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Today is the G1 $1 mil. Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features #11 Reincarnate, winner of Los Alamitos Derby in July and the Sham Stakes back in Jan. , as well as #3 Saudi Crown, who placed second in the Jim Dandy Stakes and in the Dwyer Stakes in July. The program is favoring Saudi Crown with a total win probability of 42.64%, making him an overlay compared to the M/L of 7-2. Saudi Crown projects first in final speed with a 71.6% win estimate and has the highest win percentage in the field at 18.7%. Dreamlike is the second selection with a total win probability of 10.24% compared to the M/L of 10-1. Third is #11 Reincarnate, who is the M/L favorite at 3-1 in spite of having a total win probability of just 8.81%. Based on the data, it is hard to justify Reincarnate’s favored status other than he is trained by Bob Baffert and won his last start at Los Alamitos, even though the Derby was only a G3 race.

The Grey program had a good result yesterday in the 8th race at Gulfstream, a $20K optional claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The first selection was #2 Lord Eddard Stark with a total win probability of 20.05% versus final odds of 5-2. At that price that horse was an underlay according to the ROI analysis. Even though the horse won, taking underlays or negative ROI horses is a losing strategy over time. It’s better then to wait for more favorable odds.

The program had the winner in the G1 Pacific Classic today at Del Mar with its first selection in #9 Arabian Knight, who bested the Haskell Winner, #1 Geaux Rocket Ride, in a rematch. Confirming that he was the class in the race with a 23.5% win percentage, Arabian Knight went wire to wire in the win. The program also had the winner with its first selection in the 8th in the Torrey Pines with #10 Ceiling Crusher at 2-1, who paid $6.80. In the Green Flash Handicap in the 9th on turf, the Turf program had the winner with its second selection in #8 Motorious at 5-2. Finally, the Turf program had the winner in the G2 Del Mar Handicap in the 11th with #10 Gold Phoenix, who was the class in the race with a 34.5% win percentage (about 2-1 fair value). The race had an eleven-horse field.

Race 10 – G1 Pacific Classic

Race 8 – G3 Torrey Pines

Race 9 – G3 Green Flash Handicap

Race 11 – G2 Del Mar Handicap

There was an excellent showing by a young horse in the 3rd at Gulfstream, a $40K maiden claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt. #3 Sunshine Frolic won by three lengths in his second start with a final time of 1:43.60. Sired by California Chrome, the horse ran 4f in an impressive 0:45 in a workout on Aug. 27. Sunshine Frolic is a horse to keep an eye on in the future.

Today at Del Mar is the $1 mil. G1 Pacific Classic, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The race features #1 Geaux Rocket Ride, winner of the Haskel in July, #9 Arabian Knight, who came in 3rd in the Haskell after winning the Southwest Stakes in Jan., and #3 Stilleto Boy, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap in March. The program is favoring Arabian Knight with a total win probability of 18.68% versus 3-1 on the M/L. Arabian Knight has a tough task in this race after being beaten by Geaux Rocket Ride already, but the former comes in with the highest win percentage overall at 23.5% (about 3-1 fair value). The second selection is Stilleto Boy, who projects first in final speed at 31.2%, although his risk is elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.37%. Having a total win probability of 16.55%, the horse has value at 8-1 on the M/L. Third is Slow Down Andy with a total win probability of 15.22%. Interestingly, Slow Down Andy’s COMP is 31.3%, which would make his fair value about 5-2 on that basis. Fourth is #8 Senor Buscador, who projects 2nd in final speed at 23.5% (4-1 fair value versus M/L of 8-1) but has a win percentage of just 4.5%. Geaux Rocket Ride is the fifth selection with a 12.52% total win probability, who won his last two starts and has won three out of four starts total. The horse’s final speed estimate of only 2.2% undercuts his chances, though on a win percentage basis (19.8%) his fair value is 4-1. It’s worth nothing that Stilleto Boy is back on his home turf in California after having been in the Midwest for his last two races, where he placed 6th in the Stephen Foster and 3rd in the Oaklawn Handicap (lost by a nose). This should be a bettor’s race considering there is no clear favorite.