Month: February 2024

The program once again had the winner in the 10th race at Oaklawn, the $600K G3 Razorback Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #5 Octane at 5-1 with a total win probability of 19.79% (about 4-1 equivalent). The favorite was #8 Magic Tap at 2-1 with a total win probability of only 7.6%. The horse was the class in the race, though, with a win percentage of 18.1% and came in second. Octane paid $13 for the win. The race illustrates the importance of the simulation results for SPD, with Octane not only having a high SPD estimate but also low risk with a a CV of 3.93%. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for the full-size image in the center.

The program had the winner with its first selection of #1 Run Classic in the $125K Gulfstream Park Sprint at Gulfstream today in race 11. Run Classic at 4-1 had a total win probability of 27.89% (about 5-2 equivalent) and the highest SPD win estimate of 46.8% (about 1-1 equivalent) along a LP win estimate of 90.3%. As projected, the horse showed great late kick to run down the field and win in exciting fashion. Run Classic paid $10.20 for the win. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for the full-size image in the center.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEwgOhBEHJ0

The program had the exacta order correct in another race, this time at Aqueduct in the 5th, a $16K claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years-old and up. The first selection was #7 Whistler’s Style with a total win probability of 18.48% versus odds of 4-1. The second selection was #6 Divine Cross with a total win probability of 16.06% compared to odds of 10-1 (overlay). The $1 exacta paid $64.75. This race is a remarkable result for the program because Whistler’s Style as the first selection had a very low SPD win estimate. It was the horses E1 and E2 win estimates that boosted the horse in the final calculation.

Here is another excellent result today, this time in the 4th race at Oaklawn, a $150K allowance race at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The program had the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #11 Favorite Outlaw at 9-1 and #1 Breslau at 10-1. The $1 exacta paid $32.80. This result came in a twelve-horse field.

The program had a nice result today in the 5th race at Gulfstream, a $10K claiming race run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares four-year-old and up. The first selection was #1 Worldly Beauty with a total win probability of 30.19% (comparable to about 2-1) versus odds of 5-1. Worldly Beauty held off a late challenge by #9 Nothing But Pumps at 4-1, who received a FIT2 checkmark for its superior LP win estimate of 58.1%. This is precisely the kind of race setup a handicapper should be looking for with a first selection as an overlay.