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Brad Cox trained, #5 Catching Freedom at 7-2 won the $1 mil. Louisiana Derby yesterday, going from first to last in an upset. Previously, Catching Freedom had finished 3rd in the Risen Star behind #12 Track Phantom and won the Smarty Jones. Benefiting from a solid opening pace of 23.49, the horse swung wide around the far turn and catapulted to the lead down the stretch. During Catching Freedom’s move, #7 Honor Marie was on his inside and finished second. Statistically, Catching Freedom did not have a lot behind him, with a final speed estimate of 9.1% (10-1 equivalent) but a 14.0% win percentage (6-1 equivalent). The late strength by Honor Marie was projected in his field-high LP estimate of 31.8% in spite of the horse regressing in his last race. It seemed Honor Marie was in a better spot in this race in his second start off the lay-off. Though disappointing, Track’s Phantom’s performance at this distance of 1 3/16 mi. was foreseeable, as the horse did not project at all with late speed (only 0.7% for LP), rather all of the horse’s speed was upfront. The horse was bet down to 2-1 for having had two wins and one place finish in three graded stakes races. Honor Marie was a good choice for a bounce-back after winning the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill as a two-year old, but Catching Freedom was a bit of a surprise in showing late speed to such a degree he had not shown before. The program’s first selection, Common Defense, could not repeat his miracle run in the Rebel after his second place finish behind Timberlake at 27-1 odds.

Today at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana is another Kentucky Derby prep race in the $1 mil. Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features Lecomte Winner and Risen Star Stakes runner-up, #12 Track Phantom, Rebel Stakes runner-up, #8 Common Defense, and Smarty Jones Winner, #5 Catching Freedom. The program is favoring #6 Common Defense with a total win probability of 24.11% (6-1 on the M/L), translating to theoretical odds of 3-1. #6 Common Defense projects first in final speed with a 37.5% win estimate along with having the highest win percentage at 20.2%. The second selection is Track Phantom at 3-1 on the M/L with a 18.43% total win probability (4-1 theoretical odds), who projects second in final speed with a 28.3% win estimate. Third is #4 Agate Road with a win probability of 11.10%, equating to theoretical odds of 8-1, which is exactly where the horse is on the M/L. The race appears to be between Common Defense and Track Phantom, but #7 Honor Marie should not be ignored with the highest LP win estimate of 31.8%, who might be best suited for the 1 3/16 mi. distance. Catching Freedom is also worth considering for finishing right behind Track Phantom in the Risen Star in February. The selections are #6 Common Defense, #12 Track Phantom, #4 Agate Road and #7 Honor Marie. To see the image in full resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i’ in the bottom right-hand corner. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.

The Grey program had a nice result in the 5th race at Gulfstream, a $35K maiden race at 1 mi. off the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. The first selection was #8 Mobay Princess with a total win probability of 27.77% (5-2 equivalent theoretical odds) versus odds of 11-1. The second selection was #4 Sizzle with a 22% total win probability (7-2 equivalent) versus odds of 7-2. In the race, Mobay Princess led much of the way before she was overtaken down the stretch by Sizzle, thanks to a strong late kick (100% LP value). The $1 exacta paid $41.60. Even though there was not a lot of data to go off, Mobay Princess was still greatly mispriced, going off at 11-1 with a 5-2 theoretical value. The horse projected 1st in final speed with a 37.2% winning estimate in the simulation (8-5 equivalent) and was tied for having the second high win percentage at 19.5% (4-1 equivalent). The race shows the value of having an accurate handicapping program like Pro-Handicap Wizard that identified Mobay Princess as a strong horse in the field despite having high odds of 11-1.

The program had a good result today in the 2nd race at Tampa, a $12.5K claiming race at 6.5F on the dirt for three-year-olds. The programs first two selections were #4 Smart Joker at 3-1 with a total winning probability of 20.52% (7-2 equivalent odds) at and #6 Final Verdict at 5-1 with a 19.45% winning probability (4-1 equivalent odds). The order of finish was reversed, with Final Verdict winning by a head over Smart Joker. The $1 exacta paid $37.20.

Among the non-maiden races on dirt yesterday at Gulfstream, the program had winners with its first selection in 3 out of the 5 races (3rd, 9th and 10th), including in the one graded stakes race in the $100K Hutchinson Stakes in the 3rd. The program also had the place horse with its second selection in 6th with #2 Moonrise Drive at 34-1 compared to 5-1 theoretical odds.

Race 3

Race 10

Race 11

Race 6