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There was a spectacular result today in 3rd at Fairgrounds, a $5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years old and up. At 21-1, #4 Heart of Soul was being neglected by the market, even though she had good data showing early speed that made the horse competitive in this kind of race. Her E1 and E2 estimates from simulation were 31.6% and 18.2% with a 22.0% COMP figure. The COMP figure was solid because of Heart and Soul’s Coefficient of Variance ratio of only 7%, indicating that the horse had relatively low risk. On that basis, the horse was fairly valued at 4-1 compared to its price of 21-1. The market favored #7 Blondie Lox Babe at 5-2 and #9 Lady Fitzgerald at 7-2 because of their superior Winning Percentages at 27% and 20%. Lady Fitzgerald also had the edge in final speed at 63.5%, but had no evidence of early speed. In the race, Heart of Soul broke well from the gate to take the early lead. She remained in the driver’s seat on the back-stretch, around the far turn, and into the final stretch, when she led by two lengths. Digging in, she held off a late challenge by #5 Kehron’s Creed at 7-1 to get the win. Heart and Soul paid $45.20. This was an example of using advanced handicapping techniques with the program and it paid off nicely.

The Handicap Wizard had good results in both graded stakes races at Gulfstream today. In the $150K Mashua River Stakes in the 8th, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for four year-old fillies and mares, the program had it as a toss up between Magic Star at 5-2 with a 24.86% winning probability and #5 Andina Del Sur at 2-1 with a 24.84% winning probability. Magic Star won the race, thanks to a 29% SPD estimate and a dominant 77.5% LP estimate, which was favorable for the longer distance of this race. Magic Star paid $7.00 for the win. Andina Del Sur finished 3rd by under a length.

In the 10th race, the $100K Tropical Turf Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and upwards, the Handicap Wizard Turf program had #8 Thread of Blue as its top selection with a total winning probability of 41.36%, which was in-line with its 8-5 odds.  However, the highest COMP estimates in the field went to #4 Gidu at 37.1% and #6 Tusk  at 19.6%. Even though the horses had low Winning Percentages at 2.6% and 3.8%, their COMP estimates were solid because of the low Coefficient of Variance of both horses at 5% and 4%, respectively, implying high confidence in the COMP figures. Again, the COMP estimate is the result of a simulation of E1, E2 and LP added together. By that measure, both horses were overlays relative to their 6-1 and 8-1 odds. As it turns out, Tusk was the winner and Gidu finished second. Tusk paid $19 for the win. The $2 exacta paid $131.20.

Not every race, of course, is going to go according to the program’s top selections. When it doesn’t, there are often opportunities to hit on horses at big odds as was the case in race 7 at Gulfstream, a $12.5K claiming race at 6.5f on the dirt for four-year old fillies and mares. At 28-1, My Sebastiana did not garner much betting interest, but upon a closer look at her data, there were some good reasons to like the horse. First, despite having a low final speed estimate, the horse indicated good early speed in the E1 and E2 metrics  with values of 14.4% and 54.6%. This meant that the horse was likely to be competitive at the sprinting distance of 6.5f. With a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, at nearly 10%, the horse was priced at a substantial discount to its 28-1 odds, with that metric putting the horse’s value more in the range of 9-1 or 10-1. Taking a flier on My Sebastiana paid off, as the horse won the race down the stretch. While this is an example of a race with high degree of handicapping difficulty, the Handicap Wizard made it possible to find a horse like this from the data. My Sebastiana paid $58.80 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard is tearing it up in South Florida today with another winner in race 6 at Tampa, an $8K claiming race at 5 1/2f on the dirt for four-year old fillies and mares. #1 Caseyoudidntknow at 2-1 was the model’s top selection by a wide margin at 36.73% winning probability, thanks to a 61.1% SPD and a 79.6% LP estimate. In the race, Caseyoudidntknow lagged behind the leaders until the final stretch, when she came on strong down the center to overtake #13 Mardi Gras Girl at 13-1 at the wire. The horse paid $6.60 for the win.

After having another winner with its top selection in the 3rd at Gulfstream with #4 Castagno at 5-2, the Handicap Wizard found value in the 5th race, a $12.5K maiden claiming race at 6f for three year old fillies on the dirt, in the second selection—#8 Two Cents Worth at 6-1. With a total winning probability of 34.14%, which was only slightly below that of the top selection, Two Cents Worth offered good value either to win or to place. In the race, the horse led coming out of the gate and went on to win by seven lengths in a no contest. Two Cents Worth paid $15.40 for the win, while the place paid $7.00.