As a way to help users and provide them additional notes on how to use and navigate the Track-IQ Reports, a link to a notes document has been posted below the track selections on the Purchase Page. The notes explain the Track-IQ’s theoretical approach to horse handicapping in more detail and offer specific strategy tips on evaluating races and selecting horses. The notes can also be found below.
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On Saturday at the Fair Grounds, the Track-IQ framework had the winner in the G1 $500K Risen Star Stakes with its Primary selection in #4 Paladin, who was not the lights out favorite his 3-5 odds suggested; rather his 3-1 theoretical odds were more appropriate after barely beating #5 Chip Honcho at 7-1 at the wire. Chip Honcho was the 4th selection in the ordering. The framework did have the superfecta ordering correct with its 1 – 4 horses with #1 Universe, the third selection, coming in fourth.
G1 $500K Risen Star Stakes
The Track-IQ framework had the winner today in the $150K American Stakes at Oaklawn, run at 6f on the dirt, with its Primary selection of #5 Majestic Oops at 2-1. That was near the theoretical odds of the horse at a little under 3-1. The Secondary selection, #3 Benedetta, came in third at 5-2 versus theoretical odds of 3-1.
Track-IQ reports will be available today, Friday, Feb. 13, and this weekend for Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Santa Anita and Tampa Bay. Tomorrow is another Kentucky Derby prep race—the $500K Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds at the Fair Grounds.
Ahead of the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds this weekend, the Track-IQ framework had an excellent result in the 3rd race today, having the exacta order correct with its Primary and Secondary selections of #3 Donnegal Moonshine at 7-2 and #2 High Stakes Hustler at 4-1. That was near their theoretical odds of 3-1 and 4-1. This was also a race in which there was a heavy favorite in #4 Sir Liam at 3-2. Donnegal Moonshine paid $9.40 for the win and the $1 ex. paid $21.70.
In relation to the additional notes on Track-IQ that were just released, a good example of how Field Risk can be used to one’s advantage was seen in the 8th race at the Fairgrounds, a $55K Alw at 1 1/16 on the turf. The Field Risk of only 5.38% indicated high confidence in the Primary/Secondary/Tertiary picks as whole, including #8 Faber at 7-1 versus 4.3-1 theoretical odds. According to the metrics, #8 Faber was a gift at 7-1 in having a 76% SPD , 23% E2, and 28% LP win probabilities (projected in the simulation), in addition to low Coefficient of Variance of 4.0%. So in this race with the low Field Risk, expanded win coverage to Faber as the Secondary choice at 7-1 was absolutely warranted and turned out to be profitable. Here taking low risk with a relatively high win probability of about 19% (Faber’s 4.3-1 odds) was met with high reward. The horse paid $16.60 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 