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Today at Keeneland is the $6 mil. Breeders Cup Classic, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The race features a grand ten-horse field, including Kentucky Derby winner, #9 Authentic at 6-1 on the M/L, Belmont Stakes, Travers and Florida Derby winner, #1 Tiz the Law at 3-1, the 2019 Kentucky Derby winner before the disqualification, #10 Maximum Security at 7-2, and Awesome Again and Whitney Stakes winner, #8 Improbable at 5-2, among others. The race is a classic contest between speed and winning percentage, with Tiz the Law projecting best with a 37.9% winning SPD estimate and Maximum Security having the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 47.7%. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Maximum Security in this contest with a total win probability of 30.43%, making him an underlay compared to his 7-2 M/L odds. The horse has won eleven out of thirteen career starts, but lost most recently to Improbable in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita in late September. The question with Maximum Security is whether his 2nd place performance in the Awesome Again was an anomaly or whether the horse has begun to decline. Judging by comments by his trainer, Bob Baffert, on Oct. 29, “Max” has benefited from the six-week break and could not look any better after his breeze on that date. He also said that Maximum Security tired after a brisk pace in his last race, which saw the horse record E1 and E2 figures of 109 and 123. Whatever Maximum Security’s form is coming into the race, it is clear that the horse has the most will to win of any of the horses in the field and should be a factor, at least in terms of pace, on Saturday, where he projects best in terms of E1 and E2 with estimates of 57.3% and 46.5%. He also has the highest COMP estimate in the field at 32.5%, which was the winning indicator in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Next is #2 Tiz the Law as the second selection with a total win probability of 18.46%, who has lost only one race as a three-year-old and that was in the Kentucky Derby in September, when he was bested by Authentic. Tiz the Law did show declining form in that race as his third race off the layoff, when he had less than a month’s rest after winning the Travers at Saratoga in August while putting up a career best final speed figure of 115. Like with Maximum Security, Tiz the Law should benefit from an extended rest since his last race, which is two months in his case. Most recently, he worked 5f at Keeneland on Oct. 31 in 0:59. The third selection is #8 Improbable with a total win probability of 14.28%, who beat his stable mate, Maximum Security, in the Awesome Again stakes by four lengths, finishing under a hand-ride. While not projecting as well as Tiz the Law in terms of final speed, Improbable projects better in E1, E2 and LP and has the second highest COMP estimate after Maximum Security at 31.8%. #9 Authentic is the fourth choice with a total win probability of 13.62%, who has the second highest winning percentage, thanks to his win in the Kentucky Derby, at 13.4%. Selections: Maximum Security, Tiz the Law, Improbable and Authentic. As a long shot, Global Campaign at 20-1 on the M/L has value compared to his final speed estimate of 8.4%, where he ranks 4th. Global Campaign is a winner of his last two—the Woodward and the Monmouth Cup. Click on the image below and then on the link in the lower right hand corner to see in high resolution.

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The Handicap Wizard did well today in the 4th at Parx, a $7.5K claiming race for three-year-olds at 5.5f, with its first selection, #7 Moe Trouble at 3-1. The program assigned it a winning probability of 39.26%, due largely to a 62% winning percentage, adjusted for stakes. The horse also was dominant in E1 and E2 according to the simulation with win estimates of 64.8% and 75.2%. Despite not performing well its last two starts, Moe Trouble had no trouble today in getting the win with a wire-to-wire performance. His jockey and trainer were best in the field with winning percentages of 21% and 19%. Moe Trouble was well undervalued at 3-1 and paid $8.60. This is exactly what you would like to see from a first selection.

The Handicap Wizard had good results in the graded stakes races at Belmont today, winning three out of eight with its top selections along with having one winner with a second selection. With first selections, the Handicap Wizard had a profit of $11.30 for eight $2 single wagers and a ROI of +70.62%. The program had winners in the 6th in the $175K Empire Distaff Handicap with #6 Lucky Move at 4-1, in the 7th in the $125K Hudson Handicap with #1 Tribecca at 5-1 and in the 8th in the $150K Mohawk Stakes on turf with #7 Somelikeithotbrown at 6-5. The program’s 2nd selection, #2 Mr. Buff, finished 1st at 7-2 in the $175K Empire Classic Handicap in the 10th. The graded stakes races in the 2nd and 3rd were for two-year-olds and so there was minimal data to evaluate, while the horse that won the graded stakes race in the 9th was the biggest long-shot on the board at 23-1.

Race 6 – Empire Distaff

Race 7 – Hudson Handicap

Race 8 – Mohawk Stakes

Race 10 – Empire Classic

The program had another nice result in the 5th race at Parx today, a $25K optional claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The 1st selection was #6 Isabellaalexa at 5-2 versus a total win probability of 23.50%. The horse had the highest SPD estimate at 31.8% and highest WP% at 21.2%, earning it a FIT2 checkmark. The 2nd selection was #2 Light Up the Night with a 19.62% win probability. Light Up the Night had the 2nd highest SPD estimate at 28.4% and the highest LP estimate at 46.2%. That was the order of the exacta (6-2). Isabellaalexa paid $7.20, while the $2 exacta paid $43.60.

In race 3 today at Monmouth, a $12.5K claiming race run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up, the Handicap Wizard saw a good result with its 1st selection, #11 City Plan. Despite odds of 23-1, the Turf 4.0 Program assessed the horse as best in the field with a total win probability of 16.49%. City Plan was ranked 3rd according to the final speed simulation with a 21% win estimate, but was 1st according to COMP at 68.5%. Granted City Plan was not an easy horse to choose, as it had only run on turf once before and its recent starts had been poor. On turf, however, the math favored the horse, including an expected ROI of 296%! In the race, City Plan led throughout but was caught by #1 Sadler Bay just before the wire. Still, City Plan paid $27.00 for the place.