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Here are the projections for the G3 $250K Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream tomorrow, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The first selection is #7 Fierceness, the winner of the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita as a two-year-old. The horse dominates in all metrics and has a total win probability of 61.01% percent, close to its M/L price of 3/5. On a final speed basis, the horse projects at a 62.3% win estimate, translating again very close to 3/5 on the M/L. That M/L doesn’t come out of thin air but captures the statistical projections of this race well for the favorite.

Here are the projections for the Pegasus World Cup Invitational today at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The first selection is #7 National Treasure with a 22.00% total winning probability, who is the favorite on the M/L at 8/5. He is an underlay at the price (fair value is more towards 3-1). Second is #12 Skippylongstocking with a 17.7% win probability. At 8-1 on the M/L the horse offers value compared to its fair value of around 5-1. Third is #4 Hoist the Gold with a 15.5% total win probability compared to its M/L of 12-1. At 12-1 the horse would be at a significant discount in view of its SPD estimate of 30% and relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of only 6.72%. Reinforcing their appeal, these three horses also have the highest COMP values at 31%, 24.7% and 21.21% respectively.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection of #3 Otello in the $150K Mucho Macho Man Stakes today at Gulfstream. The Mucho Macho Man is an early Kentucky Derby prep race. With a total win probability of 25.65%, the horse was an underlay at 8-5 (fair value closer to 3-1).

Happy New Year to all! Remember to create a new folder for 2024 and track folders inside it. Otherwise, you may encounter problems trying to copy and paste 2024 race files into 2023 track folders.

The Handicapwizard had some excellent results yesterday at both Tampa and Gulfstream. In the 9th at Tampa, a $16K handicap at 1 mi. on the turf, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection in #7 Cannon’s Roar at 17-1. Its total win probability was 16.28%, translating to a fair value of 6-1. The horse had a high COMP at 54.8%, suggesting strength at the component level in the aggregate, as well as the highest win percentage in the field at 13.6%. On the basis of its win percentage alone, Cannon’s Roar was a 7-1 horse but went off at 17-1. This is exactly the kind of setup a handicapper should be looking for in a race in having the first selection be an overlay.

At Gulfstream the Grey Program had the winner in the $125K Rampart Stakes in the 5th with #3 Maryquitecontrary at 2-1.

In the G3 Harland’s Holiday in the 10th, the program had the exacta order reversed with its top two selections of #3 Grand Aspen at 7-2 and #6 O’Connor at 10-1. Just before the wire O’Connor surged ahead of Grand Aspen , who had been leading down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $93.80.