Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.0 is now available for sale on the Purchase page. This latest version contains a combination of the mathematical approaches that have been developed since the program’s inception, including dual functionality between exponential smoothing and the standard approach in simulation, the TRIO estimate, which is a final speed estimate resulting from the sum of a horses’ simulated speed components (E1, E2 and LP), and Coefficient of Variation, which measures a horses risk in terms of the variance of its final speed figures relative to the mean. The exponential or EXP mode uses exponential smoothing in calculating the mean speed figures and standard deviations of the horses. This approach is well suited to capturing the form cycles of the horses by putting greater weighting on the most recent speed figures in establishing means and standard deviations in simulation. For recent results, see the HW 4.0 Studies page. Enjoy!
Month: May 2019
This Saturday features the second leg of the Triple Crown—the Preakness Stakes—at Pimlico, run at 1 3/16 mi. for three-year-olds on the dirt with a purse of $1.5 million. After the disqualification of the winner, Maximum Security, in the Kentucky Derby, his connections have opted to sideline him for this race. The horse that was elevated to the winner in the Derby, Country House, also will not be running in the Preakness due to illness. That leaves the field wide open, and the results show that is the case, with no horse having a winning probability higher than 17%. This means no horse is being valued less than 5-1. The Handicap Wizard is deferring to Signalman’s class and his highest winning percentage by assigning him the highest winning probability at 16.64%. Signalman placed third in the Blue Grass Stakes and first in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club back in November. While not having the highest final speed estimate, he has the highest E1 and E2 component estimates along with Market King, whose last race was a blow-out. Signalman set a new pace top (111) as a three-year old in the Blue Grass. Second is Anothertwistoffate with a 14.41% winning probability, who had place finishes in the Lexington and the Sunland Derby in his last two races. He closed especially well in the Sunland Derby, which is reflected in his 9.7% LP estimate. Third is Owendale at 9.67%, who put in a peak performance with a top 99 Brisnet final speed figure in the Lexington Stakes, when he left Anothertwistoffate behind. If this race goes according to peak last performance, Owendale would be the best choice, but he is on the riskier side after flopping two races ago. Taking out Market King, Improbable becomes the 4th choice, who is the second most winning horse after Signalman. He is the least risky horse in the field, but his peak performance of 100 Brisnet was four races ago. Alwaysmining should be in the conversation for his third highest final speed estimate 19%, but his component figures are relatively weak and he has below average class with a WP% of only 5%. He won the Federico Tesio at 1 1/8 mi. at Laurel his last time out in April with a final time of 1:50:12. Bodexpress should not be overlooked for his Fla. Derby effort, when he came in 2nd to Maximum Security. He gets a mulligan for his Kentucky Derby performance for having had to check from Maximum Security drifting out of his lane coming out of the far turn, when Bodexpress was in the leading pack of horses. Bodexpress has good pedigree as the son of Bodemeister, who finished 2nd in the Preakness and Kentucky Derby in 2012.
Race 7 at Santa Anita was a contest between the Prime Power Rating top, #5 Velvet Queen at 7-5, and the Handicap Wizard’s first selection, Holly Hundy at 2-1. In this $80K optional allowance race at 5f on the turf for three-year old fillies, Holly Hundy had dominant final speed (52.5%) and E1 (43.8%) and E2 (38.5%) estimates, while Velvet Queen’s final speed estimate was zero, though she had the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, in the field at 21.1%. Velvet Queen’s Brisnet Power Rating was 136.32 versus Holly Hundy’s 135.99. As the saying goes, “speed kills”, and so did Holly Hundy kill the competition in this race. After a quick opening quarter, Holly Hundy ran 3rd from last until the far turn, when she undertook a five wide bid at the top of the stretch that thrust her past the other horses. In the end, Holly Hundy won by 3 1/2 lengths, thanks to excellent jockeying by Kent Desormeaux. Holly Hundy paid $6.80 for the win. Velvet Queen was an “also ran”.
In what was a difficult race to handicap, where no horse was assigned a probability higher than 20%, race 4 at Churchill—a $87K allowance race over 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three-year olds and up—saw the Handicap Wizard hit the exacta straight with its selections of #2 Botswana and #8 Apreciado. Botswana was tied with Apreciado with the highest final speed estimate at 31%, but had the superior winning percentage of 20.5%. The LP advantage of Bluegrass Parkway was not enough, with Botswana holding off dual threats down the stretch to get the win. Botswana paid $10.40 and the $2 exacta paid $86.80.
In the following race, race 5 at Churchill, the Handicap Wizard hit the winner again with its top selection of #3 Chief-Know-It all at 2-1. He was at priced at a premium, having a winning probability of 25% (3-1 fair value) according to the program. Chief-Know-It-All paid $6.40.
Races 6 and 7 at Churchill also saw the Handicap Wizard’s top selection win. #5 D-Squared won in the 6th and #5 Conquest Windycity in the 7th.
Race 6 at Churchill, an $89K optional claiming race at 5.5f for three-year olds on the turf, saw a good result today for the Handicap Wizard with its top selection of #4 Fast Boat, who went off at a discount at 8-1 versus a winning probability of 21%. That put his fair value odds closer to 4-1. In addition to having the high speed estimate in the field at 32% (despite a performance dip in his last race), Fast Boat‘s E1 and E2 estimates rated second best behind those of Johnny Obvious. In the race, Fast Boast stalked until the quarter pole, when he shot to the front and never looked back. The horse paid $19.20.
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