The program had the winner today with its first selection of #3 Stronghold in the $750K G1 Santa Anita Derby. Stronghold had a total win probability of 38.87%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-5. The horse went off a 2-1. In a thrilling finish, Stronghold beat the favorite, Baffert trained #4 Imagination at 1-1, by a nose, who was the third selection with theoretical odds of 5-1.
Today at Keeneland is the G1 $1 mil. Blue Grass Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features #4 Dornoch, winner of the Remsen and Fountain of Youth, #10 Sierra Leone, winner of the Risen Star and runner-up in the Remsen, and #6 Just in Touch, runner-up in the Gotham. The program is favoring #4 Dornoch with a total win probability of 20.9% (7-2 theoretical odds) versus 3-1 on the M/L. Dornoch projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 30.6% (about 2-1 equivalent) and has the second highest win percentage at 18.9%. Second is #6 Just in Touch with a total win probability of 20.33% (7-2 theoretical odds) compared to the M/L of 7/2. Just in Touch has a COMP value of 63.4%, signaling significant strength at the component level in the simulation. Third is #11 Sierra Leone with a total win probability of 17.48% (9-2 theoretical odds) compared to 2-1 on the M/L. Sierra Leone has the most class in the field with a win percentage of 20.9%. Given that the total win probabilities of the top three selections are close, separated by only four percentage points, this race is a tough one to call. Dornoch has won his last three races, included two G2 graded stakes races, while Sierra Leonne is coming of a win in the Risen Star. Just in Touch’s high COMP value of 63.4% may be telling in this race, though he has not gone further than 1 mi.
As an indication of how accurate the theoretical odds of Pro-Handicap Wizard are, here are the final odds in the Ghostzapper Stakes in the 7th race at Gulfstream from Sat., March 30. The program’s first selection, #5 Tumbarumba, had theoretical odds of 2-1 versus final odds of 9-5. The second selection, #3 Il Miracolo, had theoretical odds of 4-1 versus final odds of 4-1. The third selection, #1 Lure Him In, had theoretical odds of 7-1 versus final odds of 7-1. #6 Steel Sunshine had theoretical odds of 7-1, not far from the final odds of 4-1. The above result is confirmation of the accuracy of the program and the soundness of approach mathematically. The Pro-Handicap Wizard’s odds are generated independent of the live odds, involving literally millions of equations.
At 1-1 odds #10 Fierceness won the $1 mil. G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream today. Fierceness was the program’s first selection. The second place horse was #7 Catalytic at 29-1 and the third #4 Grand Mo the First at 24-1. The program correctly had Grand Mo the First as the third selection. #2 Hades surprisingly did not perform up to expectations as the second selection even though the horse had won all three of his starts at Gulfstream, including the Holy Bull. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.
On Saturday is the $1 mil. Florida Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features a few graded stakes winners, including Holy Bull winner, #2 Hades, who is undefeated in three starts, BC Juvenile winner, #10 Fierceness, and Swale Stakes Winner, #1 Frankie’s Empire. The program has #10 Fierceness as the favorite with a 33.14% win probability, translating to theoretical odds of about 2-1. That compares to 8/5 on the M/L. Fierceness’s career so far has been hit and miss. The horse broke its maiden in its first race while putting up a final speed fig of 101. Next, it had an off-race in the Champaign Stakes only to bounce-back in the BC Juvenile in November in winning it. Consequently, the horse has high risk, as indicated in his Coefficient of Variance of 16.26%—a high value for any favorite. The second selection is #2 Hades with a 13.59% total win probability, equating to theoretical odds of 6-1 versus 7-2 on the M/L. Hades projects second in final speed behind Fierceness at 24.1% win probability (3-1 equivalent) and has a win percentage of 10%. Third is #4 Grand Mo the first with a 11.75% total win probability. That translates to theoretical odds of 8-1 compared to 15-1 on the M/L. Fourth is #1 Frankie’s Empire with a 10.84% win probability, equating to theoretical odds of 8-1 versus 12-1 on the M/L. Frankie’s Empire projects third in final speed at 18.4% win probability (5-1 equivalent). This race comes down to whether Fierceness is going to show up and run his race when he has had an erratic history so far in his career after coming in just 3rd in the Holy Bull as a heavy favorite in that race. Hades, on the other hand, has done no wrong in three starts, winning all three, including the Holy Bull at Gulfstream his last time out in early February. Both Hades and Fierceness have the same amount of days since their last race at 56. Grand Mo the First may be the sleeper in this race after losing to Domestic Product in the Tampa Bay Derby in early March by a head. He showed high late speed with a LP figure of 122 in a race that had no pace. As a late runner, he may be in a good position in this race in view of its 1 1/8 mi. distance. In the final analysis, Hades seems to be a better choice over Fierceness not only because he’s undefeated, but also because he’s won all three races at Gulfstream. Grand Mo the First could be a threat down the stretch with his late kick, even though Hades is no slouch, putting up a 106 LP value in the Holy Bull in beating Domestic Product by two lengths. Given that both Fierceness and Hades are projecting as underlays compared to the M/L, Grand Mo the First deserves a look with theoretical odds of 8-1 compared to the M/L of 15-1. The one horse whose statistics do not justify its M/L price of 3-1 is #9 Conquest Warrior. However, the horse has won its last two starts, with the latter at the $75K level at a time of 1:502 over 1 1/8 mi. Conquest Warrior is the only horse who has run at the 1 1/8 mi.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 