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Tomorrow is the last leg of the Triple Crown, the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes. It’s run at 1 ½ mile on the dirt for three year olds. The race features the best three-years olds in the country, including Preakness winner #5 National Treasure, Florida Derby winner, #6 Forte, Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, #8 Angel of Empire, Keeneland Blue Grass Winner, #2 Tapit Trice, and Peter Pan winner, #3 Archangelo. The program is favoring Forte with a total win probability of 21.87%. So, his fair value is in the 4-1 range but is 5/2 on the M/L. The second selection is Angel of Empire. His total win probability is a little less at 20.92%, again in that 4-1 range versus 7-2 on the M/L. Third is National Treasure with a 13.06% total win probability. He’s a slight underlay at 5-1 on the M/L. Fourth is Arcangelo with a 12.78% total win probability. He is right at fair value at 8-1 on the M/L. One fact worth noting about Arcangel is that he’s sired by Arrogate. Between Forte and Angel of Empire, you have two very good horses. Forte comes in well rested after a 70 day lay-off. The horse was scratched from the Kentucky Derby after incurring a foot injury. In his most recent workout at Belmont, Forte ran 59 seconds over 5f, which is a fairly good time. Forte is the class in the race with a 29.3% adjusted win percentage, giving him a 2-1 fair value according to that metric. He’s undefeated in his last five races. Forte has the second highest SPD projection at 22.9% win probability and the highest COMP at 38.5%. With fairly low risk at 6.51% CV, Forte’s COMP value indicates some substantial strength in his components in the aggregate according to the simulation. Angel of Empire has the highest SPD projection at 36.5% but that comes with the caveat that he is also high risk with a CV value of 14.16%. In this case, I don’t think that the CV value is telling because the horse has been in peak form over his last two races after getting off to a slow start in his career. In other words, Angel of Empire’s risk is due to his progress and not due to major inconsistency in his races. The COMP value is a bit weak at 10.5%, and the horse is not showing a lot late speed according to his projection. National Treasure has some things to like about him, like his 20% COMP and Win Percentage and his low risk at 3.93% CV. Archangelo has the third highest final speed estimate at 18.6% and highest LP value at 57.1%. If there is a Cinderella Story (out of nowhere!) in this race it is Arcangelo. The one detracting factor for Arcangelo is his low win percentage at only 3.7%, but he did win a G3 in his last race in the Peter Pan. The horses in this race will be much tougher. The final selections are #6 Forte, #8 Angel of Empire, #4 National Empire and #3 Arcangelo. To see the sheet in high resolution, click on it and then on the encircled i in the bottom left. Then scroll down and click on the link “View Full-Size” in the center.

The program had an excellent result in the 7th race today at Gulfstream, a $20K claiming race at 5.5f for three-year old fillies and mares, in getting the exacta order correct. The first selection was #6 Raptuous, who had a total win probability of 28.33% versus final odds of 5/2. The horse was even to a slight overlay at that price. The odds had been as high as 7-2 shortly before the start. Raptuous had both the highest win percentage at 37.2% and the highest SPD projection at 29.3%. The horse also had the highest LP at 45.3%, which was the difference in the race. Raptuous came from off the lead to overtake #7 Big Band Lizziann down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $41.20.

Some people have been scratching their heads after National’s Treasure’s upset in the Preakness. It was a strange race from the late scratch of First Mission to the outcome of the Kentucky Derby winner getting beat. Mage’s final odds of 7-5 might have been telling, where the public discounted him rather than making him an underlay (1 or less), which would have been the norm in a big race like this one. As mentioned in the preview, National Treasure’s COMP value of 72.2% was extraordinary high for a non-favorite. The COMP value, again, is combined win probabilities of the individual speed figures (i.e., E1, E2 and LP) from the simulation. On that basis, he was a 2-5 horse. Instead, he went off at a little less than 3-1. The high COMP value showed National Treasure’s power that he was strong from start to finish. Of course, COMP is not fool-proof but indicates only how the numbers stack up in a rigorous comparison with a one thousand times simulation. The other factor is that Baffert has been very successful in the Preakness. National Treasure gave him his eighth win.

Here are the projections again after the scratch of #8 First Mission.

Tomorrow is the second of the Triple Crown Races, the $1.5 mil. Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. It’s run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. After his win in the Kentucky Derby, #3 Mage is the M/L favorite at 8/5 odds. That it right about where the Handicap Wizard is valuing him in terms of his total win probability of 38.05%. However, he’s better than 8/5 according to his final speed projection of 47.7% and his stakes weighted Win Percentage at 53.4%, as in 1-1 odds. Next is #8 First Mission, who is 5/2 on the M/L. The Handicap Wizard has him as the third selection and at around 6-1 fair value with a total win probability of 15.53%. First Mission is the only other horse than Mage to have recorded at 103 final speed figure, which he did in his last race at Keeneland in winning the Lexington Stakes on Apr. 15. Third in the M/L is #1 National Treasure at 4-1. This is a Bob Baffert trained horse after Baffert was banned from running any horses in the Kentucky Derby. The Handicap Wizard has National Treasure as its second selection with a total win probability of 17.92% or about 5-1 fair value. National Treasure finished fourth recently in the Santa Anita Derby, ending behind Practical Move, Mandarin Hero and Skinner. In other words, National Treasure is not even the best horse to come out of Santa Anita. National Treasure has high projections in E1 and E2 of 83.5% and 28.9%, which makes him the speed in the race. What is unusual about National Treasure’s numbers is his high COMP value of 61.4%, meaning that his individual speed components in E1, E2 and LP compare very well in the aggregate to the other horses in the simulation. COMP is typically correlated with SPD, but Mage has the superior SPD projection in this field. The fourth selection according to the program is #5 Red Route One with a total win probability of 13.32% or about 8-1 fair value. He is 10-1 on the M/L. Red Route One projects in the top three horses in final speed at 18.5%-win probability. By that metric his fair value drops down as low as 5-1, and his late pace projects strongest at 38.1% win probability. Red Route One won his last race, a $200K stakes race at Oaklawn at 1 1/16 mi. In the final analysis, Mage looks like he can win this second leg of the Triple Crown, with him being the class in the race, as evidenced by his 53.4% Win Percentage in this field. His odds likely will move to even, as the public overbets the favorite. However, neither First Mission or even Red Route One should be discounted. First Mission is Brad Cox trained horse, who showed a good late kick in the Lexington. Red Route One is another closer himself. The final selections are #3 Mage, #1 National Treasure, #8 First Mission and #5 Red Route One.