Tomorrow at the Fair Grounds is the $400K G2 Risen Star Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features Kentucky Jockey Club winner, #3 Honor Marie, Remsen runner-up, #4 Sierra Leonne, Smarty Jones winner, #8 Catching Freedom, and Lecomte winner, #12 Track Phantom. The program is favoring #3 Honor Marie as its first selection with a total win probability of 18.82%, making it an underlay at 3-1 on the M/L. Honor Marie is the class in the race with a win percentage of 19.65% (4-1 equivalent) and has the third highest SPD win estimate of 23%. The second selection is #4 Sierra Leone with a total win probability of 17.44%. Sierra Leonne has the highest SPD win estimate at 36.3% (2-1 equivalent), though its risk is elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.7%. The third selection is #6 Real Men Violin. The horse has a total win probability of 15.8% compared to its M/L of 8-1. Real Men Violin has the second highest SPD win estimate at 25.7% but has high risk with a CV value of 11.9%. In the final analysis, these horses are all green, like those we saw last week in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa. Honor Marie is sitting in the driver’s seat after winning the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill back in late November but Sierra Leone is a serious challender after coming from well off the pace to nearly get the upset against Dornoch in the Remsen in early December. Keep in mind that the total win probabilities of the top two selections are still low at 18.8% and 17.4%, which means that the race is fairly wide open along with there being limited past performance data on these horses.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 