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Today is the $400K G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features graded stakes winners #5 Dornoch, who won the Remsen at Aqueduct in December, #7 Locked, who won the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in Nov., and #7 Frankie’s Empire, who won the Swale Stakes at Gulftream in February. The program is favoring #8 Locked as its first selection with a total win probability of 38.45%, equating to theoretical odds of 8-5 versus its M/L of 5/2. Locked projects second in final speed with a 46% win estimate and is in the class in the race with a win percentage adjusted for stakes of 42.4%. The second selection is #1 Speak Easy with a total win probability of 20.39% (7-2 equivalent) compared to its M/L of 9/2. Speak Easy projects first in final speed, albeit with speed figures for only one race, with a 54% win estimate. Speak Easy broke its maiden in late January in a $89K maiden race and has not raced since. The third selection is the M/L favorite #5 Dornoch with a total win probability of 17.89%. Dornoch is the speed in the race with E1 and E2 win estimates of 75.4% and 42.4% and has the second highest win percentage at 15.3%. In the final analysis, this is a difficult race to handicap because of unseasoned horses and lack of data. While projecting first, Locked is coming off the long layoff after having last run in early Nov. Speak Easy, on the other hand, is a green horse, in having only broken its maiden in late January. Dornoch does not project well in terms of final speed but does project a lot of early speed and should be on the pace. Being the class of the field, Locked should be able to deal with the caliber of horses in the race as a son of Gun Runner, but there are legit challengers in Speak Easy, Dornoch and even #3 Victory Avenue, who recorded a 100 SPD in his first maiden race at Gulfstream at the end of January, in which he came in 2nd. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled i in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down slightly and click on the full-size link in the center.

The program once again had the winner in the 10th race at Oaklawn, the $600K G3 Razorback Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #5 Octane at 5-1 with a total win probability of 19.79% (about 4-1 equivalent). The favorite was #8 Magic Tap at 2-1 with a total win probability of only 7.6%. The horse was the class in the race, though, with a win percentage of 18.1% and came in second. Octane paid $13 for the win. The race illustrates the importance of the simulation results for SPD, with Octane not only having a high SPD estimate but also low risk with a a CV of 3.93%. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for the full-size image in the center.

The program had the winner with its first selection of #1 Run Classic in the $125K Gulfstream Park Sprint at Gulfstream today in race 11. Run Classic at 4-1 had a total win probability of 27.89% (about 5-2 equivalent) and the highest SPD win estimate of 46.8% (about 1-1 equivalent) along a LP win estimate of 90.3%. As projected, the horse showed great late kick to run down the field and win in exciting fashion. Run Classic paid $10.20 for the win. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for the full-size image in the center.

The program had the exacta order correct in another race, this time at Aqueduct in the 5th, a $16K claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years-old and up. The first selection was #7 Whistler’s Style with a total win probability of 18.48% versus odds of 4-1. The second selection was #6 Divine Cross with a total win probability of 16.06% compared to odds of 10-1 (overlay). The $1 exacta paid $64.75. This race is a remarkable result for the program because Whistler’s Style as the first selection had a very low SPD win estimate. It was the horses E1 and E2 win estimates that boosted the horse in the final calculation.

Here is another excellent result today, this time in the 4th race at Oaklawn, a $150K allowance race at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The program had the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #11 Favorite Outlaw at 9-1 and #1 Breslau at 10-1. The $1 exacta paid $32.80. This result came in a twelve-horse field.