Tag: kentucky-derby

Today at Pimlico is the second leg of the Triple Crown in Horse Racing, the $2 mil Preakness Stakes, run at 1 3/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. In the race is Kentucky Derby runner-up, #2 Journalism, Arkansas Derby winner, # 7 Sandman, Virginia Derby winner, #3, American Promise, Federico Tessio winner, #5 Pay Billy. As expected, the program has #2 Journalism at 7-5  as its first selection with a total win probability of 29.19%. The horse projects first in final speed with a win estimate of 42.2% and is the class in the race with an “in the money” win percentage of 34.6%. Second is #1 Goal Oriented with a total win probability of 15.62%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-1. Goal Oriented projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 22.2% (about 4-1 equivalent strength) while projecting first in LP with a win estimate of 48%. Having just two starts, Goal Oriented’s win percentage is just 5.5%, though. The third selection is #3 American Promise with a total win probability of 13.13%, translating to odds of 7-1. American Promise projects first in E1 and E2 but has the highest Coefficient of Variance at 18.69% and being bumped and recording a poor final speed figured in the Kentucky Derby. His win percentage is only 4.1%. Fourth is #8 Clever Again with a total win probability of 12.48%, converting to theoretical odds of7-1. Clever Again projects with strength across E1, E2 and LP and has a COMP value of 15.4%, signaling 6-1 strength on a component level in the simulation. In the final analysis, there is no reason to bet against Journalism who has done everything right in his career thus far except losing to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby on the wet track against a fast pace (opening half mile was run in 0:46). Journalism’s win percentage of 34.6% (2-1 equivalent in odds) tells the tale of this horse. However, Journalism has a threat in this race from Goal Oriented, who is undefeated in two starts after recording a 104 final speed figure in a $125K OC at 1 1/6 mi. on the dirt at Churchill two weeks ago. While having to step up against much tougher competition, Goal Oriented benefits from having Bob Baffert as his trainer, who has won the Preakness more than any other trainer in eight times. When American Promise is excluded from the calculations, whose erratic performance in Kentucky Derby skews the data for the field, Goal Oriented projections become even more impressive with a COMP value of 56.4% along having a low Coefficient of Variance of 4.1%. The horse’s jockey, Flavien Prat, won the Preakness once aboard Rombauer in 2021. American Promise is a tepid third selection after getting banged up in the Kentucky Derby and finishing sixteenth and thirty eight lengths back. The field size in the Preakness is close to what he faced in the Virginia Derby when he won. American Promise too benefits from having a Preakness winning trainer in Wayne Lukas (seven wins). Like Goal Oriented, Clever Again will be stepping way up in the class after winning the $200K Hot Springs Stakes at 1 mi. at Oakland at the end of March. This is after winning his $110K maiden in February. Clever Again is sired by Triple Crown Winner, American Pharoah.  The final selections are #2 Journalism, #1 Goal Oriented, #3 American Promise and #8 Clever Again.