In early action today at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks Day, the PHW 4.3 Turf Program had the exacta with its first two selections in the $400K Sydney Unbridled Stakes in the 6th, run at 5 1/2 mi. on the turf for three-year fillies and mares, with #2 Ova Charged at 3-5 and #9 Secret Money at 9-1. Though getting off to a slow start, Ova Charged turned it on down the stretch to win by half a length over Secret Money, who had highest win percentage in the field at 29.8%. The $1 ex. paid $11.76.
This Saturday is the $5 mil. Kentucky Derby, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features the best three-year olds in the country, including Florida Derby winner, #17 Fierceness, Blue Grass Winner, #2 Sierra Leone, Tampa Bay Derby winner, #15 Domestic Product, Santa Anita Derby winner, #18 Stronghold and Wood Memorial winner, #19 Resilience. The program is favoring #17 Fierceness with a total win probability of 19.75%, translating into theoretical odds of 4-1. Fierceness projects 1st in final speed with a win estimate of 38.7%. However, the horse has elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 13.64%, which is the highest in the field. The second selection is #19 Resilience with a total win probability of 11.29%, equating to theoretical odds of 8-1. Third is #8 Just A Touch with a total win probability of 10.93%. The horse projects first in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 44.3% and 42.4% while having the highest COMP value of 28.0%. Fourth is #15 Domestic Product with a total win probability of 7.46%, translating to theoretical odds of 12-1. In the final analysis, Fierceness appears to have the upper hand in the race due to its highest SPD projection of 38.7%; however, the estimate is less reliable because of the elevated CV value, where Fierceness has high variability in its speed figures, being on one race and off the next. Compared to Fierceness, the second and third selections in Resilience and Just A Touch have much lower win percentages at 3.3% and 5.0%, respectively, even though Resilience finished 1st in the Wood Memorial and Just a Touch second in the Blue Grass Stakes. The horse that is second on the M/L in Sierra Leone has done little wrong in four starts, winning three out of four, including a win in the Blue Grass Stakes; but, statistically, the horse has only a 9.0% SPD win estimate (10-1 equivalent). UAE Derby winner, #11 Forever Young, is the class in the race with a win percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 14.7%. The horse would rank higher, if not for the fact it is a Japanese horse that has raced only overseas and does not have any SPD or other speed data. The horse is undefeated in five starts and recorded a respectable time in the UAE Derby 1:57 and 4 over 1 3/16 mi. Another horse worth mentioning is the Brad Cox trained horse, #4 Catching Freedom, who jumped up in speed in his last race compared to the previous in winning the Louisiana Derby with a final speed figure of 100 and an LP value of 100. The final selections are #17 Fierceness, #19 Resilience, #8 Just A Touch and #15 Domestic Project. There may be changes in the line-up before the race on Saturday, so stay tuned. To see the image in full-resolution, click on the image and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.
Race 4 at Parx today, a $5K claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years old and up, was very illustrative of how the program can be used to identify the best horses in the field. #4 Peach Perfect at 1-1 was the first selection and M/L favorite with a total win probability of 36.86%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-5. The horse projected first in SPD with a 53.3% win estimate while also having the highest COMP value at 39.7%. The #5 horse, Princess Sophie, was a toss based on its recent form after recording a 48 final speed figure in its last race, even though it had the highest win percentage in the field at 36%. The true second best horse was #2 Just Stay Home at 5-1 with a total win probability of 13.50%, who projected third in final speed with a 17.8% win estimate while having the second highest COMP value at 29.9% (2-1 equivalent). Though both horses were underlays, none of the other horses in the field measured up statistically to these two horses. Therefore, an exacta box wager was in order with them. In the race, Just Stay Home surged around the far turn to take the lead down the stretch while Princess Sophie fought hard to challenge for a second place finish. The $1 exacta paid $20.40.
In yesterday’s action, the program had winners with its first selections in the two stakes races at Oaklawn— the G3 $600K Count Fleet Sprint in the 8th and the G1 $1.25 mil. Apple Blossom in the 11th. In the Count Fleet Sprint, the program had the tri-fecta order correct with its first three selections in #4 Skelly, #6 Tejano Twist and #8 Happy is a Choice. At Keeneland, the program had the two exacta horses with its first two selections of #2 Wine Steward and #8 Encino, though the finishing order was reversed with Encino winning.
8th at Oaklawn (G3 Count Fleet Spring)
11th at Oaklawn (G1 Apple Blossom)
10th at Keeneland (G1 Lexington)
The program had a nice result in race 3 at Oaklawn today, a $8K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #4 Luv to Win with a total win probability of 27.47% (5-2 theoretical odds) versus final odds of 7-1. On the class drop, the horse went wire-to-wire in the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 