Category: Uncategorized

Tomorrow is the second of the Triple Crown Races, the $1.5 mil. Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. It’s run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. After his win in the Kentucky Derby, #3 Mage is the M/L favorite at 8/5 odds. That it right about where the Handicap Wizard is valuing him in terms of his total win probability of 38.05%. However, he’s better than 8/5 according to his final speed projection of 47.7% and his stakes weighted Win Percentage at 53.4%, as in 1-1 odds. Next is #8 First Mission, who is 5/2 on the M/L. The Handicap Wizard has him as the third selection and at around 6-1 fair value with a total win probability of 15.53%. First Mission is the only other horse than Mage to have recorded at 103 final speed figure, which he did in his last race at Keeneland in winning the Lexington Stakes on Apr. 15. Third in the M/L is #1 National Treasure at 4-1. This is a Bob Baffert trained horse after Baffert was banned from running any horses in the Kentucky Derby. The Handicap Wizard has National Treasure as its second selection with a total win probability of 17.92% or about 5-1 fair value. National Treasure finished fourth recently in the Santa Anita Derby, ending behind Practical Move, Mandarin Hero and Skinner. In other words, National Treasure is not even the best horse to come out of Santa Anita. National Treasure has high projections in E1 and E2 of 83.5% and 28.9%, which makes him the speed in the race. What is unusual about National Treasure’s numbers is his high COMP value of 61.4%, meaning that his individual speed components in E1, E2 and LP compare very well in the aggregate to the other horses in the simulation. COMP is typically correlated with SPD, but Mage has the superior SPD projection in this field. The fourth selection according to the program is #5 Red Route One with a total win probability of 13.32% or about 8-1 fair value. He is 10-1 on the M/L. Red Route One projects in the top three horses in final speed at 18.5%-win probability. By that metric his fair value drops down as low as 5-1, and his late pace projects strongest at 38.1% win probability. Red Route One won his last race, a $200K stakes race at Oaklawn at 1 1/16 mi. In the final analysis, Mage looks like he can win this second leg of the Triple Crown, with him being the class in the race, as evidenced by his 53.4% Win Percentage in this field. His odds likely will move to even, as the public overbets the favorite. However, neither First Mission or even Red Route One should be discounted. First Mission is Brad Cox trained horse, who showed a good late kick in the Lexington. Red Route One is another closer himself. The final selections are #3 Mage, #1 National Treasure, #8 First Mission and #5 Red Route One.         

The Handicap Wizard had a nice result today in the 7th race at Pimlico, an $8K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year olds. The program had #3 Savoy as its first selection with a total winning probability of 26.08%, translating to a fair value of about 3-1. The horse settled at 8-1. The main reason the program favored the horse is because of its winning percentage of 37%, which put it at about 2-1 fair value. The horse was fairly risky with a Coefficient of Variance at 18.40%, which the handicapper should take into account. In the race, Savoy took the lead out of the far turn and held off a late charging #7 Rookie Salsa at the wire. Savoy paid $19.80 for the win. Even with a risky horse, the result attests to the soundness of the algorithm.

At 15-1, #8 Mage pulled off the upset yesterday in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Second was #3 Two Phil’s at 9-1, who had led the race coming into the stretch but was overtaken by Mage with about a sixteenth left to go. #14 Angel of Empire (4-1) stormed up late for third. Looking at the program’s projections after the scratches, the race went largely the way the Handicap Wizard predicted with #3 Two Phil’s and #14 Angel of Empire as the first and second selections coming in second and third in the race. There’s was not much evidence by way of statistics to suggest that Mage had a legitimate shot in the race except for the COMP value of 10.1%, meaning that Mage’s fair value was a best 9-1. His total win probability of 4.44% put him at 19-1 fair value. However, Mage came in second in the Florida Derby, losing to Forte only by a length. After that important prep race, it was conceivable that Mage could hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. What was notable about the way Mage ran in the Florida Derby was that he knew when to make his move around the far turn, whose acceleration catapulted him into the lead before Forte finally caught him before the wire. This handicapper ended up taking Mage, along with Two Phil’s and Angel of Empire. Those three horses (8-3-14) paid $491.18 in the tri-fecta. Mage paid $32.42 for the win and Two Phil’s $10.44 for the place. To see the image in full-size, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the “full-size” link in the center.

Today at Churchill Downs in the $3 mil. G1 Kentucky Derby, run at 1 ¼ mi. for three-year olds on the dirt. In the field are the best horses from this year’s three-year old crop, including Florda Derby winner #15 Forte at 3-1 on the M/L. Another is #5 Tapit Trice, who has the second lowest odds on the M/L at 5-1 as the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April. There is also #14 Angel of Empire at 8-1 on the M/L, who was the winner of the Arkansas Derby and Risen Star Stakes. The program interestingly is favoring #2 Two Phils with a 13.69% total win probability, which would put his fair value in the 7-1 range. He is at 12-1 on the M/L. The program projects him as third best in terms of final speed after recording the best final speed figure in the field at 107 his last time out in the Jeff Ruby Stakes in March, which he won. The Handicap Wizard sees Two Phil’s as the main speed in the race, with the horse projecting at 17% win probability for E1 and 46% win probability for E2. What is notable about Two Phil’s is his 30.4% COMP value, which shows that his component speed figures (i.e. E1, E2 and LP) project strongly in the aggregate. According to that COMP, Two Phil’s fair value is around 2-1, which would give him a lot of value in this race at 12-1 on the M/L/ On the other hand, Two Phil’s has not been in the kind of major graded stakes races compared to some of the other horses, having a Win Percentage of just 3.8%. On the basis of Two Phil’s money wins, his odds should be 20-1 or more. #14 Angel of Empire is the second selection with a total win probability of 12.78%, which translates to about 8-1. Angel of Empire projects highest in final speed at 21.9% (4-1 equivalent) but is risky with a 14.89% CV value. The range of Angel of Empires speed figures is between 69 and 101, but he is currently in peak form going off his last race. Angel of Empire’s Win Percentage is double that of Two Phil’s at 7.6%, meaning the horse has won to twice the degree as Two Phil’s has in terms of competition. Third is #10 Practical Move at 11.68%, translating to 9-1 in odds versus his 10-1 price on the M/L. The horse projects well in SPD at 20.66% win estimate (4-1 equivalent) and 27.7% in LP (3-1 equivalent). Compared to his speed projections, he final and late speed is being discounted while he has a fairly strong COMP at 18% (5-1). The fourth selection is #1 Forte with a 9.69% total win probability. Forte is the class in the field with a win percentage of 15.5%, equating to 6-1 odds versus his 3-1 price on the M/L. The odds makers are putting on premium on Forte’s class in his having won the Florida prep races but are discounting Two Phil’s and Practical Move’s speed in terms of projections. Practical Move has the angle that he won the Santa Anita Derby a month ago on April 8 with a 107 LP figure, the second highest in the field after Angel of Empire with 108. The final selections are #3 Two Phil’s, #14 Angel Of Empire, #10 Practical Move and #15 Forte.  My personal choices are Angel of Empire, Two Phil’s, Practical Move and Skinner for the top four.

Projections After Scratches: 3:30 p.m. CST on 5/6

The Handicap Wizard had an excellent result in the Florida Derby today at Gulfstream with its three top selections being the order of the tri-fecta (11/4/9). With #11 Forte going off at 1/5, the $0.50 trifecta paid $6.95. Based on the implied win probability in the payout, the program had about a 7% chance of getting this tri-fecta result, demonstrating its accuracy and strength of modeling.