The program had a good result in the 4th race today at Gulfstream, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-old fillies. The first two selections were #1 Smart Spending at 2-1 and #8 She Fled the Scene at 2-1. This was the order of the exacta, with the $2 exacta paying $23.
The program had a nice win in the 5th at Belmont at the Big A, a $35K optional claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #6 Call Her Bluff with a total win probability of 30.95%, converting to theoretical odds of about 2-1. Her final odds were 5-1. Call Her Bluff projected first in final speed with a 54.4% win estimate (4-5 odds strength) and had the highest LP in the field at 48.5%. Call Her Bluff took the lead on the inside coming out of the far turn and never looked back, winning by four lengths over #1 Just Music at 3-1.
The program had good results today at Parx, including having winners with its first selections in the 2nd #4 Pontiffany), 3rd (#3 Summersattheshore), 4th (#2 Cloudytimes), 7th (#4 Big Dreamer) and 10th races (#4 Teewinot Pass). The first four were “chalk” winners at 5-2 odds or less, but the horse that won in the 10th in #Teewinot Pass was 9-1 compared to theoretical odds of 7-2. This was one time where the horse’s risk actually worked in his favor rather than against him. Teewinot Pass had a SPD win estimate of 32.3% (about 2-1 equivalent) and also a COMP of 45.5%, indicating the horse had about 1-1 strength against the other horses in terms of their speed components in the aggregate. However, Teewinot Pass had a CV value of 20.99%, which is high, as well as a low win percentage of only 3.6%. In the race, the horse fortunately ran to his maximum potential and put away the favorite, #2 Mucho Macho Eddie at 8-5. For the Parx card, the program had winners with its first selection in five out of eight non-maiden races for $5.60, $4.60, $3.00, $5.40 and $20.00. Its ROI was 141% (($38.6-$16)/$16).
Race 2
Race 3
Race 4
Race 7
The Grey program had a very nice result in the 7th at Parx today, a $15K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its first two selections of #1 Gladriel at 7-1 (3-1 theoretical odds) and #4 R Funny Bizness at 5-2 (4-1 theoretical odds). These were the exacta horses even though R Funny Bizness and #8 Valiant Majesty were both the favorites at 5-2. Gladriel had the highest win percentage in the field at 20.8% (4-1 equivalent) while also having the highest projections for E1 and E2 at 92.0% and 56.0%, showing his speed profile fit the 6f distance. Gladriel paid $16.40 for the win while the $1 exacta paid $28.10.
The $1 mil. Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill saw an interesting result today, with the program’s third selection, #7 Kingsbarn at 9-1 (7-1 theoretical odds), getting the upset over #2 First Mission at 4-5 and #9 Skippylongstocking at 4-1. In the race, First Mission broke out to the lead and Skippylongstocking and Kingsbarn stalked from 2nd and 3rd positions. The order stayed this way until after the half mile point when #4 Disarm at 4-1 began to challenge the leaders on the inside. Then Kingsbarn swooped outside around the far turn and catapulted to the lead down the stretch past First Mission. #1 Pyrenees gained late down the middle of the track but ended up a length behind while Skippylongstocking trailed close to finish 3rd. With odds of 9-1 for Kingsbarn and 10-1 for #1 Pyrenees, the $1 exacta paid $85.82. As a third selection, Kingsbarn was an overlay at 9-1 compared to theoretical odds of 7-1, but it would have been taken shrewd handicapping to find Pyrenees too as the second selection. The horse did project strong late speed with a LP win estimate of 54.3% against the field.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 