The Turf Program had another good result in the 6th race at Saratoga, a $35K OC at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The program had #5 Unleash the Power at 6-5 as its first selection, who had a total win probability of 42.42%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-5. The horse projected fairly dominantly in the final speed with a 61.8% win estimate while having a whopping 81.8% COMP value. In the race, Unleash the Power made a move to the outside around the far turn and accelerated down the stretch to get past #1 Gilded Cracken at 4-1, who had led most of the race. Unleash the Power paid $4.50 for the win.
In the 2nd race at Saratoga, a $75K maiden race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for for three-year olds and up, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection of #7 Fly Right at 4-1. The horse had a total win probability of 59.74%, converting to odds of 3-5. Yes, you saw that correctly, 3-5! Thus, Fly Right was a huge overlay, who projected first in SPD with a 49.8% win estimate and had the highest win percentage in the field at 89.2%. Statistically, Fly Right was as much of a lock as you will ever see in horse racing, and he did not disappoint. In the race, Fly Right stalked 1A Paxsational until around the far turn and then took the lead and held on down the stretch. Fly Right paid $10.20 for the win in an easy win with the program.
The program got off to a good start at Gulfstream today, having the tri-fecta order of the horses in the first race with its first three selections. The Turf Progam had #4 First Shot Fired at 7-5 as its first selection with a total win probability of 22.07%, converting to theoretical odds of 7-2. The second selection and eventual winner was #2 Chromotion at 5-1, who had a total win probability of 18.77%, equating to theoretical odds of 4-1. Chromotion was a slight overlay. The third selection was #5 Line Astray at 8-1 with a total win probability of 14.77%, translating to theoretical odds of 6-1. In the race, Chromotion broke well from the gate and took the early lead. He would keep the lead throughout, finishing couple lengths ahead of Line Astray, who came in second. Finishing third was favorite, First Shot Fired. With Chromotion being 5-1 and Line Astray 8-1, the $1 exacta paid $46.80 and the $0.50 tri-fecta paid $67.50. This was a nice result for the program in a wide-open race with twelve horses.
The program had some nice results today at Saratoga, including in the one graded stakes races in the 9th—the $250K G2 Glen Falls Stakes at 1 1/2 mi. on the turf for four-year olds fillies and mares—with #7 McKulick winning at 2-1. The Turf program had McKulick as its first selection with theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projected first in final speed with a 41.5% win estimate (7-5 equivalent in odds) and had the highest win percentage at 25.6%. A horse that was extremely undervalued, #4 Parnac at 21-1, came in second. Parnac was a heavy overlay as a fourth selection with theoretical odds of 8-1, including having a 15.3% win percentage (6-1 equivalent in odds) and 18.5% COMP (9-2 equivalent in odds). McCulick paid $6.60 for the win and Parnac $16.20 for the place. McCulick won the same race a year ago.
In the 6th, a $90K maiden race for two-year olds, the program hit the exacta cold with its first two selections of #3 McDiesel at 4-1 and #8 Iron Max at 7-2. The $2 exacta paid $38.80.
Another race worth mentioning is the 8th, a $45K Optional Claiming race at 1 mi. for three-year-olds. #4 Jackson Heights won at 13-1 versus having theoretical odds of 8-1. What stood out about Jackson Heights was his win percentage of 15.6%, the highest in the field. On that basis alone his odds should have been 6-1 but he was 13-1 instead—a bargain for being the class of the field. In the race, the horse snuck up the rail down the stretch and snatched victory from #3 Dr. Kraft at the wire. Jackson heights paid $28 for the win. This handicapper had him just to show, which still paid $5.80.
The Turf Program crushed it in the finale at Saratoga today in the 11th with its first selection of #12 Hush of Storm at 7-1. The horse had a total win probability of 34.51% despite having zero win percentage. Its win probability was all due to its projections, where it projected first in final speed with a 56.5% win estimate, all coming from a single speed figure in the horse’s history. The horse had a 92.1% COMP as well, signaling dominant strength in the horse’s components in the simulation relative to those of the other horses. Hush of a Storm did not disappoint, making a move wide around the far turn and then accelerating down the stretch to win impressively by two lengths. Here using only Turf data in the analysis was advantageous in identifying Hush of a Storm as the best horse in the field from his projected speed. Hush of a Storm paid $16.80 for the win.
Below are the results using all the data, both dirt and turf. #12 Hush and a Storm is the fourth selection and does not project dominantly like he does in the Turf Model, which uses only turf data. Essentially, the Turf Program solved Hush and a Storm as the best horse on turf from the calculations.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 