The program had a good result today on the day before the Belmont Stakes in the 2nd race at Saratoga, a $62.5K optional claiming race at 1 1/4 on the dirt for three-year olds. As a fourth selection, Perform #8 had favorable metrics, including theoretical odds of 7-1 versus final odds of 18-1. The horse was being discounted in terms of final speed projections, win percentage and COMP with values of 14.8% (6-1 theoretical odds), 9.9% (9-1 theoretical odds) and 29.0% (3-1 theoretical odds), respectively. It’s strength in COMP with a 29.0% value indicated the horse had 3-1 strength on a speed component level in the aggregate while having average risk with a Coefficient of variance of 8.11%. In the race, Perform chased the favorite, #1 Arthur’s Ride, for most of the race but was able to hold on for place. The place paid $13.00. The race shows how value can be found using not only total win probability, but also the individual metrics, which COMP sticking out as relatively strong.
On Saturday is $2 mil Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners in #3 Mystik Dan and #1 Seize the Gray as well as Kentucky Derby runner-up, #9 Sierra Leone, and #10 Mindframe, who is undefeated in two races. The program has Seize the Grey as its first selection with a 32.82% win probability, converting to theoretical odds of 2-1 compared to 8-1 on the M/L. It is unclear why Seize the Grey would have a higher M/L than Sierra Leone at 9/5, when Seize the Grey beat Mystik Dan by two and a quarter lengths in the Preakness while Mystik Dan edged out Sierra Leone earlier in the Kentucky Derby by a nose. This might be a case of Sierra Leone getting too much credit for his late speed, though Sierra Leone comes into this race fresh with 35 days off after skipping the Preakness. Seize the Grey projects first in SPD with a 42.4% and has acceptable risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.77%. The horse also projects first in E1 and E2 with win estiamtes of 84.8% and 69.5% along with the highest COMP value of 73.5%, indicating that Seize the Grey is by far the strongest horse on a speed component level in the aggregate. The second selection is #3 Mystik Dan with a 26.52% total win probability, converting to odds of 5-2 compared to being 5-1 on the M/L. Mystik Dan projects second in final speed with a 31.7% win estimate while having the highest win percentage in the field at 31.1% due to the horse’s win in the Kentucky Derby. Third is a new shooter, #11 Mindframe, with a 14.83% total win probability. His theoretical odds of 6-1 are above his M/L of 3.5%, making him an underlay. Mindframe is the wild card in this race, who as a son of Florida Derby winner, Constitution , comes in undefeated in two starts, including winning a $100K optional claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. at Churchill at the beginning of May. Mindframe projects 1st in LP with a 100% value, which is off the charts for a G1 race like this. Horse with LP values of 50% can be considered very strong win contenders, and Mindframe has a 100% value, indicating no horse comes close to his late speed. The horse has proven himself with LP values of 105 and 104 in his last two races. The only horse to have a higher LP value is Mystik Dan, who recorded an LP of 112 in the Southwest Stakes. Fourth is #9 Sierra Leone with a 13.45% total win probability, translating to theoretical odds of 6-1 versus 9-5 on the M/L. In the final analysis, Seize the Grey deserves more respect as the horse who is going to be on the pace with blistering speed. He will be running away from the field to the quarter pole, and then will leave it to Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and Mindframe to catch him. The two horses most likely to do this are Sierra Leone and Mindframe. When Mindframe is removed and the calculations are re-run, Sierra Leone shows a respectable 40% LP value and a 28.3% win percentage, putting him in the 3-1 range. This handicapper believes that Mindframe is the real deal, and with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard he will be a serious threat to Seize the Grey. The question remains how well Mystik Dan can bounce back at the 1 1/4 mi. distance after his disappointing 2nd place finish in the Preakness, who flattened out down the stretch with only a 86 LP value. With his consistency, Mindframe, even with the 3.2% win percentage, seems to be the better horse in this spot but will be tested unlike he has been before. The final selectoins are #1 Seize the Grey, #3 Mystik Dan, #10 Mindframe and #9 Sierra Leone.
One final race worth mentioning today was the 10th race at Belmont at the Big A, an $80K allowance race at 6f on the turf for three-year-olds and up. While the Turf Program did not have the winner with its first selection, it did have the three tri-fecta horses among its top three selections, which were #11 Russi at 8-5, #7 Li’Lang at 8-1 and #4 Power Attack at 7-1. Power Attack was the winner with theoretical odds of 5-1. The odds favorite was #5 Big Prankster at 8-5, who was the program’s 5th selection. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $78.75. This result shows once again the value of the Turf Program as a handicapping tool to complement the Grey version for dirt races. For whatever reason, the post positions in the Brisnet digital file did not match the post positions of the horses in the actual race.
Another good result for the Turf Program today was in the 5th at Belmont at the Big A, an $80K allowance race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #4 Can’t Fool Me with a total win probability of 20.92%, equating to theoretical odds of 7-2. The horse went off at 11-1. Can’t Fool Me projected first in final speed with 45.5% win estimate and had the highest LP estimate in the field at 41.5%. In the race, Can’t Fool Me was six wide coming out of the far turn and then accelerated down the stretch to nearly get an upset win over #5 Succulent, who also ran a big race at 12-1. Even with the place, Can’t Fool Me paid $13.40.
The program had another nice result today at Belmont at the Big A in the 9th race, a $12,500 claiming race a 1 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #4 Valencia Day with a total win probability of 23.96%, equating to theoretical odds of about 3-1 versus final odds of 6-1. The horse was the class in the race with a 27.3% win probability (again about 3-1 equivalent) while also having fairly strong E1 and E2 estimates and the highest COMP value in the field at 59.3%. The COMP value suggested the horse had 4-5 strength on the component level in the aggregate. In the race, #4 Valencia Day took charge down the final stretch and never looked back. This is exactly the type of setup a handicapper should be looking for with a first selection that is an overlay. Valencia Day paid $14.20 with the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 