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Here are the projections for the $3 mil. Kentucky Derby at Churchill on Saturday, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features #17 Tiz the Law at 3-5 on the M/L, who has won his last four races, three of which were G1s, including the Travers, the Belmont and the Florida Derby. Vying against him is Baffert trained, #18 Authentic, winner of the G1 Haskell, the G2 San Felipe and the G3 Sham, as well as Santa Anita Derby winner, #16 Honor A.P., and Haskell runner-up, #15 NY Traffic. Tiz the Law is sitting in the driver’s seat in this race, having the highest total winning probability at 31.68% and a 51.6% winning SPD estimate according to the simulation. With a fair value then around 2-1, Tiz the Law would be expensive according to the M/L price of 3-5 in this seventeen horse field, which is one less after the scratch of #6 King Guillermo yesterday due to fever. Given the long distance of the race, many of the horses will be tiring down the stretch, except those with strong LP estimates, who are Tiz the Law at 24.6%, Honor A.P. at 24.5% and NY Traffic 23.7%. The only horse of the three offering value according to this metric is NY Traffic at 20-1 on the M/L, who is this handicapper’s pick to win. My choice has to do with the significant progression of the horse from his 2nd place finish in the G3 Matt Winn at Churchill in late May to his very close 2nd place finish in the Haskell in mid July, when he nearly caught Authentic at the wire while recording a career best SPD of 107. The increase from 95 to 107 in the span of two months suggests the horse has more upside in the Kentucky Derby, where he has had nearly the same amount of rest this time around. His owner, John Fanelli, indicated as much in an interview from Sept. 2, saying his horse has continued to improve in training. What is remarkable about NY Traffic is that he is a freak-of-nature, in that the horse has no great pedigree as a son of Cross Traffic on the sire-side and of Mamie Reilly on the dam-side. With Tiz the Law coming off a career best 115 SPD just a month ago, the possibility for a regression by him off the short rest is real. Therefore, I am looking for NY Traffic to upset Tiz the Law, with Honor A.P. finishing 3rd. The program’s selections are Tiz the Law, Authentic, Honor A.P. and Max Player. After clicking on the image, click on the link on the bottom right to see in full resolution.

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There are times when a user may question the results of the Handicap Wizard, including this user, for one reason or another, yet time and time again the winning algorithm holds up. One such race was race 6 at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 6f for three-year-olds. The program’s first selection was #3 Captain Duke at 2-1 with a 22.7% total win probability, followed by #2 One Fast at 16-1 with a 16.95% win probability. On the face of the results of his simulated speed data, there was no reason to believe that One Fast had any chance in this race, who had 0% across the board. However, the horse was the winning-est in the field with a 41.9% WP adjusted for stakes and was coming off a 288 day layoff. In the race, One Fast broke quickest from the gate, with Captain Duke close behind in second. It stayed this way the whole race, as Captain Duke pulled off the big upset. The $2 exacta paid $153.60.

Here was a nice result today in the 1st at Saratoga, a $75K maiden race off the turf at 1 1/8 mi. for three-year olds and up. In a seven horse field that had five horses with similar odds between 9-5 and 3-1, the program’s first selection in #10 Lost in Rome at 3-1 under the reins of Luiz Saez went wire-to-wire. The horse was strong in all the metrics, including a 33.4% SPD winning estimate, a 57% COMP estimate and a 41.4% Winning Percentage adjusted for stakes. Lost in Rome paid $8.90. The other horse that received a FIT2 checkmark—Magic Mojo because of a 50% LP estimate—came in second.

In celebration of the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, we are offering a sale all this week on Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.1 Grey and 4.0 Turf. See the Purchase page for pricing.

One of the best results today came in the 8th race a Saratoga, a $65K allowance race run at 5 1/2f on the turf for three-year olds. The program had #4 Freewheeler as it’s top selection with a 32.66% total win probability, who was also the odds favorite at 4-5. The horse ranked first in SPD with a 46.1% win estimate also first in WP% at 33.1.%. For this the horse earned itself a FIT2 checkmark, one of the new features in Version 4.1. The next two selections were #9 Crackshot at 7-2 versus a win probability of 22.74% and #8 Noble Emotion at 10-1 versus a win probability of 14.90%. Noble Emotion was well suited to this short distance with favorable E1 and E2 win estimates of 33.3% and 19.95%, which on that basis put his fair value at 5-2 (compared to odds of 10-1!). In the race, Noble Emotion proved the best horse, going wire-to-wire while #4 Freewheeler came in second by a length. The selections 9-4 follow a successful exacta strategy with the program of boxing the odds favorite with the top two model selections, when they are not the favorite. Two $1 boxed exacta wagers with 4-8 and 4-9 for a cost of $4.00 paid $27.50. The strategy works because of the propensity of the odds favorite to win or place around 50% of the time or better. When this happens, the Handicap Wizard needs to be right about only one of its top two selections after the favorite, like it was in this race with a 10-1 horse winning at long odds.