Category: Uncategorized

In the finale at Parx today in the 10th, a $5K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds, the program had the order of the exacta with its first two selections but in reverse order. Both horses went off at long odds, with the winner, #8 Angry Man having odds of 9-1, and the place horse, #9 Jacohare having odds of 7-1. Angry Man projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 38.9% while Jacohare projected second with 30.7%. This was the order of finish. Jacohare was the higher selection in the program because of his 12.3% win percentage versus 2.3% for Angry Man. The $1 exacta, 8-9, paid $92.60. In some iterations of the program (meaning when you hit the calculate button again), the selection order of the exacta comes up correct with 8-9 on top.

Both the Grey and Turf programs had good results yesterday at Saratoga and Gulfstream. In the 9th race at Saratoga yesterday, a $62.5K optional claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf, the Turf Program revealed some interesting data with the #1 horse, Tidal Wave, who was in post four. As the third selection with theoretical odds of 8-1, Tidal Forces projected strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 41.7% and 44.4%. The horse also had a COMP of 27.8%, indicating that the horse projected with almost 2-1 strength on a component level in the simulation. The program revealed strength in the horse on a pure data level that was not observable in relating his final speed or win percentage data to the other horses. With that value, Tidal Wave was not a candidate for win but a strong candidate for place as the horse with the second strongest COMP in the field. In the race, Tidal Wave with Javier Castellano aboard made a nice move to the outside around the far turn to give himself running room and then accelerated down the stretch into second place before the wire, edging out the favorite, #8 Irish Aces at 1-1, who finished 3rd. Tidal Forces paid $19.80 for the place. The race illustrates how good things can happen when having faith in the program’s calculations.

The Turf program had the winner with its first selection of #5 Twirling Queen in race 9 at Saratoga—the $150K Corononation Stakes—which was run at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year-old fillies. Twirling Queen had a total win probability of 40.63%, translating to theoretical odds of 7-5 compared to final odds of 7-2. The horse projected first in final speed with a 54.6% win estimate (4-5 odds equivalent) and had the highest E1 and E2 win estimates of 100% and 100%, suiting the 5 1/2 f distance. The horse beat the favorite, #6 Ever So Sweet at 2-1, who led early on past the half-mile pole but then faded around the far turn.

The Grey program had a nice result in the 9th race at Gulfstream today, a $16K claiming race off the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. #8 Platinum Rocker was the first selection with a total win probability of 27.09% (5-2 odds equivalent) compared to final odds of 4-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a 50.9% win estimate (1-1 odds equivalent) while having slightly higher risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 11.54%. In the race, Platinum Rocker led from start to finish, beating two favorites in #10 Bellweather at 7-5 and #7 Miss Holly at 2-1. The finish was exciting with Platinum Rocker digging in against two challengers with less than a length lead for the last sixteenth of the race. Platinum Rocker paid $10.40 for the win.

There was a good opportunity with the Turf Program in race 3 at Saratoga today, a $100K maiden race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. The program had as its first selection #1a Storm Ready at 4-1 (2-1 theoretical odds) while its second selection was #8 Inherent Promise at 10-1 compared to having theoretical odds of about 5-2. Projecting second in final speed with a 40.5% win estimate (7-5 equivalent), a 53.9% COMP and a 16.3% win percentage (6-1 equivalent), Inherent Promise was a strong candidate for a win or place wager. In the race, Inherent Promise saved ground by staying on the one path on the back stretch in sixth position until the far turn when the horse gained ground and then found clear running room along the rail. The horse sped up to take second before finishing a length back of the winner, #7 Clever Mischief at 5-1, who was a foreign horse. Inherent Promise paid $10.00 for the place.