo won the LeComte because the race unfolded far outside normal Fair Grounds dirt-route parameters, not because he was overlooked or misread. While the model correctly identified him as the strongest late runner, it did not elevate him into the top win tier under baseline assumptions, since horses dependent on late pace typically require help up front. What made this race different was the pace structure. The opening quarter of 23.72, followed by 47.11 to the half and 1:11.89 to three-quarters, created sustained early stress that developing three-year-olds rarely withstand over 1 1/16 miles at this venue.
That pressure didn’t merely soften the leaders—it dismantled second-call control entirely. Carson Street and Crown the Buckeye were forced into an unsustainable rhythm, and once that structure failed, the race flipped decisively to late flow. Golden Tempo, despite breaking slowly, saved ground under a patient ride and produced a last-to-first rally once the pace collapsed. He didn’t outrun expectations; the race exceeded the collapse threshold. Going forward, early Kentucky Derby prep races with comparable internal fractions will receive an alternate pace-stress analysis to reflect their elevated breakdown risk. This adjustment doesn’t replace the primary read or overvalue closers—it clarifies when race structure is fragile, and when late runners become legitimate win threats rather than contingent outcomes.
Here is the analysis for the G3 $250K LeComte Stakes at the Fair Grounds tomorrow, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. It’s a Kentucky Derby prep race worth Derby 42 pts. total at Churchill, with 20 pts. going to the winner The Track-IQ report for FGX tomorrow includes analysis of the $175K G3 Louisiana Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds.
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Race Breakdown
Stop the Car (ML 8-1; MO 3.4-1) – Primary
Stop the Car appeals here because he looks like a three-year-old who is still on the upswing rather than one who has already shown his full hand. He’s undefeated, but the more important takeaway is how he’s won — without being fully extended or chasing inflated figures. That kind of profile plays well at Fair Grounds, where the dirt tends to reward horses who can carry their energy through the lane instead of those built purely on early speed. This race doesn’t require a dramatic leap forward; it typically rewards a horse who progresses naturally at this stage of the season, and his form suggests that kind of steady development.
The projected shape of the LeComte Stakes also works in his favor. Several contenders want to be involved early, while others are dependent on a pace collapse, leaving a tactical horse with flexibility in an advantageous position. Stop the Car doesn’t need the lead, but he also doesn’t need help from a meltdown, allowing him to stay in range while others sort themselves out. That versatility is often the difference maker in this race. The case here isn’t about flash or résumé; it’s about fit, timing, and upside, and those factors line up cleanly for him on this stage.
#3 Crown the Buckeye (ML 4-1; MO +4.1-1) – Secondary
#3 Crown the Buckeye merits serious consideration as a competitor because his profile speaks to durability and adaptability rather than flash. He has already shown he belongs in deeper waters, and that experience can matter in a race where several entrants are still figuring out what they are. His form suggests a colt who can handle pressure and stay on when the race turns from positioning to resolve, which is often where Fair Grounds separates pretenders from contenders. If the LeComte becomes a test of who can maintain rhythm and composure through the final three furlongs, Crown the Buckeye has already demonstrated that kind of staying power.
#11 Chip Honcho (ML 9-2; MO 6.41) – Tertiary
Chip Honcho fits a different but equally legitimate angle. His appeal lies in tactical intent and forward placement without being reckless, a combination that can prove dangerous in a prep where others are either committed speed types or need significant help late. He doesn’t require a perfect setup to be effective; instead, he can secure position, conserve enough energy, and make the field react to him turning for home. In the LeComte Stakes, that sort of race-shaping presence often keeps a horse involved longer than the betting suggests. Together, Crown the Buckeye’s stamina profile and Chip Honcho’s tactical edge give them credible paths to impact the outcome, even if the spotlight falls elsewhere pre-race.
Video on Stop the Car
The Track-IQ report for GPX had a memorable winning day today, having the the tri-fecta horses in the 6th and the ex. in the 8th races at big odds. In the 6th, a CLM 8000 at 5f on the dirt, the AI-enabled and GPX customized program had the tri-fecta horses with its P/S/T selections of #8 Breezer at 4-1, #4 River of Time at 2-1 and #3 Feeling Macho at 7-1. The tri-fetca went 3-8-4 and paid $61.75 and #33.60 for the ex. And in the 8th race, an OClm 25000 at 7 1/2f off the turf, the program had the ex. order with its Tertiary and Secondary selections of #7 Cruise the Nile at 8-1 and #2 Quereme Pass at 4-1. The $1. ex. paid $44.75.
Race 6
Race 8
The AI-enabled and Aqueduct customized program had some excellent results today. First, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary selections had win coverage in all races covered (7/7). Second, the program had the exacta order correct with ex. boxes (w/P/S/T) in four out of seven races. Here is today’s Track-IQ report for AQU and the breakdown and grading of the results.
https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/AQU011526USA-EQB.html
🧾 AQU 1-15-2026 — P / S / T WIN COVERAGE & GRADING
| Race | Winner | P/S/T Tier | $2 Win Payoff | Win Covered? | Race Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | #3 Magnanimous Max | Secondary | $4.52 | ✅ | A- |
| R2 | #4 Autumn’s Turn | Tertiary | $14.08 | ✅ | B |
| R3 | #3 Atarah | Primary | $3.24 | ✅ | A |
| R4 | #6 Lost Horizon | Primary | $2.80 | ✅ | A |
| R5 | #5 Capt Jax Parrow | Primary | $12.08 | ✅ | A+ (Chaos) |
| R6 | #4 Ridgewood Runner | Tertiary | $9.86 | ✅ | B |
| R7 | #8 Mad Banker | Secondary | $8.16 | ✅ | B- |
📊 SUMMARY
- Winners covered by P/S/T: 7 / 7 (100%)
- Primary winners: 3 (R3, R4, R5)
- Secondary winners: 2 (R1, R7)
- Tertiary winners: 2 (R2, R6)
- Total of $2 win payoffs (raw): $54.74
🧠 HOW TO READ THE GRADES
- A / A+ → Winner identified and structure supported monetization (especially R5).
- B / B- → Winner identified, but value sat deeper (needed structure/coverage).
- A- → Winner identified cleanly; payoff modest or place horse sat outside P/S/T.
Bottom line: This card shows perfect win identification by P/S/T
✅ Exacta winners inside the P/S/T box: 4 of 7 races
The three races:
- Race 2: 4–6 (T–S) — $44.47 ($1)
- Race 3: 3–5 (P–T) — $3.57 ($1)
- Race 6: 4–5 (T–S) — $9.55 ($1)
The four misses:
- R1: 3–4 (place horse outside P/S/T)
- R4: 6–2 (place horse outside P/S/T)
- R5: 5-8 (place horse outside P/S/T)
- R7: 8–7 (place horse outside P/S/T)
Totals (P/S/T exacta boxes, $1 terms):
- Hits: 3 / 7 (≈43%)
- Total $1 exacta return from hits: $57.59 versus $42 cost.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 