Here are the projections for tomorrow’s G2 $1.25m Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three year olds. The program is favoring #7 Timberlake with a 46.03% total win probability, equating close to 1-1 odds. Note that the horse’s morning line is 1.2 or 6/5, showing how accurate Pro-Handicap Wizard’s theoretical odds are as an independent program. Timberlake appears to be a classic horse, projecting 1st in SPD in the simulation at 86.5%, 1st in E2 at 58.7% and 1st in LP at 53.1%. The horse is also the class in the race with a win percentage adjusted for stakes of 20.7% (4-1 equivalent). With its dominance, Timberlake looks set for victory and should go off at a short price. To see the image in high resolution, click on it and then click on the encircled “i” in the bottom left hand corner. Then scroll down slightly and click on the link for full-size view in the center.
Tomorrow at the Fair Grounds is the $400K G2 Risen Star Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features Kentucky Jockey Club winner, #3 Honor Marie, Remsen runner-up, #4 Sierra Leonne, Smarty Jones winner, #8 Catching Freedom, and Lecomte winner, #12 Track Phantom. The program is favoring #3 Honor Marie as its first selection with a total win probability of 18.82%, making it an underlay at 3-1 on the M/L. Honor Marie is the class in the race with a win percentage of 19.65% (4-1 equivalent) and has the third highest SPD win estimate of 23%. The second selection is #4 Sierra Leone with a total win probability of 17.44%. Sierra Leonne has the highest SPD win estimate at 36.3% (2-1 equivalent), though its risk is elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.7%. The third selection is #6 Real Men Violin. The horse has a total win probability of 15.8% compared to its M/L of 8-1. Real Men Violin has the second highest SPD win estimate at 25.7% but has high risk with a CV value of 11.9%. In the final analysis, these horses are all green, like those we saw last week in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa. Honor Marie is sitting in the driver’s seat after winning the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill back in late November but Sierra Leone is a serious challender after coming from well off the pace to nearly get the upset against Dornoch in the Remsen in early December. Keep in mind that the total win probabilities of the top two selections are still low at 18.8% and 17.4%, which means that the race is fairly wide open along with there being limited past performance data on these horses.
The Turf program had a good result today in the 9th race at Gulfstream, a $25k allowance race at 1 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years old and up. The first selection was #3 New Rome, who had a total win probability of 35.83% (9-5) equivalent versus odds of 5-1. The horse had the highest SPD estimate of 53.6% and the second highest Win Percentage (WP) of 18.6.%. New Rome led most of the way and won by one and a half lengths. The horse paid $13.60 for the win.
That was a puzzling result today in the Sam F. Davis with #5 No More Time getting the win at 3-1?? It’s quite remarkable that a horse who had only a maiden win until this point was able to best this field of eleven, including three horses that had won graded stakes races. No More Time had hardly anything statistically to show before for the win with a winning percentage adjusted for stakes of just 4.7% (19-1 equivalent). On the other hand, #6 Agate Road finishing second was more believable because of his class (16.4% winning percentage was the highest in the field) even though most of the horse’s wins had come on the turf previously and not on dirt. The race illustrates that sometimes even with the best modelling random walk occasionally does happen, even in the big races with horses you would think would be reliable with their performance based on past performance. The riskiness of the race is evident in the elevated average CV ratio of the field, which was 9.57%. Eight of the twelve horses had CV values of 9% or higher. In high dollar graded stakes races with mature horses, that average risk indicator is lower, meaning the horses are more predictable quantitatively. Two variables that the handicapper always needs to be mindful when handicapping is data integrity (the amount of data present) and risk or the CV values of the horses.
Tomorrow is another Kentucky Derby prep race in the G3 $250K Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay, run at 1 1/16 mi on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features three stakes winners in #3 Patriot Spirit at 6-1, who won the $100K Inaugural at Tampa in early December, 6 Agate Road at 7-2, who won the G2 Pilgrim at Belmont at the Big A in early October, and #7 Copper Tax at , who won $100K races at Laurel in December and Delaware Park in October. The program is favoring #3 Patriot Spirit with a total win probability of 22.16% (about 7-2 fair value), thanks to his final speed win estimate of 38.9% (9-5 equivalent)—the highest in the field. The horse has the highest E1 and E2 win estimates at 31.6% and 44.9% but an LP value of just 0.3%. The second selection is #7 Copper Tax at 5-1 with a total win probability of 14.55%. Copper Tax has the highest COMP value at 69.5%, signalling that he has strength in his component speed figures (e1, e2 and lp) versus the field in the aggregate in the simulation. Third is #4 Crazy Mason with a total win probability of 13.05%, who has the highest LP win estimate in the field at 51.2%. In the final analysis, this is a wide open race that should favor the speed horses in #3 Patriot Spirit and #7 Copper Tax. #6 Agate Road is the class in the race with a winning percentage of 16.4%, who is coming off a 2nd place finish in the $125K Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream on the turf in early January. The horse’s 0% SPD win estimate is deceiving, as his last race had a slow early pace while the horse finished strongly for second with a 96 LP value. In terms of long shots, #2 Tireless and #12 Elysian Meadows are worth a look because of their pedigree. Tireless’s sire is Not this Time and Elysian Meadows‘ is City of Light, winner of the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup in his final two starts. Elysian Meadows is undefeated in two starts.
With this preview, you will notice that a significant addition has been made to the chart for Total Win Probability in that the odds translated from the win probabilities are now shown next to the names of the horses. These odds can be compared by the users to the live odds to determine whether the horses or under- or overlays. The new version will be available soon. To see the image in full resolution, click on the image and then on the encircled i on the bottom right. Then scroll down slightly and click on the full resolution link in the center.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 