Today at Oaklawn is the $1.5 mil. G1 Arkansas Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Rebel Stakes winner, #8 Coal Battle, who’s undefeated in his last four starts, #6 Sandman, who came in 3nd in the Southwest and 2nd in the Rebel, Southwest winner, #5 Speed King, and maiden winner and Baffert trained, #9 Cornucopian. The program is favoring Cornucopian at 7-5 with a total win probability of 34.68%, converting to theoretical odds of 9-5. The horse projects 1st in final speed with a win chance of 70.9% while having a COMP value of 95%. Though Cornucopian projections are dominant, he is lightly run with only one start and is jumping way up in class from a $110K maiden race to the G1 Arkansas Derby. He is also stretching out from 6f to 1 1/16 mi. Second is #8 Coal Battle at 7-2 with a total win probability of 22.26%, translating to theoretical odds of 7-2. Coal Battle projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 29.1% while having slightly elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.86%. Coal Battle has the second highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 25.2% behind #5 Speed King’s 29%. Third is #5 Speed King, who has a total win probability of 21.62%. That’s equates to theoretical odds of 9-2, well less than the M/L of 15-1. Therefore, Speed King will be a big overlay today. Speed King regressed in his last race in the Rebel in finishing 10th after winning the Southwest at Oaklawn in late Jan. Fourth is #6 Sandman at 3-1 with a total win probability of 7.83%, equating to theoretical odds 12-1. Sandman’s LP win estimate of 12.8% does not seem to reflect his late surge at the wire in the Rebel when he nearly caught Coal King at the 1 1/16 mi distance. This race comes down to whether Cornucopian can last the 1 1/8 mi. Cornucopian’s sire, Into Mischief, won a G1 at 1 1/16 mi in a fast time of 1:40.82. Based on the projections, Cornucopian should win the race fairly easily but will be challenged by Coal King and Sandman down the stretch. Only Speed King has a slight speed advantage on Cornucopian with E1 and E2 values of 47.6% and 52.6% but will have to rate better today to competete in this race at the longer distance. The final selections are #9 Cornucopian, #8 Coal Battle, #6 Sandman and #5 Speed King.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 