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The program had some nice results today at Saratoga, including in the one graded stakes races in the 9th—the $250K G2 Glen Falls Stakes at 1 1/2 mi. on the turf for four-year olds fillies and mares—with #7 McKulick winning at 2-1. The Turf program had McKulick as its first selection with theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projected first in final speed with a 41.5% win estimate (7-5 equivalent in odds) and had the highest win percentage at 25.6%. A horse that was extremely undervalued, #4 Parnac at 21-1, came in second. Parnac was a heavy overlay as a fourth selection with theoretical odds of 8-1, including having a 15.3% win percentage (6-1 equivalent in odds) and 18.5% COMP (9-2 equivalent in odds). McCulick paid $6.60 for the win and Parnac $16.20 for the place. McCulick won the same race a year ago.

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In the 6th, a $90K maiden race for two-year olds, the program hit the exacta cold with its first two selections of #3 McDiesel at 4-1 and #8 Iron Max at 7-2. The $2 exacta paid $38.80.

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Another race worth mentioning is the 8th, a $45K Optional Claiming race at 1 mi. for three-year-olds. #4 Jackson Heights won at 13-1 versus having theoretical odds of 8-1. What stood out about Jackson Heights was his win percentage of 15.6%, the highest in the field. On that basis alone his odds should have been 6-1 but he was 13-1 instead—a bargain for being the class of the field. In the race, the horse snuck up the rail down the stretch and snatched victory from #3 Dr. Kraft at the wire. Jackson heights paid $28 for the win. This handicapper had him just to show, which still paid $5.80.

The Turf Program crushed it in the finale at Saratoga today in the 11th with its first selection of #12 Hush of Storm at 7-1. The horse had a total win probability of 34.51% despite having zero win percentage. Its win probability was all due to its projections, where it projected first in final speed with a 56.5% win estimate, all coming from a single speed figure in the horse’s history. The horse had a 92.1% COMP as well, signaling dominant strength in the horse’s components in the simulation relative to those of the other horses. Hush of a Storm did not disappoint, making a move wide around the far turn and then accelerating down the stretch to win impressively by two lengths. Here using only Turf data in the analysis was advantageous in identifying Hush of a Storm as the best horse in the field from his projected speed. Hush of a Storm paid $16.80 for the win.

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Below are the results using all the data, both dirt and turf. #12 Hush and a Storm is the fourth selection and does not project dominantly like he does in the Turf Model, which uses only turf data. Essentially, the Turf Program solved Hush and a Storm as the best horse on turf from the calculations.

The Turf Program and winners with its first selections in both graded stakes races at Del Mar yesterday. In the 7th race, the $100K Oceanside Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds, the program had #2 Formidable Man as its first selection at 3-1. And in the 9th, the $200K San Clemente Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies, the program had #6 Iscreamuscream as its first selection at 6-5.

$100K Oceanside Stakes

$200K San Clemente Stakes

The Turf program had the winner in the G2 $600K United Nations at Monmouth on Saturday with its first selection of #3 Get Smokin at 9-1. The horse had a total win probability of 34.56% while projecting first in final speed with a win estimate of 56.8% (4-5 strength). Its win probability converted to theoretical odds of 9-5, making the horse a heavy overlay at 9-1. Get Smokin led from start to finish, holding off #1 Grand Sonata at 25-1 at the wire in a photo finish. Get Smokin paid $20.20 for the win.

Tomorrow at Monmouth Park is the $1 mil. Haskell Stakes. It is run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race has a field of eight and features Belmont Stakes winner, #1 Dornoch, Belmont Stakes runner-up, #7 Mindframe, and Florida Derby Winner, Fierceness. The program is favoring #7 Mindframe with a total win probability of 29.17%, translating to theoretical odds of about 5-2. Mindframe projects first in final speed with a win estimate of 57.3% while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 4.76%. Second is #1 Dornoch with a total win probability of 23.86%, converting to theoretical odds of near 3-1. Dornoch projects second in final speed with a 33.6% win estimate while having higher risk than Mindframe with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.5%. Third is #5 Fierceness with a total win probability of 22.31%, which translates to theoretical odds of 7-2. In spite of the horse being erratic, Fierceness has the highest win percentage at 30.6% due to his wins in the Florida Derby and the BC Juvenile. Fierceness projects first in LP with a win estimate of 88.3% and has a decent COMP value of 37.4% (2-1 odds equivalent). In the final analysis, the program ranks Mindframe a little higher than Dornoch in win probability because of Mindframe’s higher projection in final speed, which is due to the horse being more consistent with his final speed figures at a higher level, whereas Dornoch has shown more variability in his final speed figures. Dornoch had the better trip in the Belmont Stakes along the rail while Mindframe showed himself to be a little green in his third start by veering off line down the stretch. If Mindframe can tighten up his run down the stretch in this race, he should be in a good position to win over Dornoch who statistically is the lesser horse. Whether Fierceness will show up in this race is any one’s guess. In his last race in the Kentucky Derby, he was a non factor, finishing 15th and twenty-four lengths back. His 5-2 odds on the M/L comes all from his win percentage and not his projections. The Handicap Wizard puts Fierceness lower at 7-2 for not projecting in final speed at all because of his disastrous trip in the Kentucky Derby.