Here is a truly excellent result by the PHW Grey program today at Monmouth in the 6th, a $12.5K claiming race on the dirt for three or four-year olds. The first two selections were #8 Dreaming of Smarty with a total win probability of 22.36% and #3 Kabod with a win probability of 21.85%. Kabod was being heavily discounted with final odds of 19-1 (versus approx. 4-1 fair value according to the program) while Dreaming of Smarty was about fairly valued at 4-1. With Kabod’s high COMP value of 62.3% (fair value less than 1-1), the horse took the early lead and held on to win by a length, fighting off a tough challenge by Dreaming of Smarty down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $219.40. Wow!
Here are the projection for tomorrow’s $1 mil. G1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth. The race is for three-year olds at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt. It looks to be a duel between #4 Mage’s class and #5 Tapit Trice’s projected speed, who is coming into the race in top form after posting a field best 109 final speed figure in his last race in the Belmont Stakes. #8 Arabian Knight should not be ignored as the 3rd choice, who has the second best final speed estimate and win percentage at 23% and 21.6% and the highest COMP at 57.9%, suggesting strength at the component level in comparison to the other horses. However, the horse last raced 175 days ago and has only had two starts, albeit, both wins, including winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn at the end of January. At 3-1 on the M/L, Mage is fairly valued while Tapit Trice is slightly over valued at the same odds. Arabian Knight could be well undervalued, at 5-2, if the 57.9% COMP value is believable. We saw something similar with National Treasure in the Preakness with the strong COMP, who pulled off the upset against Mage.
The program had excellent results at Belmont today. It had winners with its first selections in the G2 Suburban in the 5th with #4 Charge It, in the G1 Belmont Derby in the 10th with #5 Far Bridge and in the G3 Victory Ride in the 11th with #5 Maple Leaf Mel. It nearly had the winner in the Belmont Oaks in the 8th, too, with #5 Prerequisite, but that horse was beaten at the wire by #9 Aspen Grove—an Irish horse that had no data. Among the non-graded stakes races, the program had the winner with its first selection in the 4th with #6 Bouncer and in the 7th with #6 Dot’s Dollar. For the nine races on the card that were non-maiden, the program would have had a total profit of $30.80 with first selections versus a cost of $18 or a 71.1% ROI. The Turf Program was used for the 8th and 10th.
The program had very good results overall last Sat. at Belmont, having winners with its first selection in the 1st, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th races. Excluding the maiden race in the 1st, the program would have had winnings of $32 with its first selections for a net profit of $8 or 33%. Here are the selections and results. The Turf Program was used for the Jaipur in race 9.
Tomorrow is the last leg of the Triple Crown, the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes. It’s run at 1 ½ mile on the dirt for three year olds. The race features the best three-years olds in the country, including Preakness winner #5 National Treasure, Florida Derby winner, #6 Forte, Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, #8 Angel of Empire, Keeneland Blue Grass Winner, #2 Tapit Trice, and Peter Pan winner, #3 Archangelo. The program is favoring Forte with a total win probability of 21.87%. So, his fair value is in the 4-1 range but is 5/2 on the M/L. The second selection is Angel of Empire. His total win probability is a little less at 20.92%, again in that 4-1 range versus 7-2 on the M/L. Third is National Treasure with a 13.06% total win probability. He’s a slight underlay at 5-1 on the M/L. Fourth is Arcangelo with a 12.78% total win probability. He is right at fair value at 8-1 on the M/L. One fact worth noting about Arcangel is that he’s sired by Arrogate. Between Forte and Angel of Empire, you have two very good horses. Forte comes in well rested after a 70 day lay-off. The horse was scratched from the Kentucky Derby after incurring a foot injury. In his most recent workout at Belmont, Forte ran 59 seconds over 5f, which is a fairly good time. Forte is the class in the race with a 29.3% adjusted win percentage, giving him a 2-1 fair value according to that metric. He’s undefeated in his last five races. Forte has the second highest SPD projection at 22.9% win probability and the highest COMP at 38.5%. With fairly low risk at 6.51% CV, Forte’s COMP value indicates some substantial strength in his components in the aggregate according to the simulation. Angel of Empire has the highest SPD projection at 36.5% but that comes with the caveat that he is also high risk with a CV value of 14.16%. In this case, I don’t think that the CV value is telling because the horse has been in peak form over his last two races after getting off to a slow start in his career. In other words, Angel of Empire’s risk is due to his progress and not due to major inconsistency in his races. The COMP value is a bit weak at 10.5%, and the horse is not showing a lot late speed according to his projection. National Treasure has some things to like about him, like his 20% COMP and Win Percentage and his low risk at 3.93% CV. Archangelo has the third highest final speed estimate at 18.6% and highest LP value at 57.1%. If there is a Cinderella Story (out of nowhere!) in this race it is Arcangelo. The one detracting factor for Arcangelo is his low win percentage at only 3.7%, but he did win a G3 in his last race in the Peter Pan. The horses in this race will be much tougher. The final selections are #6 Forte, #8 Angel of Empire, #4 National Empire and #3 Arcangelo. To see the sheet in high resolution, click on it and then on the encircled i in the bottom left. Then scroll down and click on the link “View Full-Size” in the center.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 