Tomorrow is another Kentucky Derby prep race in the G3 $250K Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay, run at 1 1/16 mi on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features three stakes winners in #3 Patriot Spirit at 6-1, who won the $100K Inaugural at Tampa in early December, 6 Agate Road at 7-2, who won the G2 Pilgrim at Belmont at the Big A in early October, and #7 Copper Tax at , who won $100K races at Laurel in December and Delaware Park in October. The program is favoring #3 Patriot Spirit with a total win probability of 22.16% (about 7-2 fair value), thanks to his final speed win estimate of 38.9% (9-5 equivalent)—the highest in the field. The horse has the highest E1 and E2 win estimates at 31.6% and 44.9% but an LP value of just 0.3%. The second selection is #7 Copper Tax at 5-1 with a total win probability of 14.55%. Copper Tax has the highest COMP value at 69.5%, signalling that he has strength in his component speed figures (e1, e2 and lp) versus the field in the aggregate in the simulation. Third is #4 Crazy Mason with a total win probability of 13.05%, who has the highest LP win estimate in the field at 51.2%. In the final analysis, this is a wide open race that should favor the speed horses in #3 Patriot Spirit and #7 Copper Tax. #6 Agate Road is the class in the race with a winning percentage of 16.4%, who is coming off a 2nd place finish in the $125K Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream on the turf in early January. The horse’s 0% SPD win estimate is deceiving, as his last race had a slow early pace while the horse finished strongly for second with a 96 LP value. In terms of long shots, #2 Tireless and #12 Elysian Meadows are worth a look because of their pedigree. Tireless’s sire is Not this Time and Elysian Meadows‘ is City of Light, winner of the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup in his final two starts. Elysian Meadows is undefeated in two starts.
With this preview, you will notice that a significant addition has been made to the chart for Total Win Probability in that the odds translated from the win probabilities are now shown next to the names of the horses. These odds can be compared by the users to the live odds to determine whether the horses or under- or overlays. The new version will be available soon. To see the image in full resolution, click on the image and then on the encircled i on the bottom right. Then scroll down slightly and click on the full resolution link in the center.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 