The Handicap Wizard had a good result today in the 10th race at the Fairground, the $250K Mineshaft stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The program had the correct order of finish in the tri-fecta with its 2nd, 3rd and 4th selections in #7 Pioneer of Medina, #2 Run Classic and #8 Mr. Wireless. A $12 trifecta box with the top four selections paid $143.55.
Today at the Fairgrounds is the $400K Risen Star Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three year-olds. The race has several graded stakes winners including #13 Victory Formation, winner of the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in Jan., #10 Two Phils, winner of the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill at the end of October, and #9 Curly Jack, winner of the Iroquis at Churchill in September and runner-up in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill in Nov. The Handicap Wizard has #10 Two Phil’s as the first selection with a total win probability of 19.41%. Two Phil’s projects 2nd in SPD with a 25.3% win probability and first in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 37.1% and 51.5%. The second selection is #14 Private Creed with a 15.05% total win probability, who is the class in the field with a win percentage of 22.4%. Third is #12 Crupi with a total win probability of 13.75%, who projects first in SPD at 28% but with a Coefficient of Variance of 10.11%, representing slightly elevated risk. And fourth is #4 Determinedly with a total win probability of 11.13%, who projects 3rd in SPD with a 20.8% win estimate. Breading down the numbers, Two Phil’s has value at 8-1 both according to total win probability and his final speed projection of 25.3%, where his fair value by that metric is closer to 3-1. That said, his LP projection of 0% is concerning when this race is at 1 1/8 mi. and he only has the 4th best win percentage at 7.4%, putting his fair value according to that metric around 12-1. On the other hand, Private Creed has class in terms of win percentage as a 3-1 horse but is being discounted in the M/L because of his drop-off in form in the last race. Curly Jack is interesting because of his high COMP value of 43%, which may be distorted by the variance of his individual components like E1 in simulation, whose fair value is 8-1 according to win percentage of coming in 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill at the end of November, when he recording an LP value of 103. He has not raced since then but seems to have had decent workouts in February. In the final analysis, there is value with Two Phils, Determinedly and Crupi according to the final speed projections from the simulation, while Private Creed has value according to win percentage and Curly Jack according to COMP. #8 Tapit’s Conquest could be interesting in this spot as a Brad Cox horse, who today will be ridden by Florent Geroux, but he lost to Determinedly in his last race and otherwise does not have a lot of statistical support for his 8-1 price. The selections are #10 Two Phils, #14 Private Creed and #12 Crupi, and #4 Determinedly.
The PHW Turf program had an excellent result today in the 6th race at Tampa, a $28K allowance race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years-old and up. #6 Lenten Rose was the first selection with a total win probability of 26%, making the horse an overlay (3-1) relative to the M/L of 5-1. However, the horse went off at 12-1, representing a big opportunity. Lenten Rose projected best in E1 and E2 with 85.9% and 86.7% win estimates and most importantly in COMP at 66%! (3-5 equivalent fair value) win estimate, indicating the horse projected very favorably versus the field on a component level in the aggregate. Opportunities don’t often come like this, but with the Handicap Wizard you are on top of it. Lenten Rose paid $27 for the win.
Here are the projections for the two Kentucky Derby prep races today–the Sam F. Davis at Tampa and the Withers at Aqueduct. To see the full-size image, click on the image, then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right corner. Scroll down and then click on the link for full-size.
Today at Gulfstream is the $250K Holy Bull–a Kentucky Derby prep race–run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three year olds. According to the program’s projections, the race appears between #6 Legacy Isle, #4 Cyclone Isle and #8 Rocket Can, who all have total win probabilities in the low 20% range. Legacy Isle projects early speed with the highest win estimates for E1 and E2 at 69.8% and 40.5%. He is the class in the field with the highest win percentage of 23.27% after his win in the Mucho Macho Man stakes at GP in Jan. The second selection is #4 Cyclone Mischief, who has the second highest SPD in the field at 35.9% (about 2-1 in terms of odds) according to the simulation versus a Coefficient of Variance of 10.68%, indicating somewhat higher risk after the horse’s jump-up to a 99 Brisnet final speed figure in his last race. The third selection is #8 Rocket Can, who has the highest SPD estimate at 39.2% as well as the highest risk with a CV of 14.91%. In the final analysis, all of the horses are still fairly green and there is low data integrity for the race because the horses don’t have a lot of history. So the handicapper should take caution with this race and with the program’s results. That said, #4 Cyclone Mischief does appear to have the edge in speed, even with the second highest SPD projection at 35.9%, because he has lower risk than Rocket Can while also having the highest SPD value overall at 99, which he recorded his last time out in a $75K allowance race at Gulfstream on Jan 23. This may not be a good distance for Legacy Isle, who has an LP projection of 0% and showed himself to be tiring coming into the wire in his last race at 1 mi., when this race is one furlong farther. It’s understandable then Cyclone’s Mischief’s M/L is 2-1, which is in line with his SPD projection. On the other hand, Rocket Can has comparable speed, albeit with the higher risk, but also is trained by Bill Mott, who just won the $3 mil. Pegasus with Art Collector, whereas Romans has come up short a lot in the big races, not counting Shackleford in the Preakness.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 