Category: Uncategorized

On Saturday at Gulfstream is the $3 mil. Pegasus World Cup Invitational, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The race features #10 Cyberknife, runner-up in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile in Nov., #7 Skippinglongstockings, winner of the G3 Harlan’s Holiday on New Year’s Eve, #1 Proxy, winner of the G1 Clark at Churchill in December and #4 White Abbario, winner of last year’s Florida Derby. In line with his M/L of 5-2, the Handicap Wizard is favoring #10 Cyberknife as its first selection with a total probability of 28.19%. The horse projects 1st in final speed with a 40.9% win estimate while having low risk, reflected in its Coefficient of Variance of 4.67%. Cyberknife is also the class in the field with a 22.4% Win Percentage adjusted for stakes. The second selection is #4 White Abbario with a 14.4% total win probability versus a M/L of 10-1, making the horse an overlay. White Abbario projects second in final speed at 29.3% win probability, though is riskier than Cyberknife with a CV value of 8.68%. Third is #1 Proxy with a total win probability of 8.57%, though projects first in late speed with a LP estimate of 41.4%. In the final analysis, this race looks like Cyberknife’s to win, if he is able to maintain his recent top form. To see the page in full-resolution, click on the encircled “i” on the bottom right after clicking on the image. Then scroll down and click on the full-size link.

There was an excellent result for the Turf program at Gulfstream today, this time in the 8th, a $20K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for four-year olds. The program had the order of the exacta reversed, which had a huge payout because of the second selection, #6 Laker Mamba, winning at 21-1. #11 Exult was the first selection with a win probability of 21.21%. Laker Mamba was not too far behind at 17.68% win probability. What was notable among the metrics was Laker Mamba’s dominant E1 and E2 projections (52.1% and 32.2%) and high COMP value at 43.3%, where the horse was projecting at 6-5 in terms of the components in the simulation in the aggregate. The race went largely according to the projections, with Laker Mamba setting the pace with his speed, who by the quarter pole had built such a lead that he was able to sail home. Exult was the class in this race with a win percentage of 40.3%, who held true to his class by finishing second. The $2 exacta with 6,11 paid $237.80. This handicapper is kicking himself for this being the one that got away.

The Handicap Wizard had a good result today in the 6th race at Gulfstream, a $20K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares. The program had #5 American of Course as its first selection with a total win probability of 26.26% compared to final odds of 3-1. The handicapper should understand that the horse’s odds upon conversion from probability is nearly identical to the final odds, showing how accurate the program is that it can independently arrive at that market valuation. American of Course projected 1st in SPD at 33.3%, while having relatively low risk of 6.67% for the Coefficient of Variance. The horse had strong E1 and E2 estimate of 36.5% and 46.5%—well suited to the 7f distance—and also a strong COMP value of 40.7% (about 7-5 fair value in this metric). The odds favorite, #7 Invaluable, at 6-5 had a win probability of 17.23%, making him a considerable overlay. In the race, American of Course took the early lead and went on to win convincingly in the short field.

Now that it is a new year, all users of PHW 4.1 Grey and PHW 4.1 Turf and all previous versions will have to create a new folder for 2023 under their master folder and then re-configure the program. Here are the instructions. Create a folder named 2023 in the same folder where your year folders for 2022 and 2021 are found. In the 2023 folder then create folders for all the tracks you are using. Next, you will need to have purchased Brisnet data files for any 2023 dates and copy and paste them in the tracks folders under 2023. At this point, you can re-configure the program by clicking on “Update” on the left on the Main sheet. This will update the program for all 2023 DRF data files. All these steps are necessary to keep the program going in 2023.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in another notable stakes race at Gulfstream on Saturday in the 10th, the $125K Harlan’s Holiday, which was at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The program had #7 Skippinglongstocking as its first selection with a win probability of 32.84% compared to final odds of 3-1. At that price the horse was a slight underlay. Skippinglongstocking projected dominantly in SPD at 50.7% while having low risk with a CV value of 5.41%. The horse also had the highest win percentage at 28%. In the race, #2 Pioneer of Medina took the early lead, while Skippinglongstocking stalked in second position on the back stretch. By the time the field reached the half mile point, Skippinglongstocking started to make his move and bolted to the lead coming out of the far turn. Simplication moved into second down the final stretch, only to be overtaken by a re-rallying Pioneer of Medina at the wire, edging Simplication for second by a nose. Otherwise, the Handicap Wizard would have had the correct order of the exacta in 7,4. Skippinglongstocking paid $8.40 for the win.