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The PHW 4.3 Turf version is now available for sale on the “Purchase” page. It has the same functionality as PHW 4.3 Grey, including containing theoretical odds converted from the total win probabilities, but uses only turf data to provide strictly turf calculations. These will give the user an edge in turf races in providing analysis and data from a pure turf perspective instead of combining apples with oranges, so to speak, when the public generally does not differentiate between dirt and turf data in considering past performance data. The logic behind the program is that turf horses tend to do well on turf and dirt horses tend to do well on dirt. One exception was Catholic Boy, who won high graded stakes races on both surfaces. Most horses are not versatile like Catholic Boy.

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Sierra Leone won the $1 mil. Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland yesterday, beating Just A Touch by two lengths. Coming out of the far turn, Sierra Leone was about six wide but found his stride down the stretch, accelerating in the final eighth. Sierra Leone was the third selection with theoretical odds of 9-2 compared to final odds of 8-5. The second selection, Just a Touch at 3-1 (7-2 theoretical odds), was leading the race down the stretch until the final sixteenth when he was overtaken by Sierra Leone. As mentioned in the preview, Just a Touch had a very strong COMP figure of 61.5% (4-5 equivalent), indicating that the horse projected very well against the field on a component level (i.e., E1, E2 and LP) in the aggregate in the simulation. Dornoch at 5-2 (7-2 theoretical odds) finished fourth.

The program had the winner today with its first selection of #3 Stronghold in the $750K G1 Santa Anita Derby. Stronghold had a total win probability of 38.87%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-5. The horse went off a 2-1. In a thrilling finish, Stronghold beat the favorite, Baffert trained #4 Imagination at 1-1, by a nose, who was the third selection with theoretical odds of 5-1.

Today at Keeneland is the G1 $1 mil. Blue Grass Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features #4 Dornoch, winner of the Remsen and Fountain of Youth, #10 Sierra Leone, winner of the Risen Star and runner-up in the Remsen, and #6 Just in Touch, runner-up in the Gotham. The program is favoring #4 Dornoch with a total win probability of 20.9% (7-2 theoretical odds) versus 3-1 on the M/L. Dornoch projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 30.6% (about 2-1 equivalent) and has the second highest win percentage at 18.9%. Second is #6 Just in Touch with a total win probability of 20.33% (7-2 theoretical odds) compared to the M/L of 7/2. Just in Touch has a COMP value of 63.4%, signaling significant strength at the component level in the simulation. Third is #11 Sierra Leone with a total win probability of 17.48% (9-2 theoretical odds) compared to 2-1 on the M/L. Sierra Leone has the most class in the field with a win percentage of 20.9%. Given that the total win probabilities of the top three selections are close, separated by only four percentage points, this race is a tough one to call. Dornoch has won his last three races, included two G2 graded stakes races, while Sierra Leonne is coming of a win in the Risen Star. Just in Touch’s high COMP value of 63.4% may be telling in this race, though he has not gone further than 1 mi.

As an indication of how accurate the theoretical odds of Pro-Handicap Wizard are, here are the final odds in the Ghostzapper Stakes in the 7th race at Gulfstream from Sat., March 30. The program’s first selection, #5 Tumbarumba, had theoretical odds of 2-1 versus final odds of 9-5. The second selection, #3 Il Miracolo, had theoretical odds of 4-1 versus final odds of 4-1. The third selection, #1 Lure Him In, had theoretical odds of 7-1 versus final odds of 7-1. #6 Steel Sunshine had theoretical odds of 7-1, not far from the final odds of 4-1. The above result is confirmation of the accuracy of the program and the soundness of approach mathematically. The Pro-Handicap Wizard’s odds are generated independent of the live odds, involving literally millions of equations.