Here is another excellent result today, this time in the 4th race at Oaklawn, a $150K allowance race at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The program had the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #11 Favorite Outlaw at 9-1 and #1 Breslau at 10-1. The $1 exacta paid $32.80. This result came in a twelve-horse field.
The program had a nice result today in the 5th race at Gulfstream, a $10K claiming race run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares four-year-old and up. The first selection was #1 Worldly Beauty with a total win probability of 30.19% (comparable to about 2-1) versus odds of 5-1. Worldly Beauty held off a late challenge by #9 Nothing But Pumps at 4-1, who received a FIT2 checkmark for its superior LP win estimate of 58.1%. This is precisely the kind of race setup a handicapper should be looking for with a first selection as an overlay.
Here are the projections for tomorrow’s G2 $1.25m Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three year olds. The program is favoring #7 Timberlake with a 46.03% total win probability, equating close to 1-1 odds. Note that the horse’s morning line is 1.2 or 6/5, showing how accurate Pro-Handicap Wizard’s theoretical odds are as an independent program. Timberlake appears to be a classic horse, projecting 1st in SPD in the simulation at 86.5%, 1st in E2 at 58.7% and 1st in LP at 53.1%. The horse is also the class in the race with a win percentage adjusted for stakes of 20.7% (4-1 equivalent). With its dominance, Timberlake looks set for victory and should go off at a short price. To see the image in high resolution, click on it and then click on the encircled “i” in the bottom left hand corner. Then scroll down slightly and click on the link for full-size view in the center.
Tomorrow at the Fair Grounds is the $400K G2 Risen Star Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features Kentucky Jockey Club winner, #3 Honor Marie, Remsen runner-up, #4 Sierra Leonne, Smarty Jones winner, #8 Catching Freedom, and Lecomte winner, #12 Track Phantom. The program is favoring #3 Honor Marie as its first selection with a total win probability of 18.82%, making it an underlay at 3-1 on the M/L. Honor Marie is the class in the race with a win percentage of 19.65% (4-1 equivalent) and has the third highest SPD win estimate of 23%. The second selection is #4 Sierra Leone with a total win probability of 17.44%. Sierra Leonne has the highest SPD win estimate at 36.3% (2-1 equivalent), though its risk is elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.7%. The third selection is #6 Real Men Violin. The horse has a total win probability of 15.8% compared to its M/L of 8-1. Real Men Violin has the second highest SPD win estimate at 25.7% but has high risk with a CV value of 11.9%. In the final analysis, these horses are all green, like those we saw last week in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa. Honor Marie is sitting in the driver’s seat after winning the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill back in late November but Sierra Leone is a serious challender after coming from well off the pace to nearly get the upset against Dornoch in the Remsen in early December. Keep in mind that the total win probabilities of the top two selections are still low at 18.8% and 17.4%, which means that the race is fairly wide open along with there being limited past performance data on these horses.
The Turf program had a good result today in the 9th race at Gulfstream, a $25k allowance race at 1 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years old and up. The first selection was #3 New Rome, who had a total win probability of 35.83% (9-5) equivalent versus odds of 5-1. The horse had the highest SPD estimate of 53.6% and the second highest Win Percentage (WP) of 18.6.%. New Rome led most of the way and won by one and a half lengths. The horse paid $13.60 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 