Category: Uncategorized

$85K Skidmore Stakes at Saratoga, Fri., Aug. 21

The program had the superfecta with its top four selections in race 3rd at Saratoga today—the $85K Skidmore takes at 5 1/2f on the turf for two-year-olds. Heavily favored in the odds, #6 Golden Pal won at 3-5 followed by #5 Fauci at 3-1, then #4 Sky’s Not Falling at 5-1 and #1 Sunny Isle Beach at 10-1. The $0.10 superfecta paid $0.81. Even though it was a predictable result according to the odds, this race validates the Handicap Wizard quantitative approach as an accurate ordering system independent of the odds, while having the same order of the odds.

$75K Tale of the Cat Stakes at Saratoga, Thurs., Aug. 20

The Handicap Wizard had another exacta result today in the 7th at Saratoga—the $75K Tale of the Cat Stakes—run at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The program’s first selection was the odds favorite, #2 Stan the Man at 4-5, with a 33.23% win probability and had #4 My Boy Tate at 9-2 as its second selection with 21.81%. That is how the order went, with Stan The Man rallying down the stretch on the outside to win by under two lengths, while # My Boy Tate edged out #1 T Loves a Fight at 7-2 for second. The $2 exacta paid $15.20.

Race 5 at Gulfstream, Thurs., Aug. 20

The program had a nice exacta result in the 5th today at Gulfstream, a $16K maiden claiming race on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. In a competitive field with no horse receiving even a 20% win probability, #2 Amadora was the first selection at 7-1 with an 18.0% win probability followed by #7 Centless Drama at 2-1 with 16.69%. Centless Drama was a co-favorite in the odds along with #4 Dance Till Dawn at 2-1. In the race, Centless Drama broke well from the gate and led around the first turn, while Amadora stuck to the rail and stalked three back. On the back stretch, Amadora fought the jockey before being allowed to pick up the pace at the half mile pole. Around the far turn Amadora had cut Centless Drama’s length to two lengths before shooting through a lane to the outside down the stretch and then bolting home to victory. Amadora paid $16.20, while the $2 exacta paid $55.

G1 $500K Alabama at Saratoga, Sat., Aug 15

The 4.1 Grey program had the winner with its top selection in the $500K Alabama in the 9th at Saratoga today, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year old fillies. With a total win probability of 38.9%, thanks to a 55.3% SPD estimate and a 30.4% winning percentage, #5 Swiss Skydiver at 1-1 went wire-to-wire in the win. #4 Bonny South, who had the second highest winning percentage at 18.9%, finished second at 10-1. Swiss Skydiver paid $4.40.

Race 1 at Gulfstream, Sat., Aug. 15

There was a nice result in race 1 at Gulfstream today, run at 1 1/6 mi. on the turf for four-year olds. The Turf Program’s second selection in #5 Mustang Cat was an underlay and the most undervalued horse at 10-1 versus a total win probability of 17.16%, with an expected ROI of +89%. The horse was dominant in E1 and E2 with winning estimates of 59.4% and 45.5% and also had the highest COMP at 49%, yet the money line dismissed him at 15-1. In the race, Mustang Cat went wire to wire, holding off a late surge by the favorite #4 Keep Quiet at 7-5. Mustang Cat paid $22.00 for the win.