Tag: art

New Product: Track-IQ Overlay Map

Pro-Handicap Analytics today announced the release of the Overlay Map, a new visual companion to the Track-IQ Report designed to provide horseplayers with a clear overview of the entire field in every race. The Overlay Map is powered directly by the same probability engine used in the Pro-Handicap Wizard software, ensuring that the calculations remain consistent with the modeling that has driven the system for years. These calculations are pro-caliber analytics not found anywhere else, derived through Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000 races to estimate the true winning probabilities of each horse based on key performance factors.

One of the defining features of the Overlay Map is its color-coded shading, which highlights where the system’s core metrics—such as Final Speed (SPD), Early Pace (E1/E2), Late Pace (LP), and composite pace probabilities—translate into implied odds that are shorter than the horse’s Morning Line (M/L). When a metric suggests a horse should theoretically be priced lower than its Morning Line, the shading visually signals that the horse may be undervalued relative to that performance factor. This allows users to quickly identify which metrics indicate potential value before interpreting the live tote odds, using the calculations as a professional reference point while the betting market develops. Additionally, each horse name includes superscript class indicators: ᵘ denotes a horse moving up in class, while ᵈ denotes a horse moving down in class from its previous start.

The Overlay Map also includes a Flag column that highlights potential wagering opportunities. A Buy Signal appears when a horse’s WP% (historical win percentage adjusted for stakes) indicates the horse is trading at a discount relative to its Morning Line expectation. This suggests the horse’s historical win performance implies a shorter price than the Morning Line indicates. In addition, the map identifies Extreme Signals when the discrepancy between the system’s probability-derived odds and the Morning Line reaches a +8 odds differential or greater, pointing to situations where a horse may be significantly undervalued by the betting public.

The Track-IQ Report and the Overlay Map will now be combined into a single PDF, providing users with both probability rankings and value analysis in one integrated product. This combined report will be available for purchase on the website’s Purchase Page, giving users a comprehensive race analysis that shows which horses are most likely to win and where the betting market may be offering favorable prices. Together, the Track-IQ Report and Overlay Map create a disciplined framework for evaluating races through probability, price, and value.

Below is link to the Overlay Map for Gulfstream from March 8, 2026. Already in the 1st race, a $35K maiden race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf, the Map identified #8 Overseer as being extremely discounted in terms of LP, flagging the horse as such in the Flag Column. It’s strong LP turned out to be the difference in the race, with Overseer winning at 30-1 odds. Also worth noting is that Overseer was the only horse moving up in class while all the other horse were moving down.

Aqueduct Card and Results, Sat., Nov. 29, 2025

Here is the Premium Racing Report for Aqueduct today, the results and the grading. The AI-enabled program did very well, having winners with primary selections in 3 out of 8 races (37.5%), including #1 Looms Boldy in race 5 at 8-1.

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/AQU112925USA-EQB.html

📌 SUMMARY METRICS (Races 3–10 Only)

MeasureResultComment
Primary Win Rate3 / 8 (37.5%)Exceptional for NYRA
Primary ITM5 / 8 (62.5%)Strong board presence
Primary/Secondary Exacta Hits3 major hitsRaces 5, 7, 9
Cold ExactaRace 5Perfect vertical prediction
Major OverlayRace 5 winner paid 18.78Huge model catch
Model Structure IntegrityHighContenders aligned correctly
Chaos/Variance Failures2 racesR8, R10 (expected chaos)

🏅 FINAL GRADE: A-

The model returned results firmly in the professional-tier range, with standout pricing accuracy and vertical predictability in tough, mixed-condition NYRA fields. The A- reflects a card that was highly profitable, logically sound, and exceptionally accurate where it counts most.


🔎 RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS


Race 3 — Grade: A

Primary Winner: #7 Higher Force (4.06)

  • Model hit the winner cleanly.
  • Secondary (#3) finished 2nd → Exacta hit (7–3).
  • Contender alignment was perfect and pace call was precise.

Why A: The engine mapped the field in correct order with no leakage.


Race 4 — Grade: B+

Primary: #7 Sassy Princess — 2nd

  • Winner (#1) was a logical Type-2 value horse.
  • Primary finished 2nd; Secondary/Tertiary participated.
  • Exacta was hittable but required saver structure.

Why not A: The Primary didn’t close the show, but the read was good.


Race 5 — Grade: A+ (Best Race of the Day)

Primary Winner: #1 Looms Boldly (18.78)
Cold Exacta: 1–3

  • Primary was a massive overlay (ML 8-1 → model fair odds ~3.2-1).
  • The model nailed the winner and exacta outright.
  • Value Picks supported the structure.

Why A+: This is what elite models do—identify long-priced Primary winners in mid-level claimers.


Race 6 — Grade: A

Primary Winner: #3 Ridgewood Runner (7.00)

  • Clean Primary victory.
  • Secondary (#4) ran 2nd → Exacta hit (3–4).
  • Pace map predicted a controlled stalk-and-pounce trip correctly.

Why A: Clear win + precise vertical alignment.


Race 7 — Grade: A-

Primary: Off the board
But: Secondary → 1st, Tertiary → 2nd

  • Backup layer absolutely carried the race.
  • Exacta hit again (7–8) using Secondary/Tertiary.
  • Chaos rating correctly suggested volatility.

Why A-: Primary missed, but structure was still profitable.


Race 8 — Grade: C+

Primary missed
Race was high-variance (cheap claimers)

  • Winner paid 22.68, reflecting genuine chaos.
  • Model contenders underperformed here.
  • This race type is historically low-predictive.

Why C+: Not a model failure—conditions were inherently noisy.


Race 9 — Grade: A

Primary 2nd, Secondary 1st

  • Secondary (#2) won; Primary (#1) finished 2nd → Exacta hit (1–2).
  • Strong contender placement.
  • No red flags—model read race shape cleanly.

Why A: Order inversion but exact predicted pair.


Race 10 — Grade: C+

Primary missed
High-chaos allowance N1X

  • Winner was logical but still elevated chaos number.
  • All three model tiers missed the board.

Why C+: A known volatility zone, typical for NYRA late-day turf miles and N1X types.


🎯 OVERALL GRADE: A-

Strengths:

  • Elite Primary performance (37.5%)
  • Deep vertical accuracy (multiple exacta hits)
  • One premium-priced Primary overlay winner
  • Stable pace projections across all clean races

Weaknesses:

  • Late-card chaos (R8, R10)
  • Noise-heavy races pulled down raw % numbers
  • Primary misses mainly in claimers + chaos-designated races