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In race 6 at Gulfstream yesterday, a $35K maiden claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up, #8 Youcantcatchcurlin was a horse that was overlooked at 30-1 but offered significant value in terms of speed. Though the horse had no money finishes in two races, he rated third best according to the final speed simulation with a 10.8% win estimate. He fared even better according to E1, E2 and LP individually with estimates of 28.2%, 15.4% and 41.5%, not to mention the horse showing good progression in his last race and being a son of Curlin! This all pointed to a horse that was at a steep discount at 30-1, whose fair value was below 9-1 and probably closer to 5-1. In the race, #4 Swing West broke fastest from the gate and was followed closely by one of the favorites, #5, Fried Rice King at 2-1, who was the top selection according to the program. Following a fast opening quarter of 22.75, Youcantcatchcurlin ran some nine lengths back before launching a bid at the half mile pole that propelled him to the lead at the top stretch, where he dug in all the way to the wire, holding off the other favorite, #6 Tons of Gold at 9-5, and resulting in a dead heat. Youcantcatchcurlin paid $22.40 for the win tie and $17.20 for the place.

There was a nice result in race 5 at Tampa today, a $10K claiming race at 1 mi on the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. According to the HW Turf Program, the horse with highest win probability was #7 Miss Lotus Flower at 11-1. Shortly before post the horse had been 30-1! The horse’s 50% win probability was due to a single race on the turf ten races back, in which the horse recorded a top-in-the-field final speed figure of 76. The race had two favorites in #1 Beachtreasuregirl at 3-1 and #8 Wildcat Merry at 7-2. In the race, the #6 horse, Premiere Justice, who was a first-time turf starter at 9-2, took the lead by the half mile pole, followed closely by #8 Wildcat Merry. #1 Beachtreasure tracked in forth place seven lengths back. By the top of the stretch, Premiere Justice took clear command of first, while Miss Lotus rallied from the outside only to come up a length short in the end. Miss Lotus Flower lower paid $11.60 for the place. The race goes to show how precise the Turf Program is, that with just one set of speed figures for one race it was able to gauge Miss Lotus Flower’s historical strength on the turf surface correctly. On both dirt and turf, Premiere Justice had the second highest winning percentage at 15.7%, with strength in the E1 and E2 estimates. Here it would have prudent to look at the results of both the Grey and Turf models to get the full picture of competitiveness of the horses overall and specifically on turf.

The Handicap Wizard had a nice result in the 6th race at Tampa on Saturday, a $10K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years old and up. The top three selections were #9 Elusive Rider at 17-1, #8 I Dream of Lois at 7-2 and #6 Anditsafact at 12-1. Their win probabilities were all close at 19.02%, 17.69% and 18.61%. The favorite according to the final odds was #4 Colonels Daughter at 8-5, whom the program had as a fifth selection with a 9.92% win probability. In the race, Elusive Rider surged down the stretch to win, while #8 Dream of Lois finished second. Elusive Ruler paid $37, while the $2 exacta box (6,8,9) paid $187.40.

Here were the results of the program for the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby on Saturday. It had the exactas with its top two selections in both races, first with #1 Charlatan and #11 Basin in the first division and next with #5 Nadal and #4 King Guillermo in the second division. The win probabilities between Nadal and King Guillermo were very close, with less than two percentage points separating the two horses. In the race, King Guillermo came within a length of Nadal down the stretch, but Nadal pulled away in the final 1/16 mi. to win by three lengths.

Division 1

Division 2

There was an excellent opportunity in race 8 at Will Rodgers today to take advantage of long odds on the #2 horse, Fox Run, to hit a big exacta. #8 Spendaholic was the favorite at 1-1 and top selection with a win probability of 23.45%. Spendaholic had the highest final speed estimate at 36.7% as well as the highest E1 and E2 estimate at 53.6% and 47.7%. Using this horse in an exacta box, the next horse to take according to final speed was #2 Foxrun at 25.7%, who at 17-1 odds was priced at a steep discount (3-1 FV by final speed). This was surprising considering that the horse was coming into the race in better form than Spendaholic. In the race, Foxrun dug in and beat Spendaholic down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $144.60.