The program had a nice result today in the 3rd at Belmont at the Big A with its first selection of #1 Russian Realm winning at 8-5, comped to theoretical odds of 2-1. When a horse has a 100% LP win estimate, there is a very good chance he will win regardless of his SPD projection. The program also had the superfecta horses in its first four selections with #3 Romantic Charmer at 21-1, #10 Sorority Prank at 21-1, and #5 Iron Man Ira at 5-2. The $2.40 superfecta box paid $47.50.
Here are the projection for the Man of War at G2 $400K Belmont at the Big “A”, run at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and up. The program is heavily favoring #9 Nations Pride with a total win probability of 52.58% (about 6-5 equivalent), not far from the M/L of 8-5. With dominating speed projection, the one question is in what form the horse is going to be in after a six month layoff.
There are several graded stakes races today before the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico next weekend. At Belmont at the Big “A’ is the G3 $200K Peter Pan Stakes today, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The program is favoring #4 Lonesome Boy with a total probability of 21.08%, translating in to theoretical odds of 7-2. This compares to 20-1 on the M/L, so there is definitely value in Lonesome Boy today as the first selection. The horse finished fourth in this last race in the Wood Memorial, but won a $75K graded stakes at Parx before that at 1m70 in the mud. Lonesome Boy has a few things going for him, including projecting first in E1 and E2 at 79.3% win estimate and 46.9%. He projects second in final speed at 23.4% but has the highest COMP value at 56.9%, meaning the horse projects well against the other horses on a component level in the aggregate. However, Lonesome Boy’s Coefficient of Variance is elevated at 10.98%. As a general rule, any CV value above 10% would be considered on the high side. It’s worth noting that the horse had odds of 80-1 in the Wood Memorial and still finished fourth. His form continues to improve. The second selection is #1 Protective with a total probability of 20.90%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2 as well. Protective projects first in final speed at 28.9% and has the highest LP value at 64.4%. Protective has recorded the highest final speed figure in the field with 100%, which he did finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial. The third selection is #5 Tuscan Gold with a win probability of 14.54%, equating to theoretical odds of 6-1. The M/L favorite is #3 The Wine Steward with a total win probability of 12.27, giving me theoretical odds of 7-1. The Wine Steward has finished first and second in all of his races, including second place finish in the Lexington at Keeneland in mid April. The horse has the highest win percentage in the field at 26.1%, which would be about 3-1 fair value compared to 5-2 on the M/L. This is a race where one has to respect the Wine Steward’s win percentage, who should figure in an exacta, but there is significant value in Lonesome Boy, who showed he can compete at the 1/8 but will have to be sharp in this race.
Here are the updated projections for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill after the scratch of #9 Encino. The win probability of #17 Fierceness is up to 20.96%, corresponding to theoretical odds of 7-2. The 7-2 theoretical odds matches exactly where Fierceness is this morning with the live odds. It’s worth noting that the Japanese Horse, #11, Forever Young is down to 6-1 with its odds. 6-1 is where the horse would be on a win percentage basis adjusted for stakes, which is all the data there is on him.
In the 7th race at Churchill, the G2 $750K Alysheba Stakes, the program had the winner with its first selection of #3 First Mission at 1-1. The horse had a total win probability of 26.41%, translating to theoretical odds of 5-2. The #8 horse T O Saint Denis gave First Mission a scare early on after going out to an early lead, only for First Mission to accelerate down the stretch to win. The program’s second selection, #5 Il Miracolo at 13-1, came in third after finishing with T O Saint Denis at the wire. In the opinion of this handicapper, it was highway robbery that the stewards gave T O Saint Denis the nod for 2nd when Il Miracolo was the rightful second place finisher.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 