As mentioned in the preview earlier, #10 Uncle Heavy at 9-1 was able to get the upset in the Withers Stakes. Ranked as the third selection by the program, Uncle Heavy showed his superior speed to take down #4 El Grande O at the wire. El Grande O was the second selection. Uncle Heavy paid $20.60 for the win. The $2 exacta with the #10 and the #4 paid $92.50.
The main turf race at Gulfstream on Holy Bull Day is the G3 $175K Kitten’s Joy, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The first selection is the M/L favorite #9 Noted with a total win probability of 28.07%. That compares to 8/5 on the M/L, making the horse a bit overvalued. However, Noted has a solid final speed projection at 43.0% (7-5 equivalent) in the simulation and relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.98%.
Tomorrow at the G3 $250k Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, run at 1 1/8 mile on the dirt for three-year olds. The Handicap Wizard Grey Program is projecting #5 Seminole Chief as its first selection with a total win probability of 26.65% (3-1 fair value), who is at 10-1 on the M/L. It is surprising that Seminole Chief would have such a high M/L considering it is the class in the field with a winning percentage of 24.2% (3-1 fair value). However, Seminole Chief has a somewhat high Coefficient of Variance on its final speed figures of 10.24%. Interestingly, the horse has the high COMP figure of 48.4% indicating that the horse has (2-1) strength on a component level in the aggregate according to the simulation. Second is #4 El Grande O with a total win probability of 18.3% versus 5/2 on the M/L, making the horse an underlay. The horse has the highest final speed estimate according to the simulation at 31.7% (2-1 equivalent) but is third in win percentage at 17.3%. The third selection is #8 Uncle Heavy with a 17.8% total win probability (4-1 equivalent) versus 10-1 on the M/L. Uncle Heavy has the second highest final speed estimate at 27.3% (3-1 fair value) along with a win percentage of 18.2% (4-1 equivalent). Uncle Heavy is coming off a win after getting the upset in a $200K graded stakes race at Parx in December in the mud. Of the three top selections, Uncle Heavy is showing the most value as a 4-1 projected horse. Even the folks at DRF in their preview of the Withers yesterday said Uncle Heavy has the talent to win the Withers. What’s mystifying in this race is the M/L favorite of #3 Lightline at 8/5 on the M/L when the horse does not have the data in the simulation or the win percentage to support that low M/L. The horse has two second place finishes in $80K and $100K claiming races at Oaklawn and Keeneland in its last two races. In the final analysis, both Seminole Chief and Uncle Charlie are showing value while the M/L favorite in Lightline and #4 El Grande O are projecting as overlays.
Here are the projections for the G3 $250K Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream tomorrow, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The first selection is #7 Fierceness, the winner of the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita as a two-year-old. The horse dominates in all metrics and has a total win probability of 61.01% percent, close to its M/L price of 3/5. On a final speed basis, the horse projects at a 62.3% win estimate, translating again very close to 3/5 on the M/L. That M/L doesn’t come out of thin air but captures the statistical projections of this race well for the favorite.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 