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That was a puzzling result today in the Sam F. Davis with #5 No More Time getting the win at 3-1?? It’s quite remarkable that a horse who had only a maiden win until this point was able to best this field of eleven, including three horses that had won graded stakes races. No More Time had hardly anything statistically to show before for the win with a winning percentage adjusted for stakes of just 4.7% (19-1 equivalent). On the other hand, #6 Agate Road finishing second was more believable because of his class (16.4% winning percentage was the highest in the field) even though most of the horse’s wins had come on the turf previously and not on dirt. The race illustrates that sometimes even with the best modelling random walk occasionally does happen, even in the big races with horses you would think would be reliable with their performance based on past performance. The riskiness of the race is evident in the elevated average CV ratio of the field, which was 9.57%. Eight of the twelve horses had CV values of 9% or higher. In high dollar graded stakes races with mature horses, that average risk indicator is lower, meaning the horses are more predictable quantitatively. Two variables that the handicapper always needs to be mindful when handicapping is data integrity (the amount of data present) and risk or the CV values of the horses.

Tomorrow is another Kentucky Derby prep race in the G3 $250K Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay, run at 1 1/16 mi on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features three stakes winners in #3 Patriot Spirit at 6-1, who won the $100K Inaugural at Tampa in early December, 6 Agate Road at 7-2, who won the G2 Pilgrim at Belmont at the Big A in early October, and #7 Copper Tax at , who won $100K races at Laurel in December and Delaware Park in October. The program is favoring #3 Patriot Spirit with a total win probability of 22.16% (about 7-2 fair value), thanks to his final speed win estimate of 38.9% (9-5 equivalent)—the highest in the field. The horse has the highest E1 and E2 win estimates at 31.6% and 44.9% but an LP value of just 0.3%. The second selection is #7 Copper Tax at 5-1 with a total win probability of 14.55%. Copper Tax has the highest COMP value at 69.5%, signalling that he has strength in his component speed figures (e1, e2 and lp) versus the field in the aggregate in the simulation. Third is #4 Crazy Mason with a total win probability of 13.05%, who has the highest LP win estimate in the field at 51.2%. In the final analysis, this is a wide open race that should favor the speed horses in #3 Patriot Spirit and #7 Copper Tax. #6 Agate Road is the class in the race with a winning percentage of 16.4%, who is coming off a 2nd place finish in the $125K Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream on the turf in early January. The horse’s 0% SPD win estimate is deceiving, as his last race had a slow early pace while the horse finished strongly for second with a 96 LP value. In terms of long shots, #2 Tireless and #12 Elysian Meadows are worth a look because of their pedigree. Tireless’s sire is Not this Time and Elysian Meadows‘ is City of Light, winner of the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup in his final two starts. Elysian Meadows is undefeated in two starts.

With this preview, you will notice that a significant addition has been made to the chart for Total Win Probability in that the odds translated from the win probabilities are now shown next to the names of the horses. These odds can be compared by the users to the live odds to determine whether the horses or under- or overlays. The new version will be available soon. To see the image in full resolution, click on the image and then on the encircled i on the bottom right. Then scroll down slightly and click on the full resolution link in the center.

As mentioned in the preview earlier, #10 Uncle Heavy at 9-1 was able to get the upset in the Withers Stakes. Ranked as the third selection by the program, Uncle Heavy showed his superior speed to take down #4 El Grande O at the wire. El Grande O was the second selection. Uncle Heavy paid $20.60 for the win. The $2 exacta with the #10 and the #4 paid $92.50.

The main turf race at Gulfstream on Holy Bull Day is the G3 $175K Kitten’s Joy, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The first selection is the M/L favorite #9 Noted with a total win probability of 28.07%. That compares to 8/5 on the M/L, making the horse a bit overvalued. However, Noted has a solid final speed projection at 43.0% (7-5 equivalent) in the simulation and relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.98%.

Tomorrow at the G3 $250k Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, run at 1 1/8 mile on the dirt for three-year olds. The Handicap Wizard Grey Program is projecting #5 Seminole Chief as its first selection with a total win probability of 26.65% (3-1 fair value), who is at 10-1 on the M/L. It is surprising that Seminole Chief would have such a high M/L considering it is the class in the field with a winning percentage of 24.2% (3-1 fair value). However, Seminole Chief has a somewhat high Coefficient of Variance on its final speed figures of 10.24%. Interestingly, the horse has the high COMP figure of 48.4% indicating that the horse has (2-1) strength on a component level in the aggregate according to the simulation. Second is #4 El Grande O with a total win probability of 18.3% versus 5/2 on the M/L, making the horse an underlay. The horse has the highest final speed estimate according to the simulation at 31.7% (2-1 equivalent) but is third in win percentage at 17.3%. The third selection is #8 Uncle Heavy with a 17.8% total win probability (4-1 equivalent) versus 10-1 on the M/L. Uncle Heavy has the second highest final speed estimate at 27.3% (3-1 fair value) along with a win percentage of 18.2% (4-1 equivalent). Uncle Heavy is coming off a win after getting the upset in a $200K graded stakes race at Parx in December in the mud. Of the three top selections, Uncle Heavy is showing the most value as a 4-1 projected horse. Even the folks at DRF in their preview of the Withers yesterday said Uncle Heavy has the talent to win the Withers. What’s mystifying in this race is the M/L favorite of #3 Lightline at 8/5 on the M/L when the horse does not have the data in the simulation or the win percentage to support that low M/L. The horse has two second place finishes in $80K and $100K claiming races at Oaklawn and Keeneland in its last two races. In the final analysis, both Seminole Chief and Uncle Charlie are showing value while the M/L favorite in Lightline and #4 El Grande O are projecting as overlays.