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Here are the updated projections for the Preakness after the scratch of #4 Muth. There are several things worth paying attention to now. One is Imagination’s 35% COMP value, indicating 2-1 strength for the horse on component level (i.e., E1, E2 and LP) in the aggregate. Imagination’s odds could well fall in the 3-1 to 5-1 range, if not lower. Seize the Grey’s COMP is also relative high at 27.7%, suggesting 3-1 strength. Tuscan Gold with his 26.2% SPD and 18.9% COMP estimates appears to have 3-1 to 4-1 strength with those metrics versus his 8-1 M/L.

On Saturday is the second leg of the Triple Crown—the $2 mil G1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico—run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features a stellar field, including Kentucky Derby winner, #5 Mystik Dan, Arkansas Derby winner, #4 Muth, Louisiana Derby winner, #3 Catching Freedom and Pat Day Mile winner, #6 Seize the Grey. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #5 Mystik Dan as its first selection with a total win probability of 27.50%, translating into theoretical odds of 5-2. This is exactly where Mystik Dan’s is on the M/L. The horse projects first in final speed with a 29.2% win estimate while also having the highest win percentage in the field at 38.2%, thanks to his win in the $5 mil. Kentucky Derby. Second is Bob Baffert trained #4 Muth with a total win probability of 19.53%, equating to theoretical odds of 4/1 (8/5 on the M/L). Muth projects third in final speed with a 19.9% win estimate (4-1 equivalent) and has the second highest win percentage at 21.8% (7-2 equivalent). Third is #8 Tuscan Gold with a total win probability of 13.58%, translating to theoretical odds of 6-1 versus 8-1 on the M/L. Tuscan Gold projects 2nd in final speed with a 24.5% win estimate (3-1 equivalent). Fourth is #6 Seize the Grey with a 10.72% total win probability (9-1 equivalent) compared to 15-1 on the M/L. The race looks like it will be a close contest between the two favorites in Mystik Dan and Muth. Muth is favored on the M/L at 8/5 for having beaten Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby in late March. Mystik Dan finished 3rd in that race and six lengths behind Muth. Muth comes into Preakness rested after having been off for 49 days whereas Mystik Dan is coming off a short two-week layoff after winning the Kentucky Derby. Consequently, Mystik Dan is in a bit of tough spot here against his rival. As a son of Good Magic, Muth has won his last two races, both graded stakes with the last one being the G1 Arkansas Derby. The third and fifth selections, Tuscan Gold and Catching Freedom, finished 3rd and 1st, respectively, in the Louisiana Derby. In that race, Catching Freedom came on strong down the stretch to beat Tuscan Gold by 1 3/4 lengths. To see the image below in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” on the bottom-right. Then scroll down and click on the link in the center.

The 10th race at Belmont today had another good result for the program. It had the order of the exacta with its 2nd and 3rd selections in #7 Midtownlights at 10-1 and #5 Broderie at 9-2. Midtownlights was the second selection because of its win percentage of 27.8%, the highest in the field. That equates roughly to 3-1 fair value., indicating the horse was priced at a significant discount at 10-1. Often times, classy horses or horses with high win percentages who have fallen out of form tend to bounce back with a strong performance. This is what happened here with Midtownlights. The favorite #2 Pitchclock at 6-5 was a non-factor as a fourth selection.

The program had another good result today in the 4th at Gulfstream, a $6.25K claiming race run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The first selection was #4 Boldness at 2-1 compared to theoretical odds of 5-2. Boldness projected first in final speed at 39.2% and had a high COMP value of 56.5%. The program generally does well with its first selections at Gulfstream, and this race was no exception.

The program had a good result in race for at Churchill today, a $50K allowance race at 6 1/2f for fillies and mares, with its first selection of #1 Greek Heiress at 2-1. That was very close to where the program valued her at 9-5. #6 Yo Puedo showed value at 23-1 versus theoretical odds of 11-1. On a WP basis alone, the horse had 6-1 value. $6 Yo Puedo paid $17.88 for the place.