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Here are the projections for tomorrow’s $1 mil. Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream. The clear favorite is #11 Forte at 4/5 on the M/L, who is valued just above that price according the program with a total win probability of 47.08% (close to 1-1). According to his SPD projection of 56.8% (win probability) and adjusted Win Percentage (WP) of 57.3%, he is valued at 4/5. The only real contender according to the data is #4 Mage, who projects favorably in SPD at 27.9% (3-1 strength) and COMP at 30.9% (2-1). What detracts from Mage is his WP of just 4.3%, which is low (20-1 equivalent). Mage is lightly raced and does not have the race history that Forte has (2 versus 6 races). The selections are #11 Forte, #4 Mage and #9 Cyclone Mischief. To see the imagine in full-size, click on it and then on the encircled i on the bottom right. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.

As highlighted in the preview, #6 Kingsbarn went wire to wire to victory today in the Louisiana Derby. The program detected his speed potential in the both SPD and COMP metrics, with COMP being significant at 32.6%, indicating 2-1 strength in the horse. He went off a 9-2. Kingsbarn paid $11.

Here are the projections for tomorrow’s $1 mil. Louisiana Derby at the Fairground. #2 Instant Coffee is the favorite according to the M/L and the model’s projections but is pricey at 2-1 in view of his total win probability of only 17.66%. There appears to be value with #4 Sun Thunder at 5-1 on the M/L because of his SPD projection of 23.8%, which would make his fair value closer to 3-1 according to that metric. Another horse worth considering is #6 Kingsbarns at 6-1 because of his SPD projection of 15.5% (about fair value) and COMP value of 32.6%, (2-1 fair value) signalling strength in his components in the aggregate according to the simulation. Otherwise, the selections look expensive at their M/L prices.

Today at Oaklawn is the $1 mil. Rebel Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features #6 Reincarnate, winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita in Jan., #5 Giant Mischief, runner-up in the Springboard Mile at Remington, and #1 Verifying, runner-up in the Champaign stakes at Belmont at Aqueduct in Nov. The program has #6 Reincarnate as it first selection with a total win probability of 15.74%. The horse projects first in SPD with a 25.2% win probability while also having the high COMP projection at 33.8%. At 7/2 on the M/L the horse is slightly undervalued at that price in terms of total win probability, but fairly valued against its SPD projection. Second is #5 Giant Mischief with a 14.58% total win probability, who projects second in SPD with a 22.8% win estimate. At 5/2 on the M/L Giant Mischief is an underlay and also has higher than average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 16.96% in three starts. Third is #11 Frosted Departure with a 12.82% total win probability versus a 20-1 M/L price, making him a substantial overlay, when his fair value is around 8-1. Fourth is Red Route One with a total win probability of 11.57% versus a M/L price of 10-1. Breaking down the numbers, there is value in Reincarnate at 7/2 from his final speed projection, but Giant Mischief gets a FIT2 checkmark for ranking in the top two for both its final speed projection and win percentage. Red Route One is the class in the race, albeit by a narrow margin, with a win percentage of 15.1%. He also projects best in terms of late speed or LP at 46.4% win probability. The final selections are #6 Reincarnate, #5 Giant Mischief, #11 Frosted Departure and #3 Red Route One.