Month: December 2023

The Handicapwizard had some excellent results yesterday at both Tampa and Gulfstream. In the 9th at Tampa, a $16K handicap at 1 mi. on the turf, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection in #7 Cannon’s Roar at 17-1. Its total win probability was 16.28%, translating to a fair value of 6-1. The horse had a high COMP at 54.8%, suggesting strength at the component level in the aggregate, as well as the highest win percentage in the field at 13.6%. On the basis of its win percentage alone, Cannon’s Roar was a 7-1 horse but went off at 17-1. This is exactly the kind of setup a handicapper should be looking for in a race in having the first selection be an overlay.

At Gulfstream the Grey Program had the winner in the $125K Rampart Stakes in the 5th with #3 Maryquitecontrary at 2-1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CG_c10-3Tns

In the G3 Harland’s Holiday in the 10th, the program had the exacta order reversed with its top two selections of #3 Grand Aspen at 7-2 and #6 O’Connor at 10-1. Just before the wire O’Connor surged ahead of Grand Aspen , who had been leading down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $93.80.

The Grey program had a good result in the 3rd at Tampa Bay today, a $5K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares, having the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #6 Musical Cat at 3-1 and #3 Shall Return at 5-2. The $2 exacta paid #36.80.

The program also had the winner in the 6th with #1 Gotts Got It at 2-1.

The Handicapwizard had an excellent result today in the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, having the exacta order correct with its top two selections, #11 Hoist the Gold at 8-1 and #3 Senor Buscador at 7-2. The implied probability of getting the exacta order correct was only 3%.