At 1-1 odds #10 Fierceness won the $1 mil. G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream today. Fierceness was the program’s first selection. The second place horse was #7 Catalytic at 29-1 and the third #4 Grand Mo the First at 24-1. The program correctly had Grand Mo the First as the third selection. #2 Hades surprisingly did not perform up to expectations as the second selection even though the horse had won all three of his starts at Gulfstream, including the Holy Bull. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.
On Saturday is the $1 mil. Florida Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features a few graded stakes winners, including Holy Bull winner, #2 Hades, who is undefeated in three starts, BC Juvenile winner, #10 Fierceness, and Swale Stakes Winner, #1 Frankie’s Empire. The program has #10 Fierceness as the favorite with a 33.14% win probability, translating to theoretical odds of about 2-1. That compares to 8/5 on the M/L. Fierceness’s career so far has been hit and miss. The horse broke its maiden in its first race while putting up a final speed fig of 101. Next, it had an off-race in the Champaign Stakes only to bounce-back in the BC Juvenile in November in winning it. Consequently, the horse has high risk, as indicated in his Coefficient of Variance of 16.26%—a high value for any favorite. The second selection is #2 Hades with a 13.59% total win probability, equating to theoretical odds of 6-1 versus 7-2 on the M/L. Hades projects second in final speed behind Fierceness at 24.1% win probability (3-1 equivalent) and has a win percentage of 10%. Third is #4 Grand Mo the first with a 11.75% total win probability. That translates to theoretical odds of 8-1 compared to 15-1 on the M/L. Fourth is #1 Frankie’s Empire with a 10.84% win probability, equating to theoretical odds of 8-1 versus 12-1 on the M/L. Frankie’s Empire projects third in final speed at 18.4% win probability (5-1 equivalent). This race comes down to whether Fierceness is going to show up and run his race when he has had an erratic history so far in his career after coming in just 3rd in the Holy Bull as a heavy favorite in that race. Hades, on the other hand, has done no wrong in three starts, winning all three, including the Holy Bull at Gulfstream his last time out in early February. Both Hades and Fierceness have the same amount of days since their last race at 56. Grand Mo the First may be the sleeper in this race after losing to Domestic Product in the Tampa Bay Derby in early March by a head. He showed high late speed with a LP figure of 122 in a race that had no pace. As a late runner, he may be in a good position in this race in view of its 1 1/8 mi. distance. In the final analysis, Hades seems to be a better choice over Fierceness not only because he’s undefeated, but also because he’s won all three races at Gulfstream. Grand Mo the First could be a threat down the stretch with his late kick, even though Hades is no slouch, putting up a 106 LP value in the Holy Bull in beating Domestic Product by two lengths. Given that both Fierceness and Hades are projecting as underlays compared to the M/L, Grand Mo the First deserves a look with theoretical odds of 8-1 compared to the M/L of 15-1. The one horse whose statistics do not justify its M/L price of 3-1 is #9 Conquest Warrior. However, the horse has won its last two starts, with the latter at the $75K level at a time of 1:502 over 1 1/8 mi. Conquest Warrior is the only horse who has run at the 1 1/8 mi.
Brad Cox trained, #5 Catching Freedom at 7-2 won the $1 mil. Louisiana Derby yesterday, going from first to last in an upset. Previously, Catching Freedom had finished 3rd in the Risen Star behind #12 Track Phantom and won the Smarty Jones. Benefiting from a solid opening pace of 23.49, the horse swung wide around the far turn and catapulted to the lead down the stretch. During Catching Freedom’s move, #7 Honor Marie was on his inside and finished second. Statistically, Catching Freedom did not have a lot behind him, with a final speed estimate of 9.1% (10-1 equivalent) but a 14.0% win percentage (6-1 equivalent). The late strength by Honor Marie was projected in his field-high LP estimate of 31.8% in spite of the horse regressing in his last race. It seemed Honor Marie was in a better spot in this race in his second start off the lay-off. Though disappointing, Track’s Phantom’s performance at this distance of 1 3/16 mi. was foreseeable, as the horse did not project at all with late speed (only 0.7% for LP), rather all of the horse’s speed was upfront. The horse was bet down to 2-1 for having had two wins and one place finish in three graded stakes races. Honor Marie was a good choice for a bounce-back after winning the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill as a two-year old, but Catching Freedom was a bit of a surprise in showing late speed to such a degree he had not shown before. The program’s first selection, Common Defense, could not repeat his miracle run in the Rebel after his second place finish behind Timberlake at 27-1 odds.
Today at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana is another Kentucky Derby prep race in the $1 mil. Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features Lecomte Winner and Risen Star Stakes runner-up, #12 Track Phantom, Rebel Stakes runner-up, #8 Common Defense, and Smarty Jones Winner, #5 Catching Freedom. The program is favoring #6 Common Defense with a total win probability of 24.11% (6-1 on the M/L), translating to theoretical odds of 3-1. #6 Common Defense projects first in final speed with a 37.5% win estimate along with having the highest win percentage at 20.2%. The second selection is Track Phantom at 3-1 on the M/L with a 18.43% total win probability (4-1 theoretical odds), who projects second in final speed with a 28.3% win estimate. Third is#4 Agate Road with a win probability of 11.10%, equating to theoretical odds of 8-1, which is exactly where the horse is on the M/L. The race appears to be between Common Defense and Track Phantom, but #7 Honor Marie should not be ignored with the highest LP win estimate of 31.8%, who might be best suited for the 1 3/16 mi. distance. Catching Freedom is also worth considering for finishing right behind Track Phantom in the Risen Star in February. The selections are #6 Common Defense, #12 TrackPhantom, #4 Agate Road and #7 Honor Marie. To see the image in full resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i’ in the bottom right-hand corner. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.
The Grey program had a nice result in the 5th race at Gulfstream, a $35K maiden race at 1 mi. off the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. The first selection was #8 Mobay Princess with a total win probability of 27.77% (5-2 equivalent theoretical odds) versus odds of 11-1. The second selection was #4 Sizzle with a 22% total win probability (7-2 equivalent) versus odds of 7-2. In the race, Mobay Princess led much of the way before she was overtaken down the stretch by Sizzle, thanks to a strong late kick (100% LP value). The $1 exacta paid $41.60. Even though there was not a lot of data to go off, Mobay Princess was still greatly mispriced, going off at 11-1 with a 5-2 theoretical value. The horse projected 1st in final speed with a 37.2% winning estimate in the simulation (8-5 equivalent) and was tied for having the second high win percentage at 19.5% (4-1 equivalent). The race shows the value of having an accurate handicapping program like Pro-Handicap Wizard that identified Mobay Princess as a strong horse in the field despite having high odds of 11-1.
Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.3 