Philosophy

This section is dedicated to expounding the philosophy behind the Handicap Wizard, so that users may understand better how the program works and how best to apply it to achieve winning results.

The literally millions of computations of the program are geared toward calculating win probabilities of horses, which are derived from a Monte Carlo simulation of final speed (SPD), early pace (E1), early pace 2 (E2) and late pace (LP) speed figures and a historical win percentage calculation that adjusts for the stakes amounts of races. These win probabilities can be compared directly to the implied win probabilities of the live odds. A handicapping edge can be achieved with this program by knowing the intrinsic value of horses and identifying opportunities from their under-pricing compared to their theoretical fair values.

Unlike with other handicapping software, which may employ a vague methodology with a weak or no mathematical foundation, there is a strategy that can be used with the Handicap Wizard that leads to a positive return on investment over time. This consists of taking competitive horses that are overlays, which can be identified by comparing the the horses’ theoretical odds to the live odds.

For obtaining the best results, the program ideally should be applied to horses that have positive expected Return on Investment (ROI) and also a reasonable chance of winning. When a race does not have horses with enough potential return to justify their risk, then it should be skipped altogether. Winning in horse racing depends not only on taking advantage of good opportunities, but also on avoiding bad risk and knowing when not to wager. The good news is that market pricing of horses is not very efficient and can be exploited by an accurate probabilistic program like the Handicap Wizard.