Who would have thought that today was as easy as betting on the Baffert Horse to win? That was how it went in the Pegasus World Cup at 1 1/8 mi. on dirt with #10 Mucho Gusto at 3-1 under the jockeying of Irad Ortiz Jr. upsetting #6 Higher Power at 5-2. The Handicap Wizard rated Higher Power as best in the field along with the market with a total winning probability of 15.38%, which made him an overlay. Mucho Gusto was a big overlay at 3-1 versus his winning probability of 7.98%. So why did the program miss Mucho Gusto? The main reason is that his speed estimates did not compare well against those of the other horses in the field, even though the horse posted three plus 100 final speed figures in his last starts. His consistency actually worked against him, which compressed the results of his final speed simulation into a tighter range, whereas Higher Power, War Story and Tax all projected better with more risk. Mucho Gusto did have the third highest Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, but it did not help him being under 10%. His last workout at Santa Anita on Jan. 16 was solid at 1:11 for 6f. As predicted in the preview, War Story did offer value in the race, going off even higher than expected at 15-1 versus his 10.9% total win probability. Had Joel Rosario not allowed the horse to get many lengths behind in the early stages of the race, War Story would have been in a better position to get place instead of having to settle for show. And another of the horses recommended in the preview, #8 Mr. Freeze, did better than expected by coming in second at 7-1.
Month: January 2020
On Saturday is the $3 Million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four year-olds and up. Following the scratches of two favorites in Omaha Beach and Spun to Run after the post positions were announced, the field is now at ten, but has only two G1 winners in #6 Higher Power and #4 Seeking the Soul. Consequently, the field is much weaker than it should be, and it shows in the model results, with none of the horses having a winning probability higher than 16%. The top selection is Higher Power at 15.95%, who has the highest winning SPD estimate at 24.3% and the second highest Winning Percentage at 17.6%. However, value is unlikely to be found with Higher Power after the scratches. Even though it has the highest WP in the field at 31.7%, the last race Seeking the Soul won was the G2 Stephen Foster at Churchill last June. Since then, he has not placed better than 4th, with two 6th place and one 7th place finish. In view of his win in the Harlan’s Holiday at 1 1/16 mi. at Gulfstream in December, #7 War Story deserves consideration as a win contender and is cheap according to his M/L price of 30-1. This has to do with his low Winning Percentage of 5.4%; however, his winning SPD estimate of 17.8% coupled with a low CV ratio of 6% indicates that his fair value is closer to 5-1 than 30-1. Additionally, he has the second highest LP in the field at 17.6%, which is favorable to the distance of this race. Otherwise, the COMP figures are showing #12 Bodexpress, #8 Mr. Freeze and #1 True Timber to have strength at 27.6%, 18.8% and 18.5% versus M/L odds of 30-1, 20-1 and 15-1, respectively. Bodexpress has done well at Gulfstream, placing 3rd in the Harlan’s Holiday and 2nd in the Florida Derby last year behind eventual Kentucky Derby Winner, Maximum Security. Mr. Freeze has hit the board in his last three graded stakes races, including a 3rd in the G1 Clark Stakes at Churchill in Nov. and a 2nd in the G2 Fayette Stakes at Keeneland in October, both at 1 1/8 mi. True Timber is similar to Mr. Freeze, in that he has also hit the board in his last three with all show finishes. including in the G1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct in December and in the G3 Bold Ruler at Belmont in October. However, True Timber is light in the LP category at only 5.9%, so it is unclear whether the horse can compete at the 1 1/8 mi. distance. In sum, Higher Power is the first choice in the race, thanks to his highest in the field SPD estimate of 24.3%, but he will be pricey at anything below 3-1. War Story offers better value, followed by Mr. Freeze and Bodexpress.
Oaklawn Park kicks off today with the $150K Jones Stakes—the first of three Kentucky Derby prep races at the track—run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The contest appears to be wide open, with no horse receiving higher than a 20% winning probability according to the program. The top selection is #2 Silver Prospector, who has the 2nd highest winning SPD estimate in the field at 33.8% and the second highest LP estimate at 36.4%. The horse also has the second highest Winning Percentage at 14.1%. However, given its 5-2 price on the M/L, Silver Prospector is on the expensive side. #6 Gold Street may well be the pick to click in this race with its 5-1 M/L price versus a total winning probability of 19.46%, making him a slight underlay. He has a higher winning SPD estimate at 38.4%, respectable E1 and E2 figures of 22.0% and 16.8% and a solid COMP estimate of 39.1%. The CV value of 15% can be excused, when he has improved in his last four races. #7 Shoplifted also deserves consideration, in view of his highest-in-the-field Winning Percentage of 25.6%. By that measure, he would be at fair value at 3-1, but his SPD estimate does not stack up as well to that of Silver Prospector and Gold Street. He has good consistency, though, with a CV ratio of only 4%, which is second lowest in the field after #6 Lynn’s Map. #9 Three Technique may be the best horse in the field after winning his last two. He is being undervalued in the model because of his last SPD of 81, but he won that $80K OC race at Aqueduct in November by four lengths. Three Technique has had bullet workouts in January.
There was a spectacular result today in 3rd at Fairgrounds, a $5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years old and up. At 21-1, #4 Heart of Soul was being neglected by the market, even though she had good data showing early speed that made the horse competitive in this kind of race. Her E1 and E2 estimates from simulation were 31.6% and 18.2% with a 22.0% COMP figure. The COMP figure was solid because of Heart and Soul’s Coefficient of Variance ratio of only 7%, indicating that the horse had relatively low risk. On that basis, the horse was fairly valued at 4-1 compared to its price of 21-1. The market favored #7 Blondie Lox Babe at 5-2 and #9 Lady Fitzgerald at 7-2 because of their superior Winning Percentages at 27% and 20%. Lady Fitzgerald also had the edge in final speed at 63.5%, but had no evidence of early speed. In the race, Heart of Soul broke well from the gate to take the early lead. She remained in the driver’s seat on the back-stretch, around the far turn, and into the final stretch, when she led by two lengths. Digging in, she held off a late challenge by #5 Kehron’s Creed at 7-1 to get the win. Heart and Soul paid $45.20. This was an example of using advanced handicapping techniques with the program and it paid off nicely.
The Handicap Wizard had good results in both graded stakes races at Gulfstream today. In the $150K Mashua River Stakes in the 8th, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for four year-old fillies and mares, the program had it as a toss up between Magic Star at 5-2 with a 24.86% winning probability and #5 Andina Del Sur at 2-1 with a 24.84% winning probability. Magic Star won the race, thanks to a 29% SPD estimate and a dominant 77.5% LP estimate, which was favorable for the longer distance of this race. Magic Star paid $7.00 for the win. Andina Del Sur finished 3rd by under a length.
In the 10th race, the $100K Tropical Turf Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and upwards, the Handicap Wizard Turf program had #8 Thread of Blue as its top selection with a total winning probability of 41.36%, which was in-line with its 8-5 odds. However, the highest COMP estimates in the field went to #4 Gidu at 37.1% and #6 Tusk at 19.6%. Even though the horses had low Winning Percentages at 2.6% and 3.8%, their COMP estimates were solid because of the low Coefficient of Variance of both horses at 5% and 4%, respectively, implying high confidence in the COMP figures. Again, the COMP estimate is the result of a simulation of E1, E2 and LP added together. By that measure, both horses were overlays relative to their 6-1 and 8-1 odds. As it turns out, Tusk was the winner and Gidu finished second. Tusk paid $19 for the win. The $2 exacta paid $131.20.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 