The program had a good result today in the 4th at Belmont at the Big A, a $50k allowance race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The first two selections in #1 Certified Loverboy at 6-5 and #3 Storming Chrome at 7-2 were the exacta horses in the same order. The $2 exacta paid $18.80.
The program had the superfecta order correct in the 3rd race at Belmont at the Big A, a $45K claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years old and up, with its selections of #6 Khali Magic at 2-5, #3 Cinderella’s Curse at 2-1, #5 Racing Colors at 11-1 and #4 Krystalheir at 9-1. While this was a good result, the $0.10 superfecta paid only $0.51 with five horses in the field.
Having had some race days cancelled recently due to the extreme heat in South Florida, Gulfstream was back in action today. In race 7, an $8K optional claiming race at 5f, the program had a nice result with its 1st selection of #3 Truth and Honesty, who at 7-2 won over #1 Raka Raka Cruz, which was the third selection at 3-1. Truth and Honesty was valued at 7-2, which is exactly where he went off at. In the race, Raka Raka Cruz was cruising down the final stretch when he was caught by a surging Truth and Honesty at the wire in a photo finish. The race once again shows the accuracy of the odds of the program, with the favorite’s theoretical odds equaling his final odds. Truth and Honesty paid $9.60.
The program had the exacta horses in the finale at Parx today in race ten, a $25K optional claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for three-year-olds, though the order was reversed. The first selection was #7 Secured Landing with a total probability of 26.98%, translating into theoretical odds of 5-2 compared to final odds of 4-1. The second selection was #9 Prince Colton with a total win probability of 21.18%, equating to theoretical odds of 7-2 versus final odds of 6-5. Secured Landing projected 1st in SPD with a 40.2% win probability but also had a high Coefficient of Variance at 25.14%, because of a 51 final speed figure the horse recorded in its first race, which was much lower than the figures in his other two races. The pool discounted Secured Landing’s higher risk by assigning the horse higher odds. Prince Colton, on the other hand, had a low CV value of 6.39% while having a SPD win estimate of 29.9% (about 5-2 equivalent) and the highest win percentage of 23.7% (about 3-1). Prince Colton was undoubtedly made an underlay because of his win percentage. In the race, Prince Colton broke to the early lead while Secured Landing stalked from third position to the half mile pole. Secured Landing then accelerated around the far corner and dueled with Prince Colton down the stretch before coming up just short. The race illustrates how close the program is with its projections despite Secured Landing’s close second place finish.
Thanks to a user pointing this race out, the Turf Program had a very nice result today in the 6th at Belmont at Aqueduct, a $62.5k optional claiming race at 1 3/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up. The first selection was #6 English Conqueror with a total win probability of 26.65%, translating into theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse went off at 11-1. In the race, #7 Beuys led for most of the race until English Conqueror found a lane in the center down the stretch and won a duel with Beuys by a nose. English Conqueror was a good choice in this situation because of his high SPD (40.3%), E1, E2 and COMP estimates along with having relatively low risk. The horse paid $24.60 for the win. The user that gave the tip on this race hit the exacta using the program that paid $132.60. To see the images in full-size, click on the image and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the full-resolution link in the center.
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