The program had a nice exacta result in the 5th at Gulfstream today, a $50,000 optional claiming race for three-year olds, with its first two selections of #1 Crystal Quest at 7-2 (5-2 theoretical odds) and #7 Private Thoughts at 5-1 (4-1 theoretical odds). Not that the selections were ahead of the live odds favorite, #6 Marceau, at 2-1. The $1 exacta paid $29.10.
If the result at race 1 at Tampa today with the second selection could not be topped, the result in race 2 at Gulfstream was equally thrilling with the program’s first selection, #2 Seminole Chief, winning at 17-1. It was a $75K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi off the turf for three-year olds. Seminole Chief had a 19.07% total win probability, equating to theoretical odds of 4-1, making the horse a substantial overlay. Though the horse had not done well in its previous race, it still was the class in the field with the highest win percentage at 19.1% (4-1 equivalent) and had the highest win estimates in E1 and E2 of 54.6% and 59.8%. Seminole Chief led for much of the way and went on the win by a length. The program nearly had the exacta, with #1 Beyond Stokes, its second selection, coming in third.
In the first race at Tampa, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/6 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years old and up, there was an amazing result with the program’s second choice of Krabi wiring the field at 37-1. Krabi had a total win probability of 15.86%, equating to theoretical odds of 5-1. Besides having the highest E1 and E2 win estimates of 67.7% and 59.5%, Krabi had a 46% COMP value (almost 1-1 equivalent). There were some things not to like about the horse such as its recent form and high Coefficient of Variance of 17.37%, signalling above average risk, but regardless the horse was heavily discounted, even above odds it should have gotten for its win percentage alone, offering huge value. Krabi paid an incredible $77.80 for the win. Again, this race shows how trusting the calculations in the model can pay off handsomely when the odds heavily favor the statistics.
Today at Tampa Bay is the G3 $400K Tampa Bay Derby, a Kentucky Derby prep race worth 50 pts. for the winner. It is run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features Sam F. Davis Winner, #7 No More Time, and Holy Bull runner-up, #5 Domestic Product. The program has No More Time as its first selection with a total win probability of 31.80%, translating to theoretical odds of about 2-1 compared to the M/L of 5-2. No More Time projects first in final speed with a 51.8% win estimate and has the highest win percentage at 18.1%. Second is Domestic Product with a total win probability of 17.86% (9-2 equivalent) versus the M/L of 3-1. Domestic Project projects second in final speed with a 27.7% win estimate (about 3-1) but first in LP at 48.2% after recording a 108 LP in the Holy Bull. Third is #9 Grand Mo the First with a 17.09% win probability (9-2 equivalent) versus the M-L of 10-1. In the final analysis, the first two selections in No More Time and Domestic Product largely follow the M/L ordering and pricing as the top two horses. Grand Mo the First has had two third place finishes in stakes races in the Swale and Zuma Beach and will need to step it up against this field. Of the green runners, #4 Good Money is drawing some interest at 6-1 on the M/L as a son of Good Magic, with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding and Chad Brown as the trainer. He is lightly raced with a win in his only start in a $53K maiden race at 7f on the dirt at Tampa in late January. To see the image in full resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i’ in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the line for full-size image in the center.
Since handicapping is not always about taking first selections, one can see in the 7th race at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 5.5f on the dirt four four-year-olds, how the program can be used as an effective handicapping tool with others horses besides the first selection. #8 Amor Lejano was the third selection with an 18.25% win probability, translating to theoretical odds of 9-2. This compares to 9-2 on the M/L and 8-1 in the live odds. What was attractive about Amor Lejano was his 33.1% final speed win estimate in the simulation against the field, equating to 2-1 strength in terms of odds while the horse’s risk was low with a Coefficient of Variance of 3.27%. That meant the SPD estimate was very reliable. The horse also had a 37.5% COMP value (9-5 strength), which reinforced the SPD estimate. So, for a horse that was projecting with 2-1 strength in the simulation according to two metrics, it was offered at 8-1. Win Percentage needs to be considered as well, which was not great at 8.2% but still passable. The decision comes down to whether Amor Lejano speed projections could be believed; they could because of the horse’s low risk. The race shows the importance of paying attention to the component estimates in addition to total win probability. This includes the LP value, which was decisive in the race for Amor Lejano with a high value of 41.6%, for which it received a FIT2 checkmark.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 