Today at Belmont at Saratoga is the $2 million Belmont Stakes, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. As the third leg of the Triple Crown, the race features the best three-year-olds in the country, including Kentucky Derby winner, #7 Journalism, Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, #2 Sovereignty, Kentucky Derby third place finisher, #6 Baeza, and Wood Memorial winner, #3 Rodriguez. The program has #7 Journalism at 8-5 on the M/L as its first selection with a total win probability of 32.36% (2-1 theoretical odds). Journalism projects first in final speed with a 46.1% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 27.9%. Second is Third is #6 Baeza with a total win probability of 17.97% (9-2 theoretical odds). Baeza projects 2nd in final speed with a win estimate of 31.32% while having elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 10.98%. Third is #2 Sovereignty with a total win probability of 17.24% (7-2 theoretical odds). Sovereignty is the class in the race with a win percentage of 36% following his win the Kentucky Derby and second place finish in the Florida Derby. Fourth is #3 Rodriguez with a total win probability of 11.98% (7-1 theoretical odds. Rodriguez projects third in final speed with a 13.4% win estimate while having a COMP value of 28.3%, indicating strength on a component level in the aggregate relative to the field. In the final analysis, Journalism appears in good form for a rematch with Sovereignty after the former’s thrilling come from behind win in the Preakness. The former horse projects first in final speed while also having a strong COMP 55.4% (equating to 4-5 strength). Journalism is coming off only three weeks rest whereas Sovereignty sat out the Preakness and has been off 35 days. With the track expected to be muddy today, Sovereignty may have the edge between the two horses after having defeated Journalism on the wet track by a length at the Kentucky Derby. Baeza is the second selection because of his final speed projection of 31.3%, but the horse finished behind Journalism and Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Bob Baffert Trained, Rodriguez, is in a position to be the spoiler today on the back of his win in the Wood Memorial when he recorded a 105 final speed figure. The horse did not race in the first two legs of the Triple Crown because of injury. The final selections are #7 Journalism, #6 Baeza, #2 Sovereignty and #3 Rodriguez.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 