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The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection of #3 Otello in the $150K Mucho Macho Man Stakes today at Gulfstream. The Mucho Macho Man is an early Kentucky Derby prep race. With a total win probability of 25.65%, the horse was an underlay at 8-5 (fair value closer to 3-1).

Happy New Year to all! Remember to create a new folder for 2024 and track folders inside it. Otherwise, you may encounter problems trying to copy and paste 2024 race files into 2023 track folders.

The Handicapwizard had some excellent results yesterday at both Tampa and Gulfstream. In the 9th at Tampa, a $16K handicap at 1 mi. on the turf, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection in #7 Cannon’s Roar at 17-1. Its total win probability was 16.28%, translating to a fair value of 6-1. The horse had a high COMP at 54.8%, suggesting strength at the component level in the aggregate, as well as the highest win percentage in the field at 13.6%. On the basis of its win percentage alone, Cannon’s Roar was a 7-1 horse but went off at 17-1. This is exactly the kind of setup a handicapper should be looking for in a race in having the first selection be an overlay.

At Gulfstream the Grey Program had the winner in the $125K Rampart Stakes in the 5th with #3 Maryquitecontrary at 2-1.

In the G3 Harland’s Holiday in the 10th, the program had the exacta order reversed with its top two selections of #3 Grand Aspen at 7-2 and #6 O’Connor at 10-1. Just before the wire O’Connor surged ahead of Grand Aspen , who had been leading down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $93.80.

The Grey program had a good result in the 3rd at Tampa Bay today, a $5K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares, having the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #6 Musical Cat at 3-1 and #3 Shall Return at 5-2. The $2 exacta paid #36.80.

The program also had the winner in the 6th with #1 Gotts Got It at 2-1.

The Handicapwizard had an excellent result today in the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, having the exacta order correct with its top two selections, #11 Hoist the Gold at 8-1 and #3 Senor Buscador at 7-2. The implied probability of getting the exacta order correct was only 3%.