Here is the analysis for the G3 $250K LeComte Stakes at the Fair Grounds tomorrow, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. It’s a Kentucky Derby prep race worth Derby 42 pts. total at Churchill, with 20 pts. going to the winner The Track-IQ report for FGX tomorrow includes analysis of the $175K G3 Louisiana Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds.
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Race Breakdown
Stop the Car (ML 8-1; MO 3.4-1) – Primary
Stop the Car appeals here because he looks like a three-year-old who is still on the upswing rather than one who has already shown his full hand. He’s undefeated, but the more important takeaway is how he’s won — without being fully extended or chasing inflated figures. That kind of profile plays well at Fair Grounds, where the dirt tends to reward horses who can carry their energy through the lane instead of those built purely on early speed. This race doesn’t require a dramatic leap forward; it typically rewards a horse who progresses naturally at this stage of the season, and his form suggests that kind of steady development.
The projected shape of the LeComte Stakes also works in his favor. Several contenders want to be involved early, while others are dependent on a pace collapse, leaving a tactical horse with flexibility in an advantageous position. Stop the Car doesn’t need the lead, but he also doesn’t need help from a meltdown, allowing him to stay in range while others sort themselves out. That versatility is often the difference maker in this race. The case here isn’t about flash or résumé; it’s about fit, timing, and upside, and those factors line up cleanly for him on this stage.
#3 Crown the Buckeye (ML 4-1; MO +4.1-1) – Secondary
#3 Crown the Buckeye merits serious consideration as a competitor because his profile speaks to durability and adaptability rather than flash. He has already shown he belongs in deeper waters, and that experience can matter in a race where several entrants are still figuring out what they are. His form suggests a colt who can handle pressure and stay on when the race turns from positioning to resolve, which is often where Fair Grounds separates pretenders from contenders. If the LeComte becomes a test of who can maintain rhythm and composure through the final three furlongs, Crown the Buckeye has already demonstrated that kind of staying power.
#11 Chip Honcho (ML 9-2; MO 6.41) – Tertiary
Chip Honcho fits a different but equally legitimate angle. His appeal lies in tactical intent and forward placement without being reckless, a combination that can prove dangerous in a prep where others are either committed speed types or need significant help late. He doesn’t require a perfect setup to be effective; instead, he can secure position, conserve enough energy, and make the field react to him turning for home. In the LeComte Stakes, that sort of race-shaping presence often keeps a horse involved longer than the betting suggests. Together, Crown the Buckeye’s stamina profile and Chip Honcho’s tactical edge give them credible paths to impact the outcome, even if the spotlight falls elsewhere pre-race.
Video on Stop the Car
Pro-Handicap Analytics 