Month: June 2020

It was a day of surprises at Santa Anita on Saturday in two of the graded stakes races. Even though he had won the race nine times before, HOF trainer, Bob Baffert did not have the winning horse in the Santa Anita Derby in the 8th with #7 Authenticate, even at 1-2 odds, while a 92-1 horse in #2 Grinning Tiger won the $75K Crystal Water Stakes in the 7th on the turf.

Although neither horse finished in the money, #3, Shooters Shoot, at 20-1 and #4, Anneau d’Or, at 16-1 both ran competitively in the Santa Anita Derby. They took the early lead together and continued to lead until the quarter pole, when the favorite, #7 Authenticate, pushed forward. These horses would have finished in the tri-fecta had the race been 1/16 mi. shorter, but it was ultimately, #6 Honor A.P. at 5-2, who won the race on a late surge, thanks to his strong late speed which was highlighted in the preview.

Where the fireworks really went off was in the 7th race in the Crystal Water Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf, with #2 Grinning Tiger upsetting massively at 91-1. Although the horse had a low winning percentage, which explained its high odds, he had a 10% final speed estimate according to the simulation and E1 and E2 win estimates of 84.7% and 47.9%. With those numbers, it was assured that the horse would be leading in the early part of the race and could build a formidable lead. This is what happened in the race, with Grinning Tiger taking the lead out of the gate and maintaining it all the way until the quarter pole, when his momentum took over to carry him to the finish line. Even though the horse was 91-1, he had a 17.66% win probability as a third selection and had an astounding 1,543% expected Return on Investment, one of the highest values ever. This is exactly the type of horse the philosophy of the Handicap Wizard emphasizes, one that is a significant underlay but also has a reasonable chance of winning, which Grinning Tiger did according to his speed data and total win probability of 18%. The results were computed using the Turf Program.

Race 7: Crystal Water Stakes

Race 8: Santa Anita Derby Odds and Results

 

Here are the projections for today’s $400K G1 Santa Anita Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The program gives the edge to #3 Shooters Shoot with a 25.30% win probability followed by #4 Anneau D’or at 21.36% and #7 Authentic at 19.53%. Although coming off a maiden win and another win in an $80K OC in April, this will be a big step up in stakes for Shooters Shoot, who while having speed on the front-end lacks the Winning Percentage of the other horses. The horse rated best in the simulation according to final speed at 30% but with a fairly high Coefficient of Variation of 11%. The 3rd selection in Authentic was second highest according to SPD at 23.2% but with a Coefficient of Variation ratio of just 4%, pointing to lower risk. Judging by the Shooters Shoot’s COMP estimate of 58.2%, the horse has a good chance of running away with this one if he can get enough of an early lead. #6 Honor A.P. is a late threat with an LP estimate of 29.5%, who came in second to Authentic by two lengths in the San Felilpe in April. The wild card in this race is Anneau D’or, who recorded a field high final speed figure of 102 in a second place finish at Santa Anita last November in the BC Juvenile, indicating the horse has the most potential speed in the field. However, Anneau D’or will have to do much better than his performance in the Arkansas Derby in May, when he came in 5th by 9th lengths. The trainer, Wright, is only a 5% graded stakes winner. 

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