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#4 Idiomatic at 4-5 was a heavy favorite yesterday in the G1 $500K Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga, which was at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. However, the Grey Program was showing a different picture of the race, where Idiomatic was not as strong of a favorite as the live odds indicated and the eventual winner, #3 Raging Sea, was a significant overlay at 6-1 versus theoretical odds of 7-2. Raging Sea projected first in E1 and E2 at 41.2% and 41.4% (7-5 strength in odds). Even on a SPD basis with a win estimate of 20.9%, Raging Sea was projecting 4-1 strength and had a strong COMP at 39.5%, indicating 7-5 strength at a component level in the aggregate in the simulation. The race illustrates the insights and value the statistics of the program, which in this race showed that Idiomatic was an overvalued and beatable favorite while the horse that the pool overlooked in Raging Sea actually measured up statistically and in the projections to contend for the win. In the race, Raging Sea did not run at the front but stalked from well off the pace, conserving energy until the far turn when the horse made a wide move and then accelerated down the stretch to come up in time to beat Idiomatic at the wire.

The Grey Program had a nice result today in the 5th at Saratoga, a $16K claming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, having the exacta order with its first two selection of #5 More Vino at 3-2 and #6 Barrell Craft at 5-1. In the race, More Vino broke out to lead with Barrell Craft right behind him, and this is how it stayed to the finish. The $2 exacta, 5-6 , paid $28.80.

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The Grey Program had another good result in the 8th at Saratoga, a $35K claiming race at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three- and four-year olds. The first selection was #7 Game Warden at 5-1 with a total win probability of 33.09%, translating to theoretical odds of just under 2-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a 63.9% win estimate (3-5 strength in odds) and first in LP with a 65.4% along with having average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.72%. In the race, Game Warden ran down #6 Rocketeer down the stretch, who had been leading early on. Game Warden showed his superior late kick as indicated in the high LP projection. The horse paid $12.60 for the win.

The Grey Program had another good result in the 11th at Gulfstream, a $25K optional claiming race at 5 1/2 f for three-year-olds, having the exacta order with its first two selections of #6 King Cab at 9-2 and #5 Rolling On at 8-5. The $1 exacta (6-5) paid $14.30. In the race, King Cab broke out to an early lead and held on to beat a late charging #5 Rolling On.

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The Grey Program hit the tri-fecta cold in the 9th at Gulfstream today, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares. The first three selections were #5 Funtastica at 2-1, #11 Musical Journey at 9-2 and #2 Na Dudette at 8-1. That was the order of finish in the tri-fecta. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $37.15.

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