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There was a nice result in race 5 at Tampa today, a $10K claiming race at 1 mi on the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. According to the HW Turf Program, the horse with highest win probability was #7 Miss Lotus Flower at 11-1. Shortly before post the horse had been 30-1! The horse’s 50% win probability was due to a single race on the turf ten races back, in which the horse recorded a top-in-the-field final speed figure of 76. The race had two favorites in #1 Beachtreasuregirl at 3-1 and #8 Wildcat Merry at 7-2. In the race, the #6 horse, Premiere Justice, who was a first-time turf starter at 9-2, took the lead by the half mile pole, followed closely by #8 Wildcat Merry. #1 Beachtreasure tracked in forth place seven lengths back. By the top of the stretch, Premiere Justice took clear command of first, while Miss Lotus rallied from the outside only to come up a length short in the end. Miss Lotus Flower lower paid $11.60 for the place. The race goes to show how precise the Turf Program is, that with just one set of speed figures for one race it was able to gauge Miss Lotus Flower’s historical strength on the turf surface correctly. On both dirt and turf, Premiere Justice had the second highest winning percentage at 15.7%, with strength in the E1 and E2 estimates. Here it would have prudent to look at the results of both the Grey and Turf models to get the full picture of competitiveness of the horses overall and specifically on turf.

The Handicap Wizard had a nice result in the 6th race at Tampa on Saturday, a $10K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years old and up. The top three selections were #9 Elusive Rider at 17-1, #8 I Dream of Lois at 7-2 and #6 Anditsafact at 12-1. Their win probabilities were all close at 19.02%, 17.69% and 18.61%. The favorite according to the final odds was #4 Colonels Daughter at 8-5, whom the program had as a fifth selection with a 9.92% win probability. In the race, Elusive Rider surged down the stretch to win, while #8 Dream of Lois finished second. Elusive Ruler paid $37, while the $2 exacta box (6,8,9) paid $187.40.

Here were the results of the program for the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby on Saturday. It had the exactas with its top two selections in both races, first with #1 Charlatan and #11 Basin in the first division and next with #5 Nadal and #4 King Guillermo in the second division. The win probabilities between Nadal and King Guillermo were very close, with less than two percentage points separating the two horses. In the race, King Guillermo came within a length of Nadal down the stretch, but Nadal pulled away in the final 1/16 mi. to win by three lengths.

Division 1

Division 2

There was an excellent opportunity in race 8 at Will Rodgers today to take advantage of long odds on the #2 horse, Fox Run, to hit a big exacta. #8 Spendaholic was the favorite at 1-1 and top selection with a win probability of 23.45%. Spendaholic had the highest final speed estimate at 36.7% as well as the highest E1 and E2 estimate at 53.6% and 47.7%. Using this horse in an exacta box, the next horse to take according to final speed was #2 Foxrun at 25.7%, who at 17-1 odds was priced at a steep discount (3-1 FV by final speed). This was surprising considering that the horse was coming into the race in better form than Spendaholic. In the race, Foxrun dug in and beat Spendaholic down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $144.60.

In the HW strategy book, found under the HW Book link above, there is a chapter on advanced strategies, in which it talks about how one can be successful focusing on individual metrics, instead of solely on the TOP (Total Win Probability) category. At Tampa yesterday there were two races that illustrate this strategy. In race 2, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds, the #5 horse, Itsgottabemyway, had an exceptionally high LP estimate of 72.9%, suggesting the horse would dominate the other horses over the final quarter. That is what happened in the race, with Itsgottabemyway winning easily down the stretch. The horse paid $14.20.

In the 8th race, a $20K optional claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year-olds, the favorite was #8 Summer Assault, who at 3-5 odds had a win probability of 34.59%, thanks to a 100% estimate in the final speed category (SPD). The second selection was #3 Sea Lover at 10-1 odds with a 25.37% win probability. Here the betting public overbet Summer Assault because of his final speed, while failing to take into account Sea Lover’s dominate early speed advantage, as shown in its E1 and E2 estimates of 82.2% and 100.0%. The horse did not disappoint, winning down the stretch while paying $21.40. The Grey version was used for this race, because of the limited turf data and limited data overall.