Track-IQ Report

Overview –

The Track-IQ Report is a race analysis framework designed to translate complex probability modeling into a structured and usable form for handicapping decisions. It is generated by the Pro-Handicap Wizard engine, which applies large-scale race simulations, statistical probability estimation, and pattern recognition techniques to evaluate how a race is most likely to resolve. Rather than relying on isolated figures or subjective rankings, the model integrates multiple interacting variables—including pace structure, field composition, distance effects, surface behavior, and track-specific tendencies—into a single, coherent assessment of race dynamics. A dedicated turf model is employed to account for the materially different pace distributions and outcome patterns observed in turf racing.

Each Track-IQ Report follows a decision-oriented analytical structure grounded in established handicapping theory. Analysis begins with estimated true win probabilities for every entrant, derived from repeated simulation and probability aggregation. It then outlines the projected pace configuration of the race and identifies the runners most likely to influence that structure. From this foundation, the report highlights situations in which market pricing may diverge from modeled expectations. Central to this process is the use of Model Odds—an objective estimate of fair value generated after all relevant variables have been jointly evaluated. These odds function as a reference baseline, allowing risk to be assessed explicitly rather than inferred from raw figures or ordinal rankings.

The report is intentionally minimal in presentation. Information is organized to prioritize clarity, hierarchy, and functional use, with each section serving a distinct analytical purpose. This structure allows readers to quickly establish situational context while preserving access to the supporting metrics that inform each conclusion. The format accommodates both rapid review and deeper examination without requiring interpretive leaps or reliance on narrative framing. The result is a consistent analytical environment across races and cards.

A core component of the system is the proprietary Chaos Index, which provides a quantitative measure of race volatility. The index evaluates multiple structural characteristics of the field, including probability dispersion, pace-pressure balance, early-versus-late performance differentials, competitive clustering, and overlap among running styles. These inputs are combined through a multi-weighted, non-linear model to produce a single scalar value representing the degree of uncertainty embedded in the race. Lower readings correspond to more stable, form-driven scenarios, while higher readings indicate compressed or unstable configurations in which outcomes are more sensitive to variance. By summarizing complex interactions into a unified metric, the Chaos Index establishes a contextual baseline for evaluating both risk exposure and strategic opportunity

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Premium Racing Report Features
Race Notes & Horse Tiers (Primary, Secondary, Tertiary)

Each Track-IQ Report includes targeted race notes beside the Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary selections. These notes highlight the specific attributes driving a horse’s ranking: pace advantage, late-strength potential, track fit, longshot value signals, improving form cycles, or metrics that outperform the field. Rather than providing long, generic comments, the notes read like distilled insights—identifying the most meaningful reasons the horse belongs in that tier. Primary horses represent the strongest combined probabilities; Secondary horses offer competitive edges or solid value; Tertiary horses are conditional players shaped by pace flow, volatility, or price.

SPDadJ — Adjusted Final Speed

SPDadJ is a refinement of raw final-speed performance. It incorporates the 1,000-run simulation results while adjusting for track tendencies, distance nuances, surface characteristics, and historical variation. The result is a more realistic indicator of final-speed potential for today’s race—not just a reflection of past figures.

COMP — Composite Performance Probability

COMP is a proprietary combined metric derived from the individual win probabilities of SPD, E1, E2, and LP. Instead of treating those pace and speed elements independently, COMP synthesizes them into a single probability that expresses a horse’s overall competitive strength. This metric excels at identifying balanced contenders who may not dominate one category but perform strongly when the full picture is considered.

WP% — Win Percentage (Stakes-Adjusted In-the-Money Measure)

WP% measures how often a horse finishes in the money, adjusted for the stakes level of the races it has run. Higher purse values generally indicate stronger company, so the adjustment provides a clearer sense of how a horse performs when the financial and competitive pressure increases. Once converted into theoretical odds, WP% becomes a quick way to spot runners whose past performance is being mispriced — revealing longshots with hidden consistency or favorites whose record may flatter them.

CV — Coefficient of Variation (Risk Factor)

CV measures the instability and variance in a horse’s performance profile. A low CV indicates a consistent, reliable runner; a high CV points to volatility, upside, and uncertainty. CV is one of the most effective indicators of whether a horse is likely to run to form or capable of producing an unexpected performance—particularly valuable in high-chaos races.

How the PDF Is Organized & How to Read It

The Track-IQ Report is structured in layers so that horse players can gather insights quickly or explore deeper details as needed:

Race Header – identifies the race type, conditions, distance, and class, offering immediate context.

Chaos Index – the first read; signals whether the race leans toward form or volatility.

Horse Rankings – lists true win probabilities derived from simulation and AI modeling.

Primary / Secondary / Tertiary Selections – the core recommendations, supported by concise race notes.

Metric Table (SPDadj, E1, E2, LP, COMP, CV) – the analytical core behind the rankings, shown at a glance.

Value Indicators – highlight live overlays, underlays, and longshot potential within the field.

Readers can skim for actionable insights or examine the metric grid for deeper evaluation. The design is intentionally clean and minimal, ensuring the most meaningful information stands out clearly and immediately.

*Above PDF and Race Analyses Examples

The above is the first page of the Track-IQ Report for Churchill Downs (CDX) on Nov. 23, 2025. On this day, races 1 and 2 were excluded from consideration for being maiden races and lacking race data. Usually, mostly non-maiden races are shown in the PDF, though maiden races in certain cases will be shown when they have sufficient data. In the above example, #7 Scott’s Law was the winner in the 3rd, which had been identified as a value pick because of its discounted Win-Percentage adjusted for stakes converted to odds: ” (M/L 5.0-1 | WP%4,2-1)”. Scott’s Law final odds were 8-1/9-1, and the horse paid $18.52 for the win. In race 4, the primary selection, #5 Groveland, won at 5-1 as a significant overlay compared to Model Odds of 1.9-1. The horse paid $11.48 for the win.