Category: Uncategorized

The program had the winner in the G1 Pacific Classic today at Del Mar with its first selection in #9 Arabian Knight, who bested the Haskell Winner, #1 Geaux Rocket Ride, in a rematch. Confirming that he was the class in the race with a 23.5% win percentage, Arabian Knight went wire to wire in the win. The program also had the winner with its first selection in the 8th in the Torrey Pines with #10 Ceiling Crusher at 2-1, who paid $6.80. In the Green Flash Handicap in the 9th on turf, the Turf program had the winner with its second selection in #8 Motorious at 5-2. Finally, the Turf program had the winner in the G2 Del Mar Handicap in the 11th with #10 Gold Phoenix, who was the class in the race with a 34.5% win percentage (about 2-1 fair value). The race had an eleven-horse field.

Race 10 – G1 Pacific Classic

Race 8 – G3 Torrey Pines

Race 9 – G3 Green Flash Handicap

Race 11 – G2 Del Mar Handicap

There was an excellent showing by a young horse in the 3rd at Gulfstream, a $40K maiden claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt. #3 Sunshine Frolic won by three lengths in his second start with a final time of 1:43.60. Sired by California Chrome, the horse ran 4f in an impressive 0:45 in a workout on Aug. 27. Sunshine Frolic is a horse to keep an eye on in the future.

Today at Del Mar is the $1 mil. G1 Pacific Classic, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The race features #1 Geaux Rocket Ride, winner of the Haskel in July, #9 Arabian Knight, who came in 3rd in the Haskell after winning the Southwest Stakes in Jan., and #3 Stilleto Boy, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap in March. The program is favoring Arabian Knight with a total win probability of 18.68% versus 3-1 on the M/L. Arabian Knight has a tough task in this race after being beaten by Geaux Rocket Ride already, but the former comes in with the highest win percentage overall at 23.5% (about 3-1 fair value). The second selection is Stilleto Boy, who projects first in final speed at 31.2%, although his risk is elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.37%. Having a total win probability of 16.55%, the horse has value at 8-1 on the M/L. Third is Slow Down Andy with a total win probability of 15.22%. Interestingly, Slow Down Andy’s COMP is 31.3%, which would make his fair value about 5-2 on that basis. Fourth is #8 Senor Buscador, who projects 2nd in final speed at 23.5% (4-1 fair value versus M/L of 8-1) but has a win percentage of just 4.5%. Geaux Rocket Ride is the fifth selection with a 12.52% total win probability, who won his last two starts and has won three out of four starts total. The horse’s final speed estimate of only 2.2% undercuts his chances, though on a win percentage basis (19.8%) his fair value is 4-1. It’s worth nothing that Stilleto Boy is back on his home turf in California after having been in the Midwest for his last two races, where he placed 6th in the Stephen Foster and 3rd in the Oaklawn Handicap (lost by a nose). This should be a bettor’s race considering there is no clear favorite.

While Forte failed as the favorite in the Travers, the 4.2 Grey program had the winner, Archangelo, and place finisher, Disarm, as its second and third selections. The $1 exacta paid $36.25. Besides this result, the program had the correct order of the tri-fecta with its top three selections in the G1 Balerina in the 10th with #6 Echo Zulu, #7 Goodnight Olive and #2 Matareya.

On Saturday is the $1.25 G1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features #1 Forte, winner of the Jim Dandy Stakes in his last start, #2 Arcangelo, winner of the Belmont Stakes, and #4 Mage, winner of the Kentucky Derby. The model is favoring #1 Forte, who projects best in terms of final speed with a 41.0% win estimate and has the 2^nd highest in win percentage at 23.08%. Forte’s total win probability is 30.86%, which would make him an underlay at 7-5 on the M/L. The second selection is #2 Arcangelo, who is just below Forte in final speed at 39.2% and has a win percentage of 13.8%. His total win probability of 21.05% makes Arcangelo, too, an underlay at 5/2. The third selection is #6 Disarm with a total win probability of 16.40%, which would make his fair value 6-1 compared to 8-1 on the money line. Fourth is #4 Mage with a 14.94% total win probability. Mage has the highest win percentage in the field at 29.3% because of his Kentucky Derby win but projects poorly against the field with final speed of just 0.4%. It may be that the horse has already peaked after coming in second and third in his last two races. The final selections are #1 Forte, #2 Arcangelo, #6 Disarm and # 4 Mage.