Continuing the winning streak on Friday, the Handicap Wizard Grey program had another successful result in the 2nd race at Tampa, a $5K claiming race at 5 1/2f on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The model had #3 Moonwalker at 7-2 as it top selection with a total winning probability of 25.28%, making it a slight underlay. In the race, Moonwalker broke well from the gate and was among the leaders heading down the back stretch along with the live odds favorite, #3 Arathorn at 8-5. Moonwalker then put it into high gear going around the far turn and never looked back, winning by two lengths in a fairly easy contest. The horse paid $9.60 for the win.
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The Handicap Wizard Turf program got off to a good start at Gulfstream today in the 1st, a $25K maiden claiming race at 5f for fillies and mares four-years old an up. In a field of twelve, the program had #8 Lady Noy as its top selection with a 29.07% total winning probability. The horse was at a discount compared to its 5-1 odds. In the race, Lady Noy broke well from the gate, but #1 Miss Loretta took over the lead on the back stretch. After a scorching opening quarter of 21 seconds and change, Lady Noy fell back going around the far turn, only to re-engage along the rail down the stretch. Beating two horses with lower odds in #9 Cookie Cove at 9-5 and #6 Sabina Park at 7-2, Lady Noy paid $12.00 for the win. The $2 exacta with #12 Dancingwithjimmieb paid $612.40. It was possible to find Dancingwithjimmieb in the exacta because of her 3rd highest COMP estimate in the field at 12.5% behind #6 Sabina Park at 15% and Lady Noy at 69%.
Another interesting race today was the 5th at Gulfstream, a $19K claiming race at 7f for four-year olds and up on the dirt. #6 Smoke and Gloat at 7-5 was the live odds and model favorite, but was an overlay according to his 35% winning probability. There was value in the second and third program selections in #4 Diamond Majesty and #5 Animal Trick both at 15-1, who had winning probabilities of 23.72% and 18.75% (around 3-1 and 4-1 fair values). One could have taken the horses as combined win or place selections, considering that the odds were substantial for both. In the race, Smoke and Gloat broke well from the gate and led going down the backstretch. Animal Trick stalked Smoke and Gloat half a length back on the inside going around the far turn, while Diamond Majesty made progress to close the gap on the leaders to a length. Down the stretch there was a three-way duel between Smoke and Gloat, Animal Trick and #1 Dr. Harlan at 4-1, before Animal Trick dug in inside in the last sixteenth to beat Smoke and Gloat by a length. Animal Trick paid $33.40 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $112.60.
There was a good result today for the Turf Program in race 5 at Tampa, a $25K claiming race for four-year olds at 1 mi. The Handicap Wizard had #3 Juan Pablo as its top selection with a total winning probability of 29.72%, which is close to where the horse went off at 3-1. Juan Pablo boasted the highest SPD in the field at 60.1% and a LP of 46.7%. In the race, #1 Lassiter at 30-1 led into and out of the first turn, thanks to early speed as reflected in his E1 and E2 estimates of 31.5% and 35.5%. Juan Pablo stalked on the inside about mid-pack down the back stretch, before starting his move around the far turn. Down the stretch, Juan Pablo found a path in the center and went on to win by two lengths. Juan Pablo paid $8.40 for the win. The program had the exacta and the tri-fecta among its top three selections with #6 Super Courage at 3-1 coming in second as the third selection and #1 Lassiter at 30-1 finishing third as the 2nd selection. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $158.70.
First of all, Happy New Year to all from the developers at Handicap Wizard! As a reminder, all users should create a new year folder for 2020 in their master directories for the card files, so that the program can continue to recognize the most recent ones when updating. When you do this, you will see the drop-down year menu on the MAIN sheet change to 2020 as the top year. New track folders for 2020 also have to be created. Otherwise, everything will function as before











