The program had a good result today in the 2nd race at Tampa, a $12.5K claiming race at 6.5F on the dirt for three-year-olds. The programs first two selections were #4 Smart Joker at 3-1 with a total winning probability of 20.52% (7-2 equivalent odds) at and #6 Final Verdict at 5-1 with a 19.45% winning probability (4-1 equivalent odds). The order of finish was reversed, with Final Verdict winning by a head over Smart Joker. The $1 exacta paid $37.20.
Among the non-maiden races on dirt yesterday at Gulfstream, the program had winners with its first selection in 3 out of the 5 races (3rd, 9th and 10th), including in the one graded stakes race in the $100K Hutchinson Stakes in the 3rd. The program also had the place horse with its second selection in 6th with #2 Moonrise Drive at 34-1 compared to 5-1 theoretical odds.
Race 3
Race 10
Race 11
Race 6
We are pleased to offer a product upgrade in PHW 4.3 Grey. For the first time the program displays the theoretical odds of the horses as converted from the win probabilities. The theoretical odds are fractional and shown in their own column next to Total Win Probability (TOP) and in the Total Win Probability chart next to the horses’ names on the bottom-left. This addition to PHW’s calculations allows easy comparisons of the theoretical odds to the live odds so that the user will be able to spot overlays and underlays in no time. Below are the results of the program from the 4th race at Gulfstream on Saturday, a $100,000 Handicap race run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year olds and up, in which the program had the winner with its first selection in #10 Exact Estimate. At odds of less than 5-2, the horse was an underlay compared to its theoretical odds of 7-2, which can be seen in Column T. The program is available on the Purchase Page under Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.3 Grey. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for full-size image in the center.
The program had an excellent result in the 6th today at Gulfstream, a $16K claiming race run a 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt four four-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #1 Goodbetterbest with a total win probability of 33.35% (2-1) equivalent versus odds of 8-1, making it a heavy overlay. The horse projected second in final speed with a 41.6% win estimate (along with low risk) and had a win percentage of 18.2% (about 4-1 equivalent). Additionally, Goodbetterbest had a 60.8% COMP value (4-5 equivalent), signaling significant strength in the horse’s components in the aggregate compared to those of the other horses. In the race, Goodbetterbest led for most of the way and went on to win easily by three lengths. The race illustrates how patience pays off in waiting for the right setups in races with the odds in one’s favor.
In the 7th race, a $16K claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for four-year-olds and up, the program had the winner with its first selection, #7 Frank’s Art, at 7-2. The horse had a total win probability of 36.84% (9-5 equivalent) along with having the highest final speed estimate of 43.3% (6-5 equivalent) and highest win percentage at 37.5%. The horse’s COMP value was also strong at 55.9%. Frank’s Art went wire to wire in the win, holding off a late challenge by #4 Gilded Age at 5-1.
The program had an excellent result in the Tampa Bay Derby, having the top three finishers with its first three selections, though the order of the first two was reversed. The model’s second selection, #5, Domestic Product, came in first while its 1st selection, #7 No More Time, came in second. The third selection, #9 Grand Mo the First, came in third. Tampa Bay Downs experienced a tote delay following the running of the Florida Oaks in the 10th due to an tote outage on the East Coast. The tote delay prevented the odds of the horses from being shown during the race. Wagers could not be placed.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 